Nathaniel Geiger

Yuppppp

We have a new paper out on how the AI boom is creating a scientific monoculture! Everything AI.

"The task for social science is to ensure that, in navigating this moment, we do not become artificial ourselves."

www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Led by the brilliant @cecilietraberg.bsky.social

The political effects of X's feed algorithm https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2 Received: 16 December 2024 Accepted: 4 January 2026 Published online: 18 February 2026 Open access • Check for updates Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects. Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right.

Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement.

This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

Are LLMs Taking Online Surveys? We discuss the results of our study assessing the capabilities of an agentic AI tool called Operator and identifying methods for detecting AI-assisted survey interviews.

Something related:

Journalism is not in fact better when it integrate betting markets.

This new paper offers practical solutions for pluralistic ignorance (when people assume their opinon is unpopular when many others share it):

-in loose cultures, share accurate information
-in tight ones, lowering the costs of speaking up can spark social change.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

One on left is a black dog and above it the words “Reality”. Below it is “I chased a squirrel” One the right is a black dog and above it says “LinkedIn”. Below it says, Proud to announce that I effectively executed a rapid-response squirrel displacement strategy to mitigate potential yard intrusions. Humbled by the unwavering support of my family and local stakeholders. This experience reinforced the importance of vigilance, ownership, and continuous improvement. Looking forward to scaling this impact in future engagements.

😂

It Turns Out Waymos Are Being Controlled by Workers in the Philippines During a Congressional hearing, Waymo's chief safety officer, Mauricio Peña, was grilled over the company's reliance on overseas workers.

Once again, it turns out “fully autonomous” means “a guy in the Philippines.”

Bari’s sole, career-defining trick is to repackage bog-standard elite opinion as something “edgy” and “heterodox.”

There is an audience for that product, and the audience has a lot of spare cash. (You will never go broke telling rich people what they want to hear.)

But it’s a NICHE audience.

Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025 Based on preliminary economic and energy activity data, we estimate that in 2025, US greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4%, marking a change from the prior two years of decreases in emissions.

It probably won't shock you to learn the US regressed on greenhouse gases last year, with emissions up 2.4% after 2 years of decline and even growing faster than GDP. We're moving in the wrong direction.

rhg.com/research/us-...

Journalists often go on hand-fed ride-alongs with agents.

Seldom, though, do they get into the cars of everyday people protecting their communities from those same agents.

We just did exactly that, in ICE-occupied Minneapolis:

via Minneapolis photographer Chris Juhn on Facebook

Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?

In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.

Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

Many religions are heavily concentrated in a few countries Half of the world’s population lives in just seven countries. But some of the world’s religious groups are even more concentrated than that.

MY LATEST: Many religions are heavily concentrated in a few countries.

Associate Professor - Madison, Wisconsin, United States Current Employees: If you are currently employed at any of the Universities of Wisconsin, log in to Workday to apply through the internal application process.Job Category:FacultyEmployment Type:Regula...

We're hiring at the Associate Professor level in Social Psychology! Join us in our vibrant and wonderful department and area. Contact Markus Brauer, search committee chair, for details (markus.brauer@wisc.edu). Job ad here: shorturl.at/nnvv8

Three Surprises From Attempting To Replicate Recent Studies in Top Psychology Journals Amanda Metskas December 4, 2025 How has the replication rate of psychology studies changed in recent years? Are we still experiencing a “replication crisis,” where only 40-60% of results replicate when the study is conducted again?

"Replication rates are higher than experts predicted and p-hacking is much less common than we expected!"

replications.clearerthinking.org/three-surpri...

I say it a lot, but if you want to make an immediate impact get involved in local politics, especially if you're in a smaller community. Attend a planning board meeting. Run for town meeting. Meet with town employees. You can *actually* change things and make your community better.

Google Scholar Is Doomed Academia built entire careers on a free Google service with zero guarantees. What could go wrong?

Since search is dead, how soon do you think Google Scholar is headed for the Google Graveyard? I'm betting it's soon, and academia is NOT prepared

The underlying study: "Experimental evidence of the effects of large language models versus web search on depth of learning" academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...

"participants reported developing shallower knowledge from LLM summaries even when the results were augmented by...web links" vs. search

Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.

Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...

🌱 How do environmental protests affect public option? And what if they are disruptive? We have a 💫 new study 💫 out in the BJPS about public support for environmental protests. (cc @catherinedevries.bsky.social , @simonvanteutem.bsky.social ) Summary below 👇

RGGI exit ends Pennsylvania’s only major climate policy Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) signed the deal Wednesday to leave the regional cap-and-trade system, ending a four-month budget impasse with Republicans.

well, that's (another) dealbreaker for Josh Shapiro in 2028 www.eenews.net/articles/rgg...

😳

NSF is open again!

A few comments:

*Please be patient.
During a shutdown NSF employees cannot open computers or respond to emails.

*Merit review will continue. However panels won’t resume until after Dec 8th.

*POs remain excited and committed to advancing science and the scientific workforce.

Former Gov. McAuliffe joins pro-natural gas group as national co-chair • Virginia Mercury Terry McAuliffe to promote natural gas as a route to long-term energy reliability as renewable energy sources are built out.

Former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe is the latest prominent Democrat to join Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future, a fossil fuel industry front group that seeks to influence liberals to embrace methane gas as clean, climate-friendly energy

Experimental participants to us

A graphic poster with a green, textured background. At the center is a black-and-white image of Earth. Above the planet, a small private jet flies around the Earth, leaving a dark, tangled trail. Across the middle of the image, bold white text on black rectangles reads “CLIMATE PLUNDER.” Below, smaller white text states, “How a powerful few are locking the world into disaster.” In the bottom-right corner, the Oxfam logo and the word “OXFAM” appear in white.

Since 1990, the emissions share of the richest 1% has increased by 13%, and the richest 0.1% has grown by 32%, while the poorest 50% has decreased by 3%.

policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/cl...

Bari Weiss vs. climate change At The Free Press, Weiss consistently rebrands tired fossil fuel talking points as courageous, rebellious dissent.

To understand how Bari Weiss might approach climate coverage at CBS, I read every climate article the Free Press has published.

Almost every one reinforced a common fossil fuel industry talking point—that climate change is exaggerated, that solutions don't work, and that fossil fuels = freedom