Luigi Scazzieri

🔟 Finally there is a question of attention. The Roadmap is the latest of a long series of EU defence documents, which are quickly forgotten. The priority should be tangible progress on readiness

9️⃣ Then there is a question on funding. The provisional agreement on EDIP is good news but this is only about €1.5 billion until the next MFF. The Roadmap refers to plans for more defence spending in the next MFF, but does not in itself announce new funding sources

8️⃣ A third question is about non-EU allies. The proposed process does not account for the contribution of non-EU allies, especially Norway and the UK. Capability gaps will look bigger without their contribution. I doubt an EU process can work well without a mechanism to involve them somehow

7️⃣ A second question is whether the governance of EU projects is appealing to Member States. The decision over whether to place an existing capability coalition under an EU framework will be driven by the balance between the funding on offer by the EU and the level of added administrative complexity

6️⃣ One question is the degree to which MS will take the new planning process seriously and provide the necessary data. Strengthening EU planning would also mean allocating more human resources at the national level, as well as strengthening EUMS and EDA

5️⃣ Finally, the Roadmap tries to track progress. There are milestones to assess progress in all these efforts, with many targets in 2026. There will also be an annual stocktaking process feeding directly into the October European Council with a Defence Readiness Report

4️⃣ In parallel to coalitions filling gaps, EU funding will also focus on 4+ broader Flagships (Drone Defence Initiative etc). The key difference with the capability coalitions is that these are more diffuse projects, not purely about ‘hard’ defence

3️⃣ To fill identified gaps jointly and efficiently, coalitions of Member States will take the lead in individual capability areas and benefit from EU funding. Coalitions should be open to countries that want to join later. The EDA will facilitate the formation and operation of coalitions

2️⃣ Funding from EU instruments (SAFE, EDIP) will go towards priorities identified with this process. This should make EU defence instruments more capability driven, rather than by a logic of industrial policy

1️⃣ Everything starts from an attempt to strengthen EU’s process to identify capability priorities, with EU Military Staff mapping capability shortfalls in a granular way in a classified overview, to be updated annually and fed into EDA planning

Readiness Roadmap 2030 The Roadmap sets out clear objectives and milestones to achieve defence readiness by 2030, as outlined in the White Paper for European Defence.

A few thoughts on the EU’s Defence Readiness 2030 Roadmap

The aim of the Roadmap is essentially trying to inject more resources and coherence into Europe’s defence ramp up

defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-defence-i...

This whole thread by @lscazzieri.bsky.social, and the paper it’s based on, are smart.

Low trust: navigating transatlantic relations under Trump 2.0 The transatlantic relationship has changed profoundly. Europe must recognise it and act accordingly. We explore how the EU can move transatlantic relations forward in an age of low trust, and how othe...

Full paper here: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

5) My main recommendation is that Europeans should lean into and take ownership of the transition, and shift from a mindset of tactical adjustments to one of genuine strategic adaptation.

4) There is scope for a new transatlantic defence bargain, with the US reducing its involvement as Europeans assume primary responsibility for their security. The transition will require extensive coordination, but a disorderly process would only benefit our adversaries.

3) Aside from greater funding, Europeans are intensifying bilateral and small group cooperation, and there is a growing debate on nuclear deterrence. The EU is deepening defence relations with European partners, especially Ukraine and the UK.

2) In response to uncertainty, Europeans have embraced on a hedging strategy: striving to strengthen their own defences, and trying to address long-standing American grievances about unequal defence burden-sharing to keep Washington engaged.

1) Europeans fear that America will reduce its presence in Europe, leaving big gaps in their defences, and that Trump’s rhetorical ambiguity on NATO and confrontational policies towards allies are undermining deterrence.

Pleased to have contributed my thoughts on defence to this new EUISS Chaillot Paper out today, on navigating transatlantic relations in an era of low trust.

European Medical Provision in Times of War As European militaries ready themselves for war, creating resilient medical systems remains an afterthought for the UK.

Latest for @rusi.bsky.sociwwwon how medical provision would be impacted by war in Europe. Spoiler alert - not good, despite understanding by Med professionals on the challenge. Better sorting these out before war starts and thats on politicians...

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Europe Express: Warning shots over the drone wall European leaders question the viability of Ursula von der Leyen’s initiative

Pleased to see my analysis on Europe’s emerging “capability coalitions” — small groups of countries cooperating more closely on defence — quoted in this weekend's FT Europe Express.

These coalitions can accelerate progress where national needs align.

www.ft.com/content/ed59...

Rebuilding Europe's defences: How to unlock a coordinated defence surge The EU can help drive a European defence surge, both by unlocking additional funding and fostering deeper cooperation.

New piece for @euiss.bsky.social

Europe’s effort to rebuild its defences hinges on whether Europeans can cooperate more effectively with each other and with Ukraine. EU instruments can play a key role in driving this effort forward.

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Our next discussion is on defence and security, a central area of cooperation between the UK and the EU

Over to @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social, Sir Julian King, @lscazzieri.bsky.social, Maike Tribbels and Jean-Baptiste Valmary 🧵

US offers air and intelligence support to postwar force in Ukraine Washington prepared to contribute surveillance, command and control and air defence assets, say European officials

Interesting progress on the question of how US support for a post-war reassurance force in Ukraine.

However, US involvement is conditional on Europeans deploying 'tens of thousands' in Ukr. A tall order: recent planning has focused on air and naval support + training.

www.ft.com/content/66ec...

🇺🇦 @lscazzieri.bsky.social's brief on how Europe can keep Ukraine supplied with the means to defend itself was cited by @euronews.com, highlighting his point that air defence systems & intelligence are especially hard for Europe to replace at US scale. Full analysis: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Where do we stand after the Alaska and Washington Summits? After the high-stakes Alaska and Washington summits, Europe has managed to hold the line, buying time and keeping Ukraine at the centre of transatlantic diplomacy. Yet, Trump’s commitment remains a do...

This week has seen a whirlwind of diplomatic summits, full of drama and controversy but not much clarity.

If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts:

#EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump

New piece with @sbeverts.bsky.social @gspataf95.bsky.social, Ondrej Ditrych
on where Europe stands after the Alaska and Washington summits.

Europe has managed to hold the line, buying time and keeping Ukraine at the centre of transatlantic diplomacy.

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Thank you to @ameliahadfield1.bsky.social and @lscazzieri.bsky.social for speaking at our @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung hybrid discussion on 'How will EU enlargement shape the EU-UK relationship?' in London yesterday.

NATO, Trump and 'Article 5%': What are the implications for European security? - UK in a changing Europe Since Donald Trump entered office six months ago, he has cast doubt on the US commitment to the NATO alliance and applied...

🎧 Looking for some weekend listening? 🎧

Tune into the latest episode of The UK in a Changing Europe Podcast with @constelz.bsky.social and @anandmenon.bsky.social on European security policy and spending, trans-Atlantic relations and Trump's foreign policy agenda👇

I really enjoyed being back on the CER podcast for this discussion with Charles on what the NATO summit means for European security: