@mattcerminaro.bsky.social
Posts ≠ Financial Advice ➢ Opinions expressed are solely my own. Thoughts are things. Choose the good ones.
At what point do 7%+ mortgage rates and a lack of housing activity become a big problem for the economy?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...
The Best Books I Read in 2024
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market.
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
Can't lie we went crazy on the show tonight. Now live, let us know what you think
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️ www.tker.co/p/valuations...
15.12.2024 14:11 — 👍 29 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 5
Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and Head of the Global Allocation Team, overseeing roughly $2.4T in assets.
Just don’t call him a Bond King.
Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...
🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks.
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
It's Forecast SZN on Wall Street and every firm has their S&P 500 target for 2025. Strategists are expecting a gain of somewhere between 7% and 17%. But allow me to blow your mind: The average gain for stocks in an up year over the last hundred years is actually +21%! @bencarlson007.bsky.social
11.12.2024 14:28 — 👍 94 🔁 13 💬 11 📌 1
This one is interesting.
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
The 4 types of investment mistakes:
1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds)
2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc)
3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market)
4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
The NASDAQ is -0.50% today.
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
Thank you Josh!! 🙏 📊
09.12.2024 12:31 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Why did BlackRock spend $12 billion to acquire a private equity firm last week? I can explain it in a single chart. If you were the CEO of a large asset management firm, you would do the same thing.
via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
NEW🚨: Ben with Benefits by @bencarlson007.bsky.social
Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧
👇
youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...
Peter Boockvar on The Compound and Friends today!
Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...
Everybody tells us the "market is narrow"
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
🤯🤯 thank you for the mention!!
04.12.2024 13:30 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
The reason we are less susceptible to recession when rates rise in the modern era is because we’re a services economy. Which means inventory back-ups don’t result in mass layoffs anymore.
Manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 10% of US GDP over the last 50 years.
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social:
One of my favorite investing quotes comes form Art Cashin.
RIP 🙏
cnbc.com/2009/10/22/a...
👇
On traveling while you're young, and other musings:
www.youngmoney.co/p/advice-22y...
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
The stock market is now the driving force behind inflation. Hilarious given that the stock market has been rallying because inflation has come down.
You can’t make this up 😂
Dead 😂
27.11.2024 16:19 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Consumer confidence is surging at a peculiar time
Yes, the economy is under a lot of pressure and rates are high across the board, but some combo of Fed cuts/politics/momentum has suddenly made Americans more optimistic about the future...
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
The breakout in equities is supported by strong breadth.
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
Michael Saylor when MSTR's market cap hits $47 trillion.
26.11.2024 13:45 — 👍 194 🔁 6 💬 19 📌 1Thank you Josh!! 🙏
26.11.2024 14:12 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Q3 Earnings Season is now in the books. It was epic and justified the rally that began in September.
Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social:
Profits for S&P 500 companies grew 9% YoY (476bps above estimates), 75% of companies beat, sales up 5.7%, 8 of 11 sectors posted higher profits over 2023.
