Stephen Sutton-Brown

they each picked out their own outfits this morning

StuffPro, PitchPro and Arsenal Metrics now available through TruMedia for NCAA teams 👀

If you're with a team and are interested in access please reach out!

who are the schwelly stans ahead of me

damn snocaps climbed to the top quick

For example: The slower your bat speed the more likely you are to consistently be behind on fastballs, so next steps will need to be controlling for batter's baseline whiff probability by pitch type. Definitely something here but gonna take more work to refine it.

Diff in whiff rate for fastballs vs breaking balls by cumulative fastball timing error

1) Lots of noise!
2) Breaking balls get more whiffs even at extremes

This is before considering some obvious confounders, so most of time it's likely not worth deviating from your game plan.

my strong hope is for it not to be too difficult to pull out. i really want to quantify which catchers are reading swings the best

The reverse is also true: if they've consistently been ahead on slow pitches they're more likely to whiff on another slow pitch

Unsurprisingly, if a batter has consistently been behind on fastballs within an at bat they are more likely to whiff on a fastball and less likely to on a breaking ball than they'd be expected to given a pitch's stuff and location.

that was another that was helped by the twins liking it. they'd spend the whole song asking, "are he sad? are he wanna go home? are he miss he family?"

that tracks

Yes finally, it was long overdue. Dad'd had me listen to the important ones years ago but i don't think i was ready to appreciate them as much as i casually enjoyed them, then never went back until this year. i was floored tbh

My most played if you exclude kid songs music.apple.com/us/playlist/...

we were jamming tbh

@ohkiv.bsky.social @mossymanse.bsky.social 👀 #14

that checks out

first things i thought of were:
*are batters sitting off speed or breaking? arsenal metrics could help here
*are batters sitting fastball /away/ and shocked by it inside?
*are batters bad at timing up fastballs far from league average velo, both faster and slower than average?

Too Much Math About an Old Adage Did you learn “hard in and soft away” as a young baseball fan? I did, and I never tire of finding ways to prove that saying using major league data.

good stuff here, Steele being up there is fascinating blogs.fangraphs.com/too-much-mat...

instantly one of my top 5 greatest 911 specs of all time. the green on green is perfect www.classicdriver.com/en/car/porsc...

Saw the coolest power wheels car of all time today. Look at those details!

Hand built 3/4 scale model of a Testa Rossa

80% average Pitch Type Probability on both the four seam and slider, which takes into account usage by count and handedness www.baseballprospectus.com/player/10612...

holy shit i know so few of these, i am washed 😭

All three of those are good because the takeaways are language agnostic (despite the latter two being written for python). Statistical Rethinking specifically has been translated into a ton of programming languages.

My #1 is always Statistical Rethinking from Richard McElreath (xcelab.net/rm/)

"Data Science from Scratch" & "Essential Math for Data Science" were great, & I went through them at the same time. Understanding the mechanics of data science allowed me to think more creatively about applications.

Keep 'Em Guessing | Baseball Prospectus BP's arsenal metrics can hint at why some guys can seem to get by with less, stuff-wise.

More great and creative use of the Arsenal Metrics from @matrueblood.bsky.social . I'm glad someone picked up on and wrote about these differences in Pitch Type Probability and Surprise Factor, because like Matt I find those pitchers to be fascinating.
www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

it ain’t much but it’s honest work

*quietly evaluating my nephew's hot wheels collection for potential trade candidates*

happy thanksgiving to you too, bud, happy to hear y'all are doing well. miss the old online days

Sonny Gray is 8th in Pitch Type Probability and 13th in Movement Spread, but he's 61st in Velocity Spread and 43rd in Surprise Factor. His Tunnel Pair for every pitch is the SW, whose Tunnel Pair is the four-seam. It feels unique but it works, & it's someone I've wanted the Braves to get for a while

351-Powered, Safari-Style 1973 Ford Mustang SportsRoof Bid for the chance to own a 351-Powered, Safari-Style 1973 Ford Mustang SportsRoof at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #221,153.

energy has moved to Cars And Bids and Bring A Trailer. I'm stewing on not owning this Mustang bringatrailer.com/listing/1973...