Aurea

The ‘Board of Peace’ started World War 3 so fast.

Iran was not going to attack the USA. There was no imminent threat. They will not even bother to prove one, because what are you going to do about it?

in 1953, iran was a democratic nation that had recently nationalized its oil industry and expelled the brits.

as a result, the CIA supported a coup and installed the shah.

everything that happened in iran is a direct result of this intervention at the behest of foreign capital.

Store name: Shinpuku Saikan Moriguchi Branch
Location: Osaka City
Menu: Shoyu Ramen + Mini Yakimeshi + Gyoza

#青空ラーメン部
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#青空ごはん部
#外食班

GM and TY Ray 🩵👋

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YouTube video by KarlStudios1 Neil Diamond - Sweet Caroline High Quality neildiamond

Shoutout to all in the Denver area: like folk music?

Come see my band perform—with a guest appearance by some old guy!—April 36th, at Swallow Hill.

I *might* need help with this song…😌

youtu.be/1vhFnTjia_I?...

Frankly, who can blame them?

Should go fill up my car.

"Your breath first kindled the dead coal of wars and brought in matter that should feed this fire; And now ’tis far too huge to be blown out with that same weak wind which enkindled it."

King John,
(Act 5, Scene 2)

#ShakespeareSunday

Ashton Canal, Ancoats, Manchester, 1978.

'The Third Man' (1949) film noir classic, directed by Carol Reed, written by Graham Greene, Cinematography by
Robert Krasker. 🎬

#FilmSky

Brian Brake, Temple in Autumn, Kyoto, 1963.

IRAN'S WAR: SIDE-EFFECTS. The uncertainty triggered by the war in Iran could linger for much longer. Traders should brace for many anxious weekends to come. (Econ)

Markets were already nervous before the weekend. On Friday oil closed at $73 a barrel, the highest since July. This was about $10 above what supply-demand fundamentals would justify, says Tom Reed of Argus Media.(Econ)

In early February the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, predicted a supply surplus of 3.7m b/d on average for 2026. Instead, rising tensions in the Gulf, together with tighter Western sanctions, have caused prices to rise by around 20% this year.(Econ)

Regional conflict &, in particular, a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz—which carries around 15m barrels per day (b/d), roughly a third of global seaborne flows—could push prices towards $100.(Econ)

Israel’s initial attacks last summer, largely spared Iran’s energy facilities & the country’s exports, which account for 4% of global seaborne flows, which are not vital to global supply. US’ intervention was brief; Iran’s response, symbolic. (Econ)

This time, Trump says, “…will continue uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary to achieve our objective.” And Iran’s retaliation is far more serious. In the past 24 hours it has rained missiles on Israel, its Arab neighbors & US bases in the region.(Econ)

How panicked traders get, & for how long, will hinge on Iran's next target in the Gulf. First, its strikes, which it has described as self-defense, hit only US military assets. Then, they have also reached ports, airports & other civilian infrastructure across the region.(Econ)

Under an existential threat, Iran’s leadership—or what remains of it—may see dragging its Gulf neighbors into the crisis as one of its few means of forcing America back to the table.(Econ)

Several oilfields in Saudi Arabia, the UAE & Kuwait are within range of Iranian missiles & drones. They are sprawling and so hard to defend. An Iranian attack on Gulf oil would invite retaliatory strikes from neighbors, which first called for de-escalation. (Econ)

In the early hours of operation explosions were heard near Kharg Island, from which most of Iran’s oil exports depart, though they appear to have targeted infrastructure other than oil terminals. Things could get much noisier there.(Econ)

Even if output is spared, the second unknown is whether it can get to market. Hormuz has never been closed to maritime traffic, even during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. (Econ)

Choking Hormuz off would antagonize China, which buys nearly all of Iran’s oil and receives 37% of its seaborne crude imports through the Strait. Iran seems intent on cutting off the strait anyway. (Econ)

On Feb. 17, during nuclear talks with US, Iran closed the narrow conduit for a few hours for live-fire naval drills as a demonstration. On Feb. 28 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps- IRGC, broadcast warnings that shipping through the strait was no longer permitted. (Econ)

American forces would probably dismantle any blockade of the strait within hours. Yet the strait is fast becoming unnavigable anyway. Satellite jamming is disrupting ships’ signals, raising the risk of collisions. (Econ)

Iran could deploy mines to make navigation even more hazardous. In the early hours of March 1st the Skylight, a Palau-flagged tanker blacklisted by America, was hit by a rocket off the coast of Oman. (Econ)

Insurers are raising rates or cancelling policies for ships attempting the journey. At least five giant tankers due to transit Hormuz to pick up oil in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar & Iraq in early March, made u-turns on Feb. 28, says Kpler, a ship tracker. (Econ)

Vast clusters of idling tankers, wary of crossing a war zone, are forming on both sides of the passage. Already high freight rates could rise further.(Econ)

Alternative routes are of limited use. Saudi Arabia can redirect barrels via its East-West pipeline; the UAE has a smaller conduit bypassing the strait. Even at full capacity, however, some 8m-10m b/d would remain exposed, estimates Jorge León. (Econ)