Umit Akcay

Political Economy of Turkey’s Monetary Policy Experiment (2018–2023): Policy Coalitions, Monetary Unorthodoxy and External Constraints This article analyses Turkey’s monetary policy experiment between 2018 and 2023. While central banks globally tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation, Turkey pursued sustained int...

By examining the underlying policy coalition and its internal tensions, the piece offers a broader analytical lens for those interested both in the political economy of monetary policy and in the trajectory of the Turkish economy.
doi.org/10.1080/1944...

This article argues that such interpretations are incomplete. It proposes a critical political economy framework to understand monetary policy by focusing on the social forces and class dynamics that shape it.

Political Economy of Turkey’s Monetary Policy Experiment (2018–2023): Policy Coalitions, Monetary Unorthodoxy and External Constraints This article analyses Turkey’s monetary policy experiment between 2018 and 2023. While central banks globally tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation, Turkey pursued sustained int...

Most commentary on Turkey’s monetary policy rarely ventures into political economy analysis. Instead, the zigzags and shifts in policy are typically explained through President Erdoğan’s personal preferences, institutional erosion, or populist monetary experiments.
doi.org/10.1080/1944...

Political Economy of Turkey’s Monetary Policy Experiment (2018–2023): Policy Coalitions, Monetary Unorthodoxy and External Constraints This article analyses Turkey’s monetary policy experiment between 2018 and 2023. While central banks globally tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation, Turkey pursued sustained int...

📢My article on Turkey’s recent monetary policy trajectory has just been published.

It argues that monetary policy is never merely technical. It is deeply political. In moments of crisis, it becomes a central instrument for sustaining growth coalitions.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Political Economy of Turkey’s Monetary Policy Experiment (2018–2023): Policy Coalitions, Monetary Unorthodoxy and External Constraints This article analyses Turkey’s monetary policy experiment between 2018 and 2023. While central banks globally tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation, Turkey pursued sustained int...

The first 50 free copies are available here:
tandfonline.com/eprint/PZSKZ...

If you cannot access the article, please feel free to DM me.

It also examines how this monetary experiment influenced the run-up to the 2023 elections and contributed to the AKP’s electoral success despite growing economic tensions.

Focusing on the period between 2018 and 2023, the article explores how changes in interest rates, credit policy, and exchange rate management reshaped the economy.

Political Economy of Turkey’s Monetary Policy Experiment (2018–2023): Policy Coalitions, Monetary Unorthodoxy and External Constraints This article analyses Turkey’s monetary policy experiment between 2018 and 2023. While central banks globally tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation, Turkey pursued sustained int...

📢My article on Turkey’s recent monetary policy trajectory has just been published.

It argues that monetary policy is never merely technical. It is deeply political. In moments of crisis, it becomes a central instrument for sustaining growth coalitions.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Safe‑asset demand seems increasingly sensitive to political risk, and investors are becoming slightly more cautious about politically exposed assets, shifting small but noticeable amounts toward safer and more neutral stores of value.

It seems that today’s “Sell America” episode, with a weaker dollar, lower Treasury prices and higher gold, aligns with themes in Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III framework: a geopolitical dispute produced a shift from inside money (US T-bonds) toward outside money (gold and others).

Is it a good time for revisiting Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods‑III after the “Sell America” episode?

0.2% is Not a Recovery: Managing the Decline of the German Model The new GDP growth data from Destatis is out. Here is my short take on Germany's economy.

The new geoeconomic reality has undermined the external anchors that supported the German model for decades. The era of cheap energy, the US security umbrella, and unlimited access to Chinese markets is over.

open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...

0.2% is Not a Recovery: Managing the Decline of the German Model The new GDP growth data from Destatis is out. Here is my short take on Germany's economy.

The new GDP growth data from Destatis is out. Here is my short take on Germany's economy.
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...

By pursuing criminal charges against Fed Chair Powell, Trump has fueled a fresh debate on central bank independence. Here is my brief note on this:

Germany After "Pax Americana": From Green Transition to Military Keynesianism The collapse of Germany’s export driven growth model is forcing a strategic repositioning in which green industrial ambitions are being replaced by military Keynesianism.

My new blog post:
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...

In my latest blog, I unpack the new Trump Doctrine:
By placing economic security at its core, advancing transactional relationships, and openly embracing strategic competition, this doctrine stands as one of the clearest political expressions of the ongoing transformation of global capitalism.

The Trump Doctrine: A National Security Strategy for the Post-Globalization Order The Trump Doctrine represents the foreign policy manifestation of a new historical bloc, as the US National Security Strategy redefines globalization itself as a national security risk.

open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...

if you came of age in the 20th century then this really sits you down about how much the Worlds changed in 21st century. no going back…. @katemac.bsky.social

Germany was 4 times China's GDP in 1990
China is now 4 times Germany's GDP in 2025
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/bri...

The Trump Administration in its First Year: New Class Alliances and the Alternatives Behind the noisy politics, Trumpism is not madness but a class strategy born from the crisis of American capitalism.

My brief take on Trump’s first year and the power bloc shaping Trumpism:
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...

If this moment opens new policy space for progressive politics and strengthens the labor movement, the victory could mark a hopeful beginning.

On the New York elections and Mamdani’s win: Both left and right can use the cycle of marketization and counter-movements (Polanyi). What matters is turning this energy into a lasting political strategy.

Between Wall Street and Trump: The Left’s Central Bank Dilemma Between the technocrats of Wall Street and the populists like Trump, the left must reclaim central banking as a site of democratic struggle.

Between Wall Street and Trump: The Left’s Central Bank Dilemma

Between the technocrats of Wall Street and the populists like Trump, the left must reclaim central banking as a site of democratic struggle.

By
@umitak.bsky.social

substack.com/app-link/pos...

"..independence entrenches capitalist power, while authoritarian control concentrates it. Both depoliticization and personalism depoliticize society itself, denying collective decision-making about the economy. The challenge is to chart a third path: democratic control without executive domination."

Between Wall Street and Trump: The Left’s Central Bank Dilemma Between the technocrats of Wall Street and the populists like Trump, the left must reclaim central banking as a site of democratic struggle.

Between Wall Street and Trump: The Left’s Central Bank Dilemma
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...

For a concise summary of policy shifts and their broader implications in Turkey and Argentina, see the blog post below 👇 "Looking into Argentina’s mirror, Turkey and the wider Global South can see their own reflection."

Thanks for sharing.

"Both Argentina and Turkey show how class coalitions can briefly expand policy space, but without structural transformation these tactical gains evaporate. In both cases, dependency on volatile capital flows... has forced governments back into orthodoxy and deeper external subordination."

Argentina in Crisis Mode Again U.S. bailout buys Milei time, but shock therapy deepens poverty. Like Turkey, dependent financialization offers no exit, only a pause before the next crash.

Last week at the EAEPE conference, I presented a co-authored paper on Argentina’s and Turkey’s responses to the 2018 currency crises and their class dynamics. The timing coincided with Milei’s U.S. visit and new support package. Here’s a short blogpost on this:
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...

My brief notes on the Turkey’s peace process with Kurds:

Turkey's Peace Process with Kurds: Are We at a Turning Point? The "peace process" is a top-down power play, but its outcome is far from decided, as it is no one-sided game; the Kurdish movement and the broader opposition hold significant power to shape the peace

Turkey's Peace Process with Kurds: Are We at a Turning Point?
open.substack.com/pub/umitak/p...