Andra Garner

Coming up at 2:00 pm at #OSM2026! We hope you'll join us for our session on Dynamic Coastlines Amidst Changing Sea Levels: Advancements in Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Hazards!

We had a great turn out at our Dynamic Coastlines poster session this afternoon! Looking forward to some excellent talks in our session tomorrow. If you're at #OSM2026, we hope you'll join us from 2:00-3:30 for more discussions on coastal climate impacts!

Hey #OSM2026! We hope you'll stop by the first of our "Dynamic Coastlines" sessions this afternoon in the poster hall. We're roughly between boards 815-863. Hope to see you there to talk about coastal climate change impacts!

As Greenland loses ice, global sea levels will rise—and its own will fall The island is rebounding from ice melt so fast that scientists are rethinking how Earth’s interior works

Nice story in Science on important new research from Lauren Lewright and colleagues, exploring sea level fall around Greenland

As Greenland loses ice, global sea levels will rise—and its own will fall | Science | AAAS share.google/fPwiWMjiCFkP...

We had a great turnout at for the first of our Dynamic Coastlines sessions yesterday—hope to see lots of you back for our posters today! #AGU2025

Happening now at #AGU2025! Come out and join us for a great discussion on coastlines in a changing climate!

Coming up in about an hour, we'll be convening our session on Dynamic Coastlines amid Changing Sea Levels at #AGU2025! Please come by and join us—we've got a fantastic line up!

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And whether you're at #AGU2025 or not... Call your members of Congress and voice your support for the vital work that @ncar-ucar.bsky.social does to benefit us all.

If you're at #AGU2025, come out tomorrow to join @wclivestream.bsky.social and show your support for the critical work that NCAR does, and that is now under attack:

wclivestream.com/ncar_at_agu/

If you care about understanding our atmosphere and the way that it impacts our daily lives—from extreme weather to climate change to air quality—you care about @ncar-ucar.bsky.social

Great to catch up with colleagues at AGU in New Orleans!

Excited to see our updated report on New Jersey's Rising Seas and Changing Coastal Storms get published! In addition to new sea level estimates, we highlight changes to coastal storms— including greater intensity and more precipitation—that amplify coastal hazards in NJ share.google/hn924C30ryP6...

🚨 Key highlights from the new publication by @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social, @andrajgarner.bsky.social, @dhrubasamanta.bsky.social, @michaelemann.bsky.social and Benjamin Horton

🔗 Article Link: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

#TropicalCyclones #CoastalHazards #ClimateChange

Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate - Communications Earth & Environment In Southeast Asia, tropical cyclone genesis is projected to shift northward with more seasonal activity and altered landfall patterns, according to analysis of seasonal-scale tropical cyclone genesis ...

🚨 New Publication in @commsearth.nature.com

This new study led by MRG grad student @mackenzieweaver.bsky.social explores tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in warming climates to understand seasonal storm patterns and impacts in Southeast Asia

Article: doi.org/10.1038/s432...

Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate - Communications Earth & Environment In Southeast Asia, tropical cyclone genesis is projected to shift northward with more seasonal activity and altered landfall patterns, according to analysis of seasonal-scale tropical cyclone genesis ...

🌏 New study in @commsearth.nature.com!
Led by Kenzie Weaver, our team explores how tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns in Southeast Asia are shifting seasonally under future warming.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
@michaelemann.bsky.social @andrajgarner.bsky.social @NTUSingapore

Key Finding 3: In a warmer climate, it becomes more likely for tropical cyclones to make their first landfall in the Philippines or Indonesia during the winter monsoon and spring seasons, and along coastlines of mainland Southeast Asia during the summer monsoon and autumn seasons.

Key Finding 2: Proportional increases in tropical cyclone genesis over time exceed 100% during the winter monsoon season, and 50% during the summer monsoon season.

Key Finding 1: From the historical era (1881-1900) to the future era (2081-2100), there is a northward shift in genesis across all seasons, and increased likelihood of genesis near major coastlines

Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate - Communications Earth & Environment In Southeast Asia, tropical cyclone genesis is projected to shift northward with more seasonal activity and altered landfall patterns, according to analysis of seasonal-scale tropical cyclone genesis ...

🚨New paper alert! 🚨
Delighted to share that our new research led by Kenzie Weaver, exploring seasonal variations in tropical cyclone genesis and landfall for Southeast Asia, has been published today in @natureportfolio.nature.com Communications Earth and Environment!
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i do not believe for a second that the hundreds of thousands of layoffs we’re seeing right now are bc ai is replacing them, seems much more likely that the economy is imploding along with corporate mismanagement

Important piece covering the ways in which warm ocean waters--made more likely by human activity--contributed to the catastrophic impacts we're seeing from #Melissa.

892mb, 185mph.

You can spend your career doing work that shows we should expect more dangerous storms in a warmer climate... But it never gets less mind-blowing or heartbreaking to watch something like this unfold.

Roger Pielke Jr.’s Appallingly Bad Analysis of Billion Dollar Disasters – Economics from the Top Down In a recent paper called Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters”, Roger Pielke Jr. published a chart that's so bad I've devoted a whole essay to debunking it.

Finally, an independent expert, political economist @blairfix.bsky.social, has actually taken a look under the hood, digging deep into the details of Roger's methodology, and it's not pretty. Blair's commentary speaks for itself: economicsfromthetopdown.com/2025/10/26/r...

The human and social impacts of #Melissa are almost certain to be beyond devastating.

In my 30 years being a professional meteorologist, I can't say I have ever seen a #Hurricane with better/ more textbook structure than #Melissa in the Atlantic.
It's been a Cat 5 all day long with no signs of getting any weaker. That's a rare run! Here's more...

Storm Melissa's Slow Pace Is What Makes It Risky for Caribbean The slowness of the storm means it is likely to increase rainfall, dumping several feet of water in some areas.

Happy to have provided input for this well-written story by @laurenthal.bsky.social, highlighting some of the reasons to be concerned about #Melissa, and some of the ways that storms like this are becoming more dangerous in a warmer climate:
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Melissa becomes third Category 5 hurricane of the extraordinary 2025 season Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

For only the second time in recorded history, an Atlantic season has produced three Category 5 hurricanes... the previous year was 2005. This puts 2025 in an elite class of hurricane seasons. It also means that nearly 7% of all known Category 5 hurricanes have occurred just in this year.
#Melissa

Changes we expect to hurricanes in a warmer climate include more rapid strengthening, slower forward movement, and more torrential rainfall--all characteristics that describe the incredibly dangerous #Melissa. If you know anyone in Jamaica, please make sure they get to safety.

In First Six Months, Cost of Weather Catastrophes Escalated at a Record Pace

Really glad to hear that @climatecentral.org has been working to revive and maintain the incredibly important "Billion Dollar Climate and Weather Disasters" dataset, as we continue to see human-caused warming making these disasters more costly and dangerous:

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/c...

One killed, dozens rescued after storm slams western Alaska as search for missing continues | CNN Rescuers in western Alaska are working to find missing residents and help the more than 1,000 people displaced after ferocious, hurricane-force wind gusts from what once was Typhoon Halong tore throug...

Typhoon Halong has illustrated this week just how catastrophic such a shift in storm tracks can be, with devastating flooding in communities like Kipnuk after the storm made landfall in western Alaska.

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