SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 06 Aug 2025 20:42:17 +0000
🔥Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... Much of the forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains in place across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Compared to Day 1/Wednesday, slightly stronger deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between the robust midlevel trough and expansive large-scale ridge. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, resulting in 5-10 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another critical fire-weather day across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Midlevel moisture beneath the expansive large-scale ridge will once again contribute to inverted-V soundings and sufficient instability for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Around 0.5 to 0.70 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, and given receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be a continued concern (along with strong/erratic outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 06 Aug 2025 18:56:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The previous forecast remains on track, with only slight adjustments made to the ongoing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 06 Aug 2025 16:14:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains in place across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Compared to Day 1/Wednesday, slightly stronger deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between the robust midlevel trough and expansive large-scale ridge. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, resulting in 5-10 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another critical fire-weather day across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Midlevel moisture beneath the expansive large-scale ridge will once again contribute to inverted-V soundings and sufficient instability for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Around 0.5 to 0.70 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, and given receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be a continued concern (along with strong/erratic outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 06 Aug 2025 06:57:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 06 Aug 2025 06:55:27 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A mid-level trough will gradually progress across the northwestern U.S. through the weekend, before ejecting into the Plains and zonal flow becoming established west of the Rockies by early next week. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to pivot around the main upper trough, promoting critically dry and windy conditions across parts of the Interior West toward the end of this week, with isolated dry thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend. ...Days 3-4 (Thursday-Friday) - Great Basin into the Rockies... As multiple mid-level impulses continue to graze the Interior West, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface wind should coincide with 5-15 percent RH Thursday and Friday. Fuels are receptive across the entire region, and 40/70 percent highlights have been added where confidence is highest in the aforementioned dry/windy conditions overlapping for several hours each afternoon. Surface winds should be strongest across the Great Basin on Thursday, where high-end Critical conditions are possible as a 500 mb wind maximum glances by to the north. ...Days 3-6 (Thursday-Sunday) - Portions of the Southwest... Toward the end of the week into the weekend, isolated thunderstorm development is expected each afternoon to the immediate south and east of the Four Corners region. Modest southwesterly 500 mb flow pivoting around an upper ridge will encourage forward motion of any thunderstorms that develop. Given the presence of a hot and dry boundary layer across the Southwest, these storms should be high-based, with at least a mix of wet/dry storms likely. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added on Thursday-Sunday for areas that have experienced minimal rainfall, and where fuels appear to be highly susceptible to lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 05 Aug 2025 20:23:17 +0000
🔥Days 3-4 (Thursday-Friday) - Great Basin into the Rockies🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... The main change made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights into eastern Utah. Here, sparse thunderstorm development is possible. However, fuels are quite receptive to fire spread, so any lightning strikes that manage to occur will have high ignition potential. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 05 Aug 2025 18:17:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 05 Aug 2025 15:54:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 05 Aug 2025 07:02:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 05 Aug 2025 07:01:27 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 04 Aug 2025 21:04:17 +0000
🔥Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day
5/Friday🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 04 Aug 2025 19:58:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 04 Aug 2025 16:40:27 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 04 Aug 2025 06:59:13 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 04 Aug 2025 06:58:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A persistent mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain across the Northwest U.S. Day 3/Tuesday into Day 7/Saturday. Meanwhile, a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday is forecast to slowly build northwestward into the southern Great Basin through at least Day 6/Friday while remaining quasistationary over the Desert Southwest. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Tuesday - Day 6/Friday... Multiple days of hot, dry and windy conditions are expected across the Great Basin, northern Arizona, and western portions of the Rocky Mountains Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday. At this time, critical fire weather conditions appear most likely across portions of central/southern Utah, far northern Arizona, and far eastern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday as mid/upper-level winds increase over the area sandwiched between the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Thereafter, guidance begins to diverge a bit regarding the evolution of the upper-level trough/ridge pattern. Nevertheless, persistent enhanced deep-layer flow atop receptive fuels coupled with dry to very dry low-levels suggest continued chances for near Critical conditions Day 5/Thursday and Day 6/Friday. Enhanced fire weather conditions are forecast to finally diminish Day 7/Saturday as the trough/ridge shift away from the area. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of Arizona into far southern Utah beginning Day 4/Wednesday through much of the work week. Dry thunderstorms are possible across northern Arizona and southern Utah, where fuels remain receptive to fire spread due to the ongoing severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs and uncertainties regarding coverage/location of any thunderstorms precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 03 Aug 2025 20:45:16 +0000
🔥Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Tuesday - Day
6/Friday🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 03 Aug 2025 18:52:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot (90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills, where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak during the late afternoon/evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California, conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit rapid growth/spread. Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat in the area. The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 03 Aug 2025 16:43:26 +0000
🔥 /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/

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Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 03 Aug 2025 07:05:27 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
INTO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough, enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR, and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms (with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible along the peripheries of rain cores. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 03 Aug 2025 07:02:26 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 Aug 2025 20:33:16 +0000
🔥Great Basin🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 Aug 2025 19:06:26 +0000
🔥 /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/

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Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO... ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 Aug 2025 17:15:27 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH
INTO WESTERN COLORADO🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions (sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph) outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 Aug 2025 16:37:27 +0000
🔥Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 Aug 2025 07:02:13 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 02 Aug 2025 07:01:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z Hot, very dry (minimum RH values less than 10%), and breezy (sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph) conditions are expected today across much of the central/southern Great Basin and neighboring portions of northwest Colorado and southwest Wyoming. As of 16Z, observations across this area suggest locally elevated conditions already ongoing with critical RH values present. Widespread elevated conditions are expected from midday through this evening as winds strengthen and RH values fall even further. The Elevated fire weather area was expanded across this region based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are also likely across wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, where several hours of sustained winds of 15-20 mph (with greater gusts) and minimum RH values near 15% are expected this afternoon/evening. Locally critical fire weather conditions are most likely across portions of southwest Utah, northwest Colorado into southwest Wyoming, and also the Snake River Plain. Though, coverage is forecast to be too spotty/brief to upgrade to Critical across these areas. The forecast for isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West remains on-track. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the previous discussion for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 01 Aug 2025 16:44:26 +0000
🔥 /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/

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Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 01 Aug 2025 06:59:13 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 01 Aug 2025 06:58:26 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
Additional Details Here.

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 31 Jul 2025 20:20:15 +0000
🔥Great Basin🔥
Additional Details Here.