Martin Jucker

Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has shifted towards its positive phase owing to ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This Review discusses the dynamics, trends and projections...

New review led by @ariaan.bsky.social on climate effects of the Southern Annular Mode, the most important mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Read it in @natrevearthenviron.nature.com at doi.org/10.1038/s430... 🧪 #academicsky #climate #climatechange

BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 | Page 6 The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 Highlights include: - Another Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 2025; - 2025 ACCESS Community Workshop:...

In the latest edition of the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, I am taking another look at this year's Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I think it had more of an impact than I thought it would back in September. viewer.joomag.com/bamos-vol-38...

Tropical Cyclone #Fina as seen by GFS forecasts. #sciviz

Look at that cloud band connecting Vietnam with Alaska and a tropical storm (#fengshen) with a high-latitude storm. #weather #sciviz from martinjucker.com/viz

Two hurricanes hugging. #Humberto #Imelda

Abnormally hot days may hit Australia’s south-east after rare sudden warming over Antarctica Phenomenon extremely unusual in southern hemisphere and last occurred in 2019 when it contributed to worsening of black summer bushfires

Online:
- The Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
- Sydney Morning Herald: www.smh.com.au/environment/...
- NewScientist: www.newscientist.com/article/2497...
- Yahoo News: au.news.yahoo.com/the-rare-wea...)
- SBS News: www.sbs.com.au/news/article...)

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia) Weather event above Antarctica sees 30-degree rise in air temperature | ABC NEWS

and here some more online SSW stories:

On TV:
- ABC News: youtu.be/iYWjZEn1_w8?...
- Channel 10 News+: youtu.be/f8YyLXAPxTo?...

Visualisation of the southern hemisphere with the south pole on top, and above the pole the cold polar vortex being pushed to the side by a patch of warming over the southern ocean.

Busy days around what might become to be known as the 2025 Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Loads of media interest, and thanks to the journalists who take their time to talk to me before writing their story. Happy to take some of mine in turn. theconversation.com/air-temperat...

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia) Weather event above Antarctica sees 30-degree rise in air temperature | ABC NEWS

and here’s the link. took me until now to find it ;) youtu.be/iYWjZEn1_w8?...

Thanks to ABC TV News Channel for the chat about the stratosphere, sudden warmings, and the weather to come!

wait, is there another typhoon following #Ragasa (1) and #Neoguri (2)?

Super Typhoon #Ragasa definitely has an eye. Here seen from relatively low-resolution GFS data. But there’s also some wild dynamics happening all over the Pacific. #weather #sciviz

A computer image of Super Typhoon Ragasa and Typhoon Neoguri.

Busy Western Pacific right now. Cat 5 (Ragasa) and 4 (Neoguri) not far from each other. I wonder whether the strong tropical Pacific activity could be linked to the unusually weak Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex at the same time? 🤔 #sciviz #Ragasa #Neoguri

finally we’ve done it. grand final winners 2025 ⚽️🏆now I’m ready for summer sports.

anyone in need of a reminder how stupid AI is?

yes. it’s loving us very much!

rendering of clouds and winds in the Tasman Sea.

I propose calling the current low pressure system the Heart Low. This is what the forecast looks like for later today. 🤍 #sciart #weather

Clearer skies a prime driver of heating

aapnews.aap.com.au/news/clue-to...

YouTube video by Martin Jucker New Intro (Garage Band version)

I’ve had some time in the plane to finish my next Garage Horns video. Sweet and short, and five times me! 😎🎷 youtu.be/5RAJNDsZKXU?...

Former senator's global warming claims misrepresent physics: experts Outgoing Queensland senator Gerard Rennick claims global warming could not occur because it goes against the laws of physics, but experts say his claims misunderstand how CO2 warms the earth.

This was an interesting piece of work with George Driver from the AAP: debunking stuff which sounds very sophisticated, gets many things right, and is still completely wrong. Hopefully an insightful read 🧪 aapnews.aap.com.au/news/former-...

So proud of my (now former) student Valentina Ortiz Guzman who just submitted her thesis 🥳🎉 This is not just her first PhD submission, but also my first submission as primary supervisor. So loads of firsts for everyone!

Major disaster from three years ago could impact Australia's winters for years The eruption happened more than 1200 days ago, but we could start to see the strongest impact from this year.

Here’s a good writeup about this (with a focus in Australia) from Kamilia Palu: au.news.yahoo.com/major-disast...

Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models We use a cyclone-tracking algorithm to study precipitation produced by extratropical cyclones and identify five global hotspots of extreme precipitation: the well-known Pacific and Atlantic storm tra...

A new study by @drjucker.bsky.social and colleagues reveals climate models show strong dry biases on eastern continental coasts due to convective representation and dynamics. Caution is advised when using climate models to assess rainfall trends in these regions.
Read more: doi.org/10.1002/qj.5...

5. We suggested there might be a relation between the volcano and the evolution of ENSO. I think this one is still out there and I'm excited to see new, more comprehensive model simulations slowly coming out and pointing to similar ideas. 5/5

4. On the other hand, the larger ozone hole observed in spring 2023 did evolve as predicted, and the resulting positive Southern Annular Mode might well have been the reason the 2023-24 southern hemisphere summer was not as expected from the co-occurring El Nino. One prediction come true? 4/5

3. We might never know the actual, isolated climate impact because it gets drowned in all these other effects. Maybe this means it had no effect, but that would be wrong in the sense that a similar eruption in a more stable period (past or future) might still have measurable impact. 3/5

2. I would expect current sea surface temperature anomalies to dominate over any regional influence the volcano might have had. So I don't think the "weird" weather we are seeing in many places around the globe should be attributed to Hunga Tonga. 2/5

1. most important of all, and in accordance with all other research related to Hunga, we do not expect any measurable effect on global mean surface temperatures. Thus, none of what is and has been happening in terms of global mean temps in the recent past can be attributed to Hunga Tonga. 1/5

Long-Term Climate Impacts of Large Stratospheric Water Vapor Perturbations Abstract The amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere after the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) was unprecedented, and it is therefore unclear what it might mean for surface c...

It's been a year since our study on the Hunga Tonga volcano came out (doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...), and given we're entering the period where our simulations suggested regional impacts, I thought I'd add a few thoughts: 0/5

thanks @acaciapepler.bsky.social, Greta Paget, Caleb Burke, @ccrc.bsky.social. So exciting to get into the dynamics of weather systems. more to come!