Nathan Attrill

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Failed recalls deepen Taiwan’s political gridlock. Plus: German mayor apologises after city suggests Taiwan's flag be removed. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/failed-rec...

The Taiwan scenarios 4: The catastrophe. The world must convince China that the road to Taipei is lined with peril, not prizes. If Beijing acts, it faces the wrecking of its global standing. Preventing conflict is not Taiwan’s burden alone. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

The Taiwan scenarios 3: Day zero. Taiwan would not just collapse, capitulate or hand itself over. While it has been outpaced by the scale of China’s military developments, it is more capable than many assume. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

The Taiwan scenarios 2: Warning signs. At first, it may not be easy to see what’s afoot. The difference between China’s routine coercion of Taiwan and early signs of serious escalation to take control of the island may not be clear. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

Greg is missing out the sentence Allan Behm, seasoned analyst, said before that:

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai to visit Paraguay via U.S. next month. Plus: Beijing vows punishment over Taiwan’s tightened residency rules for mainland spouses. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-to-vis...

The Taiwan Scenarios 1: Subversion, Quarantine, Blockade, Invasion. ASPI has wargamed President Xi Jinping’s options for subjugating Taiwan. We tried four scenarios, the details of which will be presented in this and three more daily articles this week. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

How Taipei is fighting back against Beijing’s spies | The Strategist Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—m...

'International partners have begun to pay closer attention to Taiwan’s experience. Officials in Taipei have shared intelligence with counterparts abroad and positioned their counter-espionage campaign as part of a broader effort to resist authoritarian influence,' writes Nathan Attrill.

How Taipei is fighting back against Beijing’s spies | The Strategist Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—m...

Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—more than in the previous two years combined. www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-taipei-i...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Allies resist US push for Taiwan war commitments. Plus: China bans dual-use exports to eight Taiwan defense entities. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/allies-res...

Imagine the stuff that goes on in that Weixin group chat from hell.

China’s ‘Taiwanese separatist’ hotline shows expanding lawfare strategy | The Strategist Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan is entering a more litigious phase. While military drills and cognitive warfare remain staples of its coercive playbook, China is now intensifying the system...

Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan is entering a more litigious phase. While military drills and cognitive warfare remain staples of its coercive playbook, China is now intensifying the systematic use of law to target Taiwan’s democracy. www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-taiwa...

Opening systems to Chinese AI is a risk we can’t ignore There’s one thing China’s ambassador to Australia got right in a call to add artificial intelligence to the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: “China has always viewed Australia and China-Australia relations from a strategic and long-term perspective.”

China wants to add AI to the FTA with Australia.

Here’s why that’s a dangerous idea, & what’s really at stake if we say yes.

AI isn’t just another export sector. It’s infrastructure, ideology, & surveillance all rolled into one.

My take (gift link): www.theaustralian.co...

'Han Kuang 41' exercises to simulate PLA invasion Plus: Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan, UK ex-defense chief says

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: 'Han Kuang 41' exercises to simulate PLA invasion. Plus: Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan, UK ex-defense chief says. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/han-kuang-...

Isn't he head of publishing at MOFA now?

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Every day is Independence Day in Taiwan | The Strategist In a speech kicking off his ‘10 Talks on the Country’ series on 22 June, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te declared that Taiwan ‘is of course a country’, citing its democratic system and separate histo...

The idea that Taiwan might one day declare independence misses the core of the cross-strait issue. For many Taiwanese, especially those born after martial law, independence isn’t a destination; it’s the condition they already live under. www.aspistrategist.org.au/every-day-is...

Taiwan VP defiant after foiled Chinese plot in Prague Plus: Taiwan puts anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and steel

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan VP defiant after foiled Chinese plot in Prague. Plus: Taiwan puts anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and steel. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-vp-...

Beijing’s economic playbook for Taiwan: big carrots and small sticks | The Strategist Beijing’s approach to economic coercion against Taiwan is less about brute force and more about baiting. While China has long threatened economic punishment to deter what it sees as separatist behavio...

'China’s use of trade bans and incentives has often been surgically targeted at politically sensitive constituencies, especially rural districts with high concentrations of fruit and fish farmers known to lean toward Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

While China has long threatened economic punishment to deter what it sees as separatist behaviour, the past several years have shown a clear pattern: big carrots, but small sticks. www.aspistrategist.org.au/beijings-eco...

Taiwan’s recall elections could reshape its China policy Plus: UK warship's passage through Taiwan Strait monitored by PLA

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan’s recall elections could reshape its China policy Plus: UK warship's passage through Taiwan Strait monitored by PLA. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwans-re...

Huawei and SMIC blacklisted as Taiwan seeks to guard critical tech Plus: Taiwan defense minister says 2 carriers in Pacific show China's expansionist agenda

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Huawei and SMIC blacklisted as Taiwan seeks to guard critical tech. Plus: Taiwan defense minister says 2 carriers in Pacific show China's expansionist agenda. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/huawei-and...

Taiwan has 12 diplomatic partners left. Who’ll drop it next? | The Strategist Beneath Taiwan’s high-profile fight for global recognition lies a parallel contest in capitals scattered across the Caribbean and the Pacific. This is Beijing’s relentless campaign to isolate Taiwan d...

'In the contest between Taiwan’s limited resources and China’s coercive toolkit, the ground is shifting. The next defection may not be a surprise; it may be confirmation that Beijing’s long game is working,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

Since 2016, Taiwan has lost the recognition of 10 countries to China; just 12 remain. The question is not whether that number will fall again, but which will be next. www.aspistrategist.org.au/taiwan-has-1...

Ok.

Lai bolsters internal security against Chinese influence Plus: Taiwan Communist Party leaders found not guilty in infiltration case

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai bolsters internal security against Chinese influence. Plus: Taiwan Communist Party leaders found not guilty in infiltration case. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-bolste...

Pretty embarrassing that two former NZ Prime Minister and a former ambassador to China can't even articulate New Zealand's One China policy correctly.

High-powered former political leaders write letter to Luxon on China A high-powered group of former political leaders have publicly urged Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to restate New Zealand’s commitment to China.

A so-called "high-powered" group of former political leaders have publicly urged Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to restate New Zealand’s commitment to the China relationship. www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360...

CCP mouthpiece Andy Boreham posted about the Tiananmen Square massacre, then deleted it. Again.

He pulled the same stunt last year. You’d think by now he’d know what his handlers will and won’t tolerate. But nope.