Luigi Scazzieri

The EU’s role in defence hinges largely on the level of defence funding in the next EU budget.

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4

The EU is embracing a more flexible approach to #defence co-operation by harnessing the dynamism of small groups.

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4

🎥 When it comes to reduced US engagement, @lscazzieri.bsky.social warns that Europe seems to be preparing only for benign scenarios. That is a strategy that comes with risks.

🔗 More on how the EU can protect its interests in this new era of low transatlantic trust. www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNUD...

The effort to strengthen Europe’s defences hinges on whether Europeans can avoid duplication and weave their efforts into a more coherent whole.

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4

The EU's efforts to accelerate and inject coherence into Europe's defence build-up depend on sustained funding and political will.

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4

New piece for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social on the EU’s Defence Readiness 2030 Roadmap:

It's a much needed attempt to accelerate and bring coherence to Europe’s defence ramp-up, but its success hinges on both political will and sustained investment

www.cer.eu/insights/eu-...

Navigating the grey zone: Readiness, solidarity and resolve Russia's hybrid warfare against the EU has escalated in recent weeks, revealing a pattern of coercive probing designed to test Europe's defences and unity. The challenge for Europeans is to demonstrat...

Pleased to share my new piece on how Europe can navigate the 'grey zone'

Russia's hybrid warfare is meant to test Europe’s defences and unity. Europeans should be more assertive.

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Ukraine gets in line for Swedish Gripen-E fighter jets Deliveries of the newest E variant of the aircraft could begin in three years, officials said.

According to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson deliveries of the Gripen to Ukraine will start in 3 years

With that timeframe, the Gripens will contribute to deterrence in a hypothetical ceasefire scenario, rather than contributing to Ukraine's defence now.

www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

The road to readiness: How the EU can strengthen military mobility Rapid and efficient movement of troops and supplies is vital for Europe’s defence, but this is impeded by infrastructure gaps, limited transport assets and administrative barriers. The EU can drive a ...

New piece for @euiss.bsky.social:

The ability to rapidly move forces and supplies around Europe is a crucial component of European deterrence.
But infrastructure gaps, shortages in transport assets, and administrative hurdles continue to impede military mobility.

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

The road to readiness: How the EU can strengthen military mobility Rapid and efficient movement of troops and supplies is vital for Europe’s defence, but this is impeded by infrastructure gaps, limited transport assets and administrative barriers. The EU can drive a ...

Moving troops from West to East Europe could take weeks or months.

The EU can help improve military mobility with more funding for infrastructure, harmonised & digitised border rules & a crisis state framework, writes @lscazzieri.bsky.social.

🔗 ow.ly/F6IX50XgN4W

But the EU can do more. By mobilising more funding from across its budget and from the EIB; by leading a a concerted effort to tackle administrative barriers; and by embedding mobility considerations across different policy areas to help secure buy-in from private sector stakeholders

The EU has also become increasingly involved in military mobility, by mapping gaps and providing funding. The EU has also sought to harmonise procedures and ease regulatory obstacles to moving troops and equipment across Europe.

NATO is a key actor in ensure the swift and secure movement of troops and equipment across Europe. And bilateral and small-group cooperation - for example the DE-DL-PL ‘Enablement and Sustainment Corridor’ play a crucial role in strengthening infrastructure and cutting administrative barriers.

To do all this, Europeans will need to work through a range of frameworks. Efforts to improve military mobility are primarily national. But military mobility also requires extensive international coordination: on cross-border infrastructure, border crossings and transport capabilities.

European efforts to tackle military mobility have lacked urgency and a step change is now needed. The immediate priority should be tackling bureaucratic hurdles
so that transit procedures are as seamless as possible, and filling the most urgent capability and infrastructure gaps.

The road to readiness: How the EU can strengthen military mobility Rapid and efficient movement of troops and supplies is vital for Europe’s defence, but this is impeded by infrastructure gaps, limited transport assets and administrative barriers. The EU can drive a ...

New piece for @euiss.bsky.social:

The ability to rapidly move forces and supplies around Europe is a crucial component of European deterrence.
But infrastructure gaps, shortages in transport assets, and administrative hurdles continue to impede military mobility.

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

In these years of maximum danger, ramping up European defence is the only way to go. Lots of EU initiatives but we need results at speed and scale. Only if we are strong can we remain free.

Good to discuss all this with @thinktankeuropa.bsky.social with @eu2025dk.bsky.social

🔟 Finally there is a question of attention. The Roadmap is the latest of a long series of EU defence documents, which are quickly forgotten. The priority should be tangible progress on readiness

9️⃣ Then there is a question on funding. The provisional agreement on EDIP is good news but this is only about €1.5 billion until the next MFF. The Roadmap refers to plans for more defence spending in the next MFF, but does not in itself announce new funding sources

8️⃣ A third question is about non-EU allies. The proposed process does not account for the contribution of non-EU allies, especially Norway and the UK. Capability gaps will look bigger without their contribution. I doubt an EU process can work well without a mechanism to involve them somehow

7️⃣ A second question is whether the governance of EU projects is appealing to Member States. The decision over whether to place an existing capability coalition under an EU framework will be driven by the balance between the funding on offer by the EU and the level of added administrative complexity

6️⃣ One question is the degree to which MS will take the new planning process seriously and provide the necessary data. Strengthening EU planning would also mean allocating more human resources at the national level, as well as strengthening EUMS and EDA

5️⃣ Finally, the Roadmap tries to track progress. There are milestones to assess progress in all these efforts, with many targets in 2026. There will also be an annual stocktaking process feeding directly into the October European Council with a Defence Readiness Report

4️⃣ In parallel to coalitions filling gaps, EU funding will also focus on 4+ broader Flagships (Drone Defence Initiative etc). The key difference with the capability coalitions is that these are more diffuse projects, not purely about ‘hard’ defence

3️⃣ To fill identified gaps jointly and efficiently, coalitions of Member States will take the lead in individual capability areas and benefit from EU funding. Coalitions should be open to countries that want to join later. The EDA will facilitate the formation and operation of coalitions

2️⃣ Funding from EU instruments (SAFE, EDIP) will go towards priorities identified with this process. This should make EU defence instruments more capability driven, rather than by a logic of industrial policy

1️⃣ Everything starts from an attempt to strengthen EU’s process to identify capability priorities, with EU Military Staff mapping capability shortfalls in a granular way in a classified overview, to be updated annually and fed into EDA planning

Readiness Roadmap 2030 The Roadmap sets out clear objectives and milestones to achieve defence readiness by 2030, as outlined in the White Paper for European Defence.

A few thoughts on the EU’s Defence Readiness 2030 Roadmap

The aim of the Roadmap is essentially trying to inject more resources and coherence into Europe’s defence ramp up

defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-defence-i...

This whole thread by @lscazzieri.bsky.social, and the paper it’s based on, are smart.

Low trust: navigating transatlantic relations under Trump 2.0 The transatlantic relationship has changed profoundly. Europe must recognise it and act accordingly. We explore how the EU can move transatlantic relations forward in an age of low trust, and how othe...

Full paper here: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...