Drew Engelhardt

Send Noem Back Home old fashioned marketing post.

Bless DC

We can't even treat the country level variation as informative (left) because acquiescence bias various across cultural contexts too (example evidence right from the link).

bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

That aggregate result is suspicious for multiple reasons now.

bsky.app/profile/stat...

A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Net approval of Donald Trump's handling of the economy in his first term and second term." The chart has the sub-headline: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling these specific issues? [Jobs and the economy / the economy] (% of U.S. adult citizens who strongly or somewhat approve minus the % who strongly or somewhat disapprove)." The chart has the note: "Note: Responses of "not sure" are not shown. Respondents have sometimes been asked about "the economy" and sometimes about "jobs and the economy.""

Economist/YouGov
Net approval for Trump's handling of the economy at this stage of...
• Trump's current term -21 (low -23; start +12)
• Trump's first term +3
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

Just going to assume this is Buddy

Data Visualization A Practical Introduction

Here’s a full draft of the upcoming second edition of my “Data Visualization: A Practical Introduction”: socviz.co

Only if scored by Howard Shore

Nixon v Kennedy polling trend 1957 to final election, with key events indicated. Voter preference is accurately described as “seesawing” Public Opinion Index for Industry report using Gallup data

I do love a nice trendline with event markers

Did Dobbs have a chilling effect on survey responses?

In POQ, Kam & Marcellin find that women were less willing to disclose their pregnancy status in the nation's premier health survey (BRFSS), on the heels of the Dobbs decision.

Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

Oh no

New AJPS Correspondence and Corrections Policies From: Dan Reiter and Adam Berinsky, editors-in-chief This post describes new policies at AJPS regarding Correspondence and Corrections. Maintaining an accurate scholarly record is one of the most i…

The AJPS announces new policies on correspondence and corrections. Read the Editor's Blog here: ajps.org/2026/03/05/n...

psychologists and ingroup/identity folks: any work you can point me to on research that looks at cases where an ingroup lacks a clear outgroup? I'm thinking this may be an intriguing idea for thinking about state identities in the US.

I know finding reviewers is the biggest part of the delay in getting things through peer review, but also not decisioning a manuscript that has at least 3 reviews in with all the same disposition/concerns for over 6 weeks is not great either. Feel for the papers I review that then linger.

The craft beer boom is over. These new breweries find hope in staying small. A new crop of craft brewery owners believe that quality beer is a must, but it’s everything else — hospitality, food, trivia nights — that will decide their fate.

Roughly 200 breweries are expected to open across the US this year. Who opens a brewery in 2026?

I talked to a few of the entrepreneurs behind them: wapo.st/4l336RS

If interested I have some survey data from folks in Our Revolution that speak to demand in the left column that divides in part by the row, and this has shifted some since 2021. Not candidates, but more indirect concern with the row "types."

End of page 19 and on: www.uakron.edu/bliss/docs/2...

Includes panel analysis that links within person changes in Fox viewership to changes in GRT belief.

My kingdom for figures/tables appearing in the body of the manuscript.

With very large numbers of n’s you don’t need randomization, and with LLM’s we can generate very large numbers of n’s, so I think all of science is solved by now. I don’t see any problems with this.

I've found myself using Arizona and New Mexico regularly to talk about context since reading this. Recommend!

Dear ANES community, the link below introduces our new Board of Advisors, led by Jamie Druckman. Jamie follows John Aldrich, who deftly chaired the Board for nearly 2 decades. This new group will guide us through the 2028 election cycle. Our deepest thanks to outgoing and incoming Board members!

My take on the partisan expressive responding literature is now in print. Open access: doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Nice Matt. Looking forward to reading.

Calling all Bayes #stats people, I had a student who wants to do exploratory factor analysis in a Bayesian framework. They are working with indigenous people and developing a scale, and want to incorporate prior knowledge about the factor structure & factor loadings. 1/2

That's wild. I've been hopeful this would help with document management but for every positive I see there seems to be some negative that looks rather basic.

If it is a PDF problem, then this raises interesting questions about the full quality of the training data if unstructured PDFs are included.

I wonder how much of this is also PDFs are apparently not great for machines to read. I've learned a lot about tech accessibility with upcoming university WCAG compliance needs and apparently PDFs present lots of problems to machine readers. But maybe that's a separate issue to this.

Mentions of immigration in some capacity to Gallup's open-ended "most important problem" question, by party.

Mentions of government/parties/Congress in some capacity to Gallup's open-ended "most important problem" question, by party.

Immigration, including ICE enforcement: only recently a top-of-mind issue for many Democrats.

Could be potentially bound up in concerns with "government" if it is part of general dissatisfaction with the administration, but that trend doesn't seem to follow events.

news.gallup.com/poll/702719/...

Thank you!