Mike Madowitz

Yeah, people will def be big mad if gas prices go up $.25-$.50 over a week or 2.

$4 diesel is a different story—actual supply chain inflation pressure there

Energy policy is a smoosh of interests, so it’s good to say what the effect on US prices are when championing a policy

If you think we should raise prices to make AK and TX better off, or export more to EU, I am interested!

But don’t pretend it’s 2005, there are domestic price trade offs now

6/6

Energy policy is a smoosh of interests, so it’s good to say what the effect on US prices are when championing a policy

If you think we should raise prices to make AK and TX better off, or export more to EU, I am interested!

But don’t pretend it’s 2005, there are domestic price trade offs now

6/6

Eventually we can move on to finer concepts like how comparing US energy production to countries with a large state ownership stake is dumb, or how production capacity, not production, gives energy producers leverage, but for now

5/

The implicit assumption that deregulation lowers the domestic marginal cost of energy is DEEPLY embedded in policy thinking and it’s wrong.

I don’t see much for the US to gain from this war, so we should aim to at least salvage that understanding from this price shock

4/

We’re seeing it this week—the US has liberalized oil exports, but permitting means nat gas export capacity lags.

US oil prices are moving almost as 1:1 with world prices—drilling more here doesn’t change marginal costs at the pump

Nat gas prices are less volatile, not set on the global margin

3/

Opinion | Obama Supported It. The Left in Canada and Norway Does. Why Don’t Democrats?

There is a lot of muddled US energy policy thinking, eg this @mattyglesias.bsky.social piece, that goes something like ‘the US has lots of fossil energy reserves, there’s a win-win in giving industry a free hand here’

This is outdated thinking about marginal price effects

2/

War, Oil and the World Economy Are we less vulnerable to an oil price shock than we were in 1979?

Agree with basically everything in this @pkrugman.bsky.social analysis, but there’s one point I’d like to lift from subtext here.

Supply and demand interventions are not the same

1/

This website is so cool it may induce another wave of data ferret nostalgia, but good

Just how high could oil go? [FREE TO READ] And a few other questions we don’t really answer

Oil

as.ft.com/r/880152d8-f...

Right on schedule

Good Life Resident Program The Good Life Residents Program is a six-month initiative focused on developing new leaders and elevating bold ideas centered around six economic policy priorities for the Roosevelt Institute, as part...

#FundSocSci
@rooseveltinstitute.org
rooseveltinstitute.org/careers/good...

Killing Khamenei: Regime-Change Roulette in a Powder-Keg World But Trump insisted he already destroyed the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear-weapons program! A sudden U.S.–Israeli decapitation campaign against Iran and the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei...

..Roulette in a Powder-Keg World**
< braddelong.substack.com/p/killing-kh... >
2026-03-01 3/END

Lots of money for the Texas oil boys!

TFW all your affordability is courtesy of OPEC, but yolo

🤔

You could fix it with taxes is definitely the IN MICE of US economic policy

As a data person, the top 3 & gas all make sense to me.

Curious how many of these cost debates are gonna be fighting the last war by this summer

He’s just mad OPEC’s doing more for affordability than he is

From the Chicago Fed description of the figure: "The figure below shows the model-implied probabilities for various possible values for the February 2026 (rounded) unemployment rate. A model-implied probability that exceeds its historical benchmark (black dashed line) reflects an above-average likelihood for that particular range of unemployment changes and values."

Latest Chicago Fed predictions show the February unemployment rate likely unchanged at 4.3%, with about a 70% probability of holding steady or declining

www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...

New work co-authored by our own @aaronsojourner.org on the economic impact of operation Metro Surge.

Social Security Lifts More People Above the Poverty Line Than Any Other Program Social Security benefits play a vital role in reducing poverty in every state, and they lift more people above the poverty line than any other program in the United States. Without Social Security, 23...

Social Security benefits play a vital role in reducing poverty in every state & lift more people above the poverty line than any other program.

Without Social Security, 23.5 million more adults and children would live in poverty, according to our updated analysis.

www.cbpp.org/research/soc...

talking about the "big beautiful bill" in my dune hoodie

Previous job, he was other party staff on the committee I worked on. Beautiful desk in a Capitol office building—in a windowless basement office

lol this is too perfect

I once inherited Alan’s desk, don’t think I’m following this one tho

Again, people should be less worried about "people getting priveleged access to unpublicized economic numbers" and more worried about "people are not using their unprivileged access to publicized economic numbers.".

This is the kind of debate around Fed policy that is normal and healthy.

Agree that’s part of it, but my model solves that w/ fixed effects & there’s nothing that can go wrong w/ that approach

More seriously, I think job loss anxiety is being higher when seps & hires go down. Anxiety is kinda conditional on losing a job so low hire is scary! (analog to money illusion?)

Vibes*

* as measured by Michigan survey (table 17–annoying they don’t let you link to specific tables) and conference board. TLDR, a lot of the decline in consumer sentiment last year appears job anxiety related

data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive...