Kos Samaras

Yep :-) Not as far right leaning as QLD. But the whole country is centre/centre right in general with inner urban electorates leaning left

0 being far left. 10 being far Right - it’s a zero to 10 chart

Our latest MRP. This time, each seat based on voters self reported ideology. This neatly illustrates why QLD is politically different to Victoria. More detail to follow.

Why the polls are what they are. Exhibit A.

Similar statistics are likely to be found in other states as well, underscoring a nationwide crisis of financial strain. The political consequences of this level of economic pain, unprecedented in recent decades, are inevitable and profound.

Labor’s foreign policy gestures alienate both Jewish and Muslim Australians Strong statements on the Middle East will not mitigate the potential loss of support from the once rusted on communities that now have other voting options.

Labor has tried being friends to all sides. But it has found itself with no friends. My latest contribution in the Financial Review.

www.afr.com/politics/fed...

Will Labor learn from Trump’s working class win? - ABC listen Since Donald Trump won the US election, there’s been a fair bit of debate about how he did it. One theory is the Democrats have all but abandoned the working class and Trump made them feel seen.  So...

I joined the ABC News daily podcast to explore the parallels between Trump’s victory and Australian politics. In short, we’re likely to see similar expressions of discontent from low-income communities at the ballot box.

www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

3/ Their population has grown by 1.2 million—double the increase seen among generationally established Australians.

This week, we’ll publish an MRP analysis that will shed light on how these two states may further transform the electoral landscape. Prepare for a few surprises.

2/ For nearly two decades, Queensland has been the epicenter of internal migration, while New South Wales and Victoria have led in external migration—and this shift is now influencing electoral outcomes.

George highlights a critical statistic driving this change: the children of migrants.

1/ This essay is essential reading for anyone preparing for the upcoming federal election. The political center of gravity in Australia has shifted back to the southern states. Previously, Queensland was the key swing state, but that dynamic has changed.

Labor MP gets sanctioned by Meta for promoting school students and their families receiving state government support. Schools saving bonus for every student.

Meta are a bunch of freaks.

Farewell Baby Boomers as Gen Z and Millennials become Australia's key voting force The era of Baby Boomers as the dominant voting force in Australian politics is at an end and the impact will play out at the next federal election. If you listen carefully, you can already hear that p...

There is a new electoral boss in town and they don’t buy politics like baby boomers.

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11...

The By - election in the Victorian State Seat of Prahran will be super telling.

1. Greens arresting their stagnate and declining vote.
2. Labor proving that they can counter the pending loss of outer urban seats with seats like this.
3. Liberals proving they have a pulse in this part of Melbourne

Rental affordability worst on record, costing more than 30pc of incomes in Sydney, Perth Tenants in two capital cities are paying more than 30 per cent of their income, on average, towards their rent — for the first time since the SGS Economics Rental Affordability Index was first publish...

They are not becoming more conservative as they age. They are more interested in seeing the system torn down. Housing is the cause.

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11...

Why I empathise with asylum seekersThe forgotten humanity in the boat people debate - Neos Kosmos Privilege blinds us to the courage and humanity of those who risk everything for a life of safety. As a nation built by migrants, we should honour this resilience rather than let fear obscure our comp...

Why I empathise with asylum seekers.

Our latest poll in the Daily Telegraph shows both major parties locked at 50% two-party preferred.

Labor’s primary vote has stabilised, primarily due to strong support in inner and middle urban electorates. However, significant challenges remain. Outer suburbs, regions and diverse communities.

It’s a great book

Why Are Poor Americans Voting for the Party of the Rich? Podcast Episode · Ones and Tooze · 15/11/2024 · 43m

Worth a listen. There are 3 classes across western democracies, the tension between the 3 matter and differ slightly between countries.

podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/o...

They may wish to not be boring right now. Otherwise they will join Harris at this rate.

Tune into ABC RN drive at 5pm (AEDT). Jonathan Pearlman and I will join be discussing the US elections, Greens electoral challenges and federal politics with Andy Park.

The townhouse has become the modern day equivalent of a three bedroom house with a backyard. The tastes of most Australians, including Victorians, have shifted regarding what makes an ideal home.

*It normally takes months for any policy idea to cut through.

Jacinta Allan’s call to action, aiming to be the Premier who gets Millennials into home ownership, seems to have resonated quickly. Thurs Resolve poll.

Victorian Labor's policy on encouraging more townhouses has the support of 57% of Victorians surveyed. More telling? 48% Coalition voters. 1/

The Australian Indian diaspora is a cultural, political, and economic game-changer. Some in the private sector and media fully recognise their influence and actively engage with this hugely impactful demographic.

I think this front page is a first in Australia and it's great to see.

In the US Dems have set themselves up as the establishment, viewed by many as the party of the elites and neo liberal institutions. Obama broke that trend, he was an outsider.

Yes, but the Hispanic vote has been migrating to the GoP - 2016, 2020 and now. But the trend has been accelerating since 2012.

Well if you don’t fix it for the working poor and the working class, they keep moving to the Right. Progressive economics slows this process down.

Worth getting a hold of this paper from NLM. The move of low income/working class to the Right in the US is driven by culture. The fix? The economy (stupid).

How you vote now comes down to one variable above all Electoral allegiances have changed so much, poll watchers have had to come up with new names for political brands. So, do you vote GAL or TAN?

www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...

His study, following the federal election in May 2022, found it showed a continuation of “major sociodemographic shifts in voting patterns based on gender, generation and social class, with significant implications for the future of the major parties”

3/

“Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University, who oversees its Australian Election Study, a large-sample survey of voters following every federal election, says we’ve been gradually moving the same way since the 1990s.

2/

Education driving Right/Left flips electorally.

Why Labor MPs in once safe seats are sitting on time bombs. The Liberals had theirs detonate in 2022. Question is, how long before Labor experiences the same. I would say, it could be a soon as two electoral cycles away.

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