Peter Hannam

Upturn or uncertainty: decoding Australia’s 2024 economy and what it means for you next year Despite jobs growing and interest rates tipped to drop, a variety of factors mean the economy could be tested soon

(Last from me): www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Stay tuned…

(Photo credit: Peter Cant)

Some news from me: I’ll be leaving my wonderful colleagues at Guardian Australia to take up a role at the Climate Change Authority in the new year.

Looks like Christmas will be hot in Melbourne...and the Boxing Day Test Match will get off to a scorcher: (Via BoM)

Mostly dry in southern Australia from now until Boxing Day...

(Via BoM)

Fresh dawn…

Five things Myefo tells us about the state of the Australian economy The economy’s rebound won’t be as strong as anticipated and more government rebates seem to be pencilled for the coming year

ANALYSIS: Five things #Myefo tells us about the state of the Australian economy

from @phannam.bsky.social

Five things Myefo tells us about the state of the Australian economy The economy’s rebound won’t be as strong as anticipated and more government rebates seem to be pencilled for the coming year

(New from me):

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Westpac/Melbourne Institute, though, finds some pullback in consumer sentiment to end 2024. Still, the rebound of late has been clear, with "current conditions" well up on last year, as is "time to buy" and expectations for family finances in a year's time.

Manufacturers' expectations for profits, too, are bouncing back, with a net 19% of firms anticipating an increase
over the coming year. That's back in line with the long-run average in a data set going back 36 years.

The general business outlook for six months' time continues to rise too, with the first net-positive reading since the September quarter of 2022.

Year-end Westpac-ACCI's industry survey finds sentiment finely balanced among manufacturers who were optimistic or pessimistic to round out 2024. The 'Expected' outlook, though, picked up further and is now at its highest since September 2022.

These surveys are amazing - as I found out three years ago:

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

‘Increasingly worried’: more than a quarter of a million waterbirds disappear from eastern Australia One of the world’s longest continuous bird counts has dashed the ‘wistful optimism’ of scientists hoping for a La Niña-driven recovery

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Unfortunately, federalism works both ways. Cities and states can do a lot to rectify and fill in for federal government missteps and neglect of vulnerable populations. However, the opposite is also true. Cities can be preempted by their states (and states by federal government), tho not always.

Before the heat…

Coalition’s nuclear plan will hit Earth with 1.7bn extra tonnes of CO2 before 2050, experts warn Peter Dutton’s path ‘would be an absolute failure’ in decarbonising the electricity sector and meeting Australia’s emission targets, analyst says

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

a chart showing cumulative emissions

The Coalition's climate policy plan would result in a cool extra gigatonne of GHGs out to 2050, from Australia's power sector alone.

Great analysis by @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Parts of western Melbourne topping 43.3C today, and tomorrow it'll be Sydney's turn to bake. Parts of western Sydney may reach 42C. (Via BoM)

A host of inland regions are competing to be the hottest place in Australia - and probably the planet - today. Presently, this is the hottest station (according to BoM):

Jim Chalmers reveals two appointments to Reserve Bank’s new monetary policy board Renée Fry-McKibbin and Marnie Baker will sit on the RBA’s new board, which follows the government’s reform of the central bank

(New from me): Jim Chalmers reveals two appointments to Reserve Bank’s new monetary policy board

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Figure showing projected electricity consumption for large industrial loads under two different scenarios (from the ISP). The "Progressive Change" scenario (preferred by Coalition) has industrial demand significantly falling (basically halving) by 2030.

Choosing the "progressive change" scenario - with lower economic growth, and significant decline in large industrial loads - as your preferred version of the future is really quite a choice from the coalition...

Energy generators poke holes in Dutton’s nuclear plan as questions over costings pile up ‘No one really has the foggiest idea of what it will cost to develop nuclear in Australia,’ one expert says

(New from me):
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Meanwhile, Melbourne's forecast heat for early next week has eased back slightly, but 39C-41C expected across parts of the Victorian capital next Monday. (Via BoM)

Forecast heat in Sydney's west is one of the reasons for the expected tight power conditions early next week in NSW. (Via BoM.)

Fall in Australia’s unemployment rate sends dollar higher and stocks down, dimming hopes of interest rate cut ABS reveals robust market as unemployment rate drops from 4.1% to 3.9%, its lowest since March

(New from me:) Yet more signs of a surprisingly strong labour market:
www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Victoria, too, has a lack of reserve (level 2) forecast issued for Monday, which means that state probably won't have much spare power to export to NSW or elsewhere. Parts of Melbourne are predicted to hit 42C on that day, which explains why power supplies might be tight. (Via AEMO.)

And with the prolonged heat will come some strains on the power grid. AEMO has a 'lack of reserve' level 3 alert for possible interrupted supply in NSW (unless the market responds, which it likely will) for periods on Monday afternoon and evening. (And LOR2s forecast for other periods.)

The heatwave shift slightly to the north for Sunday-Tuesday, taking in Sydney and Brisbane. (Via BoM)