Mark Rosenberg

Thank you

Wonderful to see, Matt and Emily are really great to work with. Did they give you a gift link? Would love to read it in full

Trump’s Tariffs and Fed Attacks Make the U.S. Look Like an Emerging Market The Fed, under pressure from Trump, should take a cue from South Africa, Mark Y. Rosenberg writes in a guest commentary.

"When the dog barks, the moon does not bark back" -- my latest in Barron's on Trump, Powell, and lessons from South Africa (!)

www.barrons.com/articles/tru...

Itamar Ben Gvir is beyond the pale — UnXeptable

Ben Gvir's vision is for an Israel that eschews pluralism, democracy, and equal rights. We cannot allow this vision to be normalized.

Join us tomorrow at 12:30pm in New York:
www.unxeptable.org/itamar-ben-g...

Where is it from?

Sure but for that 80% Biden & co were still offering (pretending?) to be the "leader of the free world", w/ all the public goods that entails

Eloquent summary of the (sad but true) US “EM-ification” story, with some quotes from me for good measure

For a political scientist it is fiscal risk defined esp in this context

I mean changing the rules to pretend our way into permanent tax cuts— and then yes the insanes

Yes derisking etc but can’t ignore the politics. Political risk has already keeping yields elevated relative to macro factors; now spreads widening and dollar down. Mother of all supply shocks” has same driver of reduced full fair and credit. And then there the fiscal side.

Yep. Spreads help tell that story too

It’s both

But the fog may lift only to roll right back in. The details of those tariffs won't be the last policy hit to the market from the new administration. Politics is creeping into the market through just about every asset class-and more than usual, some experts say. The markets for U.S. Treasuries and gold, and to some degree in stocks, are dependent on the fragile mood in the country and the fight over political institutions. The U.S. is "basically looking more and more like an emerging market," political scientist Mark Rosenberg says. "You have higher policy uncertainty, you have greater questions about rule of law, you have concerns about the ability of the state to tackle its fiscal problems, a dysfunctional political environment," Rosenberg says. "All the stuff that you would get if you were talking about South Africa or Brazil."

Reciprocal tariffs are like Lucy with the football. There will be a new policy to be uncertain about, because instability is basically built into this administration. My new column on how the U.S. is starting to trade like an emerging market. www.barrons.com/articles/tru...

Possible “Liz Truss” moment for the US?
Seems too obscure but given recent Moodys and CBO warning and actual math of tax cuts …

What’s happening here is all very sad. Very stupid, and very sad.

@gavinnewsom.bsky.social you next, please

They were mostly social democrats (and further left…), at least the OGs
That’s the “neo” in neocon

To the extent they exist, they probably will be again, per your point

Yes good point

Either way, higher political risk does seem to be getting independent traction on yields…

I think that’s right. One could argue that yields already reflect higher political risk but that is more of a tariff/labor supply/inflation story than a holy shit full faith and credit story

This summarizes most of the my conversations with asset managers and their ilk—especially about treasury risk.

Very

“Now” is doing a lot of good work there!

www.jstor.org/stable/20048...

Actually your regard notwithstanding Austria is the closest comparable

Wow etc doing a lot of work there!

Which other countries (or territories or other polities) do you think are “evil”?

Gallant: IDF ‘securing aid distribution’ is a ‘euphemism’ for military rule in Gaza Ousted defense chief warns Israel will pay 'in blood' for government's failure to set up Hamas alternative, as cabinet reportedly set to approve new aid policy to address looting

Let’s indict him for war crimes!

www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-idf-...

Yes but at least there is no uncertainty around “rule of law”, “institutional strength” or the favorite: “state capacity”