It’s time for China to allow large renminbi appreciation - OMFIF The renminbi exchange rate is woefully undervalued – an impediment to overhauling China’s distorted growth model and a major contributor to global trade tensions. While it is no secret that the curren...

It's high time for significant appreciation of a hyper-undervalued RMB. My thoughts on why China should move now to make it happen.👇

www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...

Great article and a perspective that decidedly warrants close consideration and reflection!

Flawed IMF external policy and exchange rate work - OMFIF The International Monetary Fund just released its flagship 2025 External Sector Report. Despite much to praise, this report is a missed opportunity, highlighting major flaws in the Fund’s external and...

The IMF's External Sector Report falls short mainly b/c the Fund soft pedals its China work. It needs to take a stand on China's BOP data or multilaterally consistent #s won't add up. It should berate US more over misguided fiscal/trade policy. My thoughts👇

www.omfif.org/2025/07/flaw...

How Immigration Could Muddy the Jobs Numbers

Ahead of the jobs report @bencasselman.bsky.social and I looked into how Trump's immigration policies make it hard for the Fed to know if the labor market is weakening, putting a divided central bank in a more fraught position as it debates rate cuts www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b... @nytimes.com

Financial authorities should responsibly sell their gold stocks - OMFIF Gold prices are up roughly 25% this year alone. The European Central Bank reports that gold has overtaken the euro as the second largest reserve asset

Official gold diversification & the feverish run-up in gold prices could be built on sand. It's largely b/c authorities keep massive stocks off market, ineptly managing national balance sheets. Time for authorities to sell gold stocks & use the proceeds.
www.omfif.org/2025/07/fina...

Thanks for using OMFIF survey as one of your sources.

Great thread. Thanks for wading through this for readers. Extremely valuable.

Wow! Thanks.

Bessent’s inaugural FX report could better connect dots - OMFIF Scott Bessent’s Treasury released its first Foreign Exchange Report on 5 June. The report was accompanied by much chest-thumping Trumpian rhetoric about unfair foreign practices. But it also delivered...

A belated, wonky, soporific & arcane piece for diehard US Treasury and FX watchers.

Where Bessent's Trump 2.0 inaugural FX report gets it right & falls short in not connecting the dots.

www.omfif.org/2025/06/bess...

The G7 is at a critical crossroads - OMFIF The G7 could well face an existential crisis at the Kananaskis summit because of US President Donald Trump.

G7 faces existential crisis at Kananaskis.👇

www.omfif.org/2025/06/the-...

You can lie about statistics and you can make up assumptions.

But numbers must add up. It's called arithmetic.

Today’s global imbalances aren’t what they used to be - OMFIF US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and G7 finance ministers recently called on the International Monetary Fund to bear down on ‘global imbalances’.

Global imbalances are B-A-C-K. A US/G7 focus. But what lies behind today's imbalances is different than two decades ago. China/US remain at the heart, but China's contribution is different & the US is a far bigger problem.

www.omfif.org/2025/05/toda...

Nice piece!

US interest rates rising, dollar easing, massive budget deficits need to be financed, Rs promise to defend dollar’s reserve role.

The BBB answer — penalize foreign investment in the US!

What??? How dumb is that???

Excellent piece, worth reading!

Fed framework review should tackle communication issues - OMFIF The Federal Reserve’s five-year review of its monetary policy framework is well underway and should be wrapped up by late summer

Some thoughts on the Fed framework review and Fed communications. Too much of a good thing?

www.omfif.org/2025/05/fed-...

Ukraine's economic outlook amid Russia's invasion - OMFIF Vladyslav Rashkovan, Ukraine’s representative in the International Monetary Fund and former deputy governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, joins Mark Sobel, OMFIF’s US chairman, to discuss Ukraine’s...

Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former central bank deputy governor, joined me/OMFIF, to discuss Ukraine's econ progress including with the IMF, future econ orientation, donor & reconstruction needs & disposition of blocked Russian CB/oligarch assets.

www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...

Bessent’s first 100 days: a less than lustrous start - OMFIF The US Treasury is one of America’s most venerated institutions and all eyes were on Scott Bessent as he assumed the department’s reins in late January.

Scott Bessent’s first 100 days. Despite seemingly playing a behind-the-scenes role in curbing fallout from some of the Admin’s chaotic policies, Bessent’s start has been less than lustrous. 👇

Do readers agree?

www.omfif.org/2025/05/bess...

6-9

Are the dollar’s days really numbered? - OMFIF Questions about whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs spell the end of dollar dominance and the safe-haven status of US Treasuries

The dollar’s future was the buzz at the IMF/WB Spring Meetings.

Paraphrasing Mark Twain, reports of the dollar’s death are exaggerated.

But then again, Team Trump appears to want to kneecap the dollar. 👇

Agree of disagree?

www.omfif.org/2025/04/are-...

Will the dollar remain king? - OMFIF Paul Blustein, author of King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency, joins OMFIF to discuss his latest book and thoughts on why the dollar has been, continues to be and will rem...

Paul Blustein joins OMFIF/me to discuss his latest book, “King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency.” We discuss why the dollar dominates, alternatives, stablecoins, cryptocurrency, financial sanctions, and what Trump may mean for the $.
www.omfif.org/podcast/will...

The IMF is a fantastic deal for America If the U.S. steps back from the IMF, there will only be one winner: China.

And also re-upping this piece with the start of the IMF/WB Spring Meetings on why the IMF is a fantastic deal for America, thanks to THE HILL.

thehill.com/opinion/fina...

With delegates across the globe coming to DC for the IMF/WB Spring Meetings, re-upping this scenesetter piece.

www.omfif.org/2025/04/sear...

The IMF is a fantastic deal for America If the U.S. steps back from the IMF, there will only be one winner: China.

Huge thanks to THE HILL for running this piece on why the IMF is a fantastic deal for America.

A great joy to be reunited with former colleagues Meg Lundsager and Elizabeth Shortino in support of the Fund.

thehill.com/opinion/fina...

Searching for non-existent answers at the spring meetings - OMFIF Delegates from across the globe will descend on Washington DC on 21 April for the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings.

The upcoming IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. Stagflation, trade mayhem, global market chaos.

Some scenesetting thoughts.👇

www.omfif.org/2025/04/sear...

Wake me up when it happens.

Great piece by Steve Kamin.

The Treasury basis trade rears its head again [FREE TO READ] Bills and bonds and Treasury basis trades, oh my!

Risk-free ... Almost ...

on.ft.com/3XQvfBo

Congrats to Brent!

Dynamic duo! Two of the very best international political economy commentators on global monetary issues.

‘The Tsunami Is Coming’: China’s Global Exports Are Just Getting Started A staggering $1.9 trillion in extra industrial lending is fueling a continued flood of exports that could be spread even wider across the world by the Trump tariffs.

Once again, your regular reminder that 🇨🇳 & the RMB cannot replace 🇺🇸 & the USD at the center of the international monetary/financial system while Xi/🇨🇳 insist on running massive current account surpluses, subsiding exports through its state-owned financial system, & using extensive capital controls.