Ayushi Gupta

We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.

We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.

It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.

We'll update it regularly to show changes.

👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!

It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.

Just click it again for a different scenario.

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales.

2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...

Irish Election Projections Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1

irishelections.ie/general/

Irish Election Projections Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.

We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers

👉 irishelections.ie

Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.

Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.

We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.

It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.

Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

🚨 We've introduced a new tool which shows you how the Northern Ireland Executive is formed.

Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!

👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈

🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️

Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨

We crunched the numbers so you don’t have to 😎
Our Stormont Election Projection Tool just got a nod from @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social 👀
Curious who's up, down, or hanging by a transfer? 📈 Dive in:

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

My husband knows the politics 🗳️
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡

#elections #devolution #politics #uk

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Our new London Assembly projection tool is live!
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).

Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

New visual for Scotland! 📊 — you can now see the order of Regional seats in our Scottish projections. Our latest Nowcast has the Tories down to just 1 seat in Glasgow.

www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

You can now see D'Hondt seat allocation for every Senedd constituency!

The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast.

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Good doggie

Sick of pretending you understand STV counts in Northern Ireland? Same.

We’ve added a vote transfer graphic that spells it out count by count - because watching your fave get eliminated shouldn’t require a maths degree 🗳️💅

Come for the democracy, stay for the drama!
#STV #NorthernIreland #Elections

Apply tactical voting button

We've added a new Tactical Voting button - this adjusts up the vote shares of previously large parties in Scottish constituencies in line with historic trends.

It shifts the SNP down 2 seats in our Nowcast to 59.

Lab — 19
Ref — 17
Con — 16
GP — 10
LD — 8

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Play around with the only projection site which includes Scotland, Wales & even Northern Ireland!

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, visual, and up-to-date!

Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27:
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats

From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/