Sean Christian

The constant calling of the Chiffchaff is always a comforting sign that Spring is springing! @sussexwildlife.bsky.social #RSPRPulborough #birds

Église Saint-Martin de Tollevast, Manche 50 (Normandie) 🇫🇷

emiliaromanica.com/2026/03/09/

📷 @emilia_romanica　
2 mai 2025

So much winning

"We've imported a whole bunch of people we said we were going to keep out by mistake"

Since the UK immigration has been similar to other receiving countries in Europe, control has so far made little difference to overall numbers. Ceding control would bring large economic benefits. The trade-off is the same as it always was.

EU free movement also opens up a trade policy that is less damaging to the economy. It will be one of the demands the EU will make for any significant participation in the single market.

EU free movement offers a system in which more individuals make decisions, rather than bureaucrats. Officials have to use the blunt instrument of visa eligibility to control flows.

Leaving the EU has not resolved the dilemma facing all European governments – between maintaining employment as societies age and political pressure to reduce immigration.

We appear to be entering a bust, partly because the UK labour market is cooling, and partly because successive governments have significantly tightened the system. That will curb GDP growth and tax revenues. Labour market problems might lead governments to liberalise the regime again.

My thoughts on the implications (not necessarily Jonathan’s). Taking back control of migration hasn’t made much difference to the numbers, so far. But it does seem to make immigration more volatile, as politicians adjust visa eligibility under political pressure.

Because many other Western European countries also had a big rise in labour demand after the pandemic, the countries whose trends most matched the UK’s in the 2010s also had big rises in foreign-born workers. But more came from the EU, and fewer from the rest of the world.

We used a similar method to the ‘doppelgänger’ studies estimating the impact of Brexit on GDP. We compared HMRC data on foreign-born employees to EU-15 and EEA countries whose trends in foreign-born employment most closely matched the UK’s in the 2010s.

The net effect was small – 207,000 more foreign-born workers, or 0.6 per cent of the labour force.

The new migration regime raised non-EU born workers by about 992,000, or 2.95 per cent of the labour force.

There was a large change in the origin of new foreign-born workers. By 2024, Brexit had reduced EU-born workers by about 785,000, or 2.3 per cent of the labour force.

We estimated the impact of the end of free movement on the number of EU-born workers in Britain, and the new immigration system on workers born in the rest of the world.

After the Johnson government implemented the new regime, which made it easier for non-EU workers to get visas, net migration rose to a peak of over 900,000 in 2023, and Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of running an “open borders experiment”.

The impact of Brexit on immigration to the UK A new analysis finds that Brexit raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by about 200,000, but resulted in a more dramatic shift in the countries of origin.

New research by me @jdportes.bsky.social: we find that the end of free movement and the new immigration regime rather modestly raised the number of foreign-born workers in Britain – by about 200,000 in 2024. Thread. www.cer.eu/insights/imp...

As visa issuance has been dropping rapidly, net migration to the UK is likely to fall further over 2026, with one forecast suggesting it might be less than 100,000 in 2026. The dilemma facing all European governments - between maintaining employment as societies age and accommodating political pressure to reduce immigration - has not been resolved by Brexit, and our estimates show that the decision to leave the EU made only a modest difference to the number of foreign-born workers in Britain.

Brexit and the ugly immigration policy it gave birth to…haven’t solved the dilemma of immigration vs prosperity. And how can they? Based, as they both are, on politicians and media refusing to have honest conversations with the public about the inevitable trade offs of turning prejudice into policy.

Separately, my longer research article on the political economy of the post-Brexit immigration regime is here:

www.iza.org/publications...

The impact of Brexit on immigration to the UK A new analysis finds that Brexit raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by about 200,000, but resulted in a more dramatic shift in the countries of origin.

The impact of Brexit on UK immigration - new research by @johnspringford.bsky.social & me for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social & @ukandeu.bsky.social

Brexit

a) reduced EU-origin employees by 785K (2.3% of workforce)
b) increased non-EU origin employees by 992K (2.95%)

www.cer.eu/insights/imp...

Oh.

Église Saint-Martin de Tollevast, Manche 50 (Normandie) 🇫🇷

emiliaromanica.com/2026/03/09/

📷 @emilia_romanica　
2 mai 2025

🏛🏇 Gilt-bronze equestrian statue of the Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, likely cast in either c. AD 176, to celebrate a victory over Germanic tribes during the Marcomannic Wars, or in AD 180, to mark his death.

My 📷 Musei Capitolini

Yes, absolutely. The point is being open and honest and acting correctly on Europe. Dealing with queries and criticism with information. Building backing.

And yes, this does provide a model for how the UK could and should do things

Ends

@profjacob.bsky.social

Iceland locks in on date for EU referendum | Euractiv As a member of the European Economic Area, Iceland is already aligned with much of the bloc's legislation

Note this is a referendum on completing negotiations, not joining.

Iceland has gone about this in exactly the right way, including a proper parliamentary and public discussion on whether the euro is a good fit.

A vote of confidence in the Union a rich country

1

www.euractiv.com/news/iceland...

A quartz crystal side scraper 20x17mm dating to the Late Mesolithic-Early Neolithic C.6,000-4,000 BC. The nearest source of the mineral to Wirral is Snowdonia. Acquired through either trade or travel. A difficult material to knap requiring some skill #MineralMonday #Archaeology #Prehistory #crystals