The Institute for Fiscal Studies

Quote from IFS Research Economist Martin Brogaard: "Without substantial increases in devolved revenues, improvements in public sector efficiency or cuts to other spending, it will be increasingly difficult for future Scottish Governments to continue to provide a wider range of free services – such as university tuition and personal care – than their counterparts elsewhere in the UK. The tricky funding outlook also has implications for assessing the plans different parties put forward in the election campaign. Cuts to some taxes or increases in spending on priority items are feasible but will require tough choices elsewhere in a Scottish budget which will already be under strain."

📗 Read our Scottish election report on Scottish government funding, the first of our Scottish election analysis funded by @therobertsontrust.bsky.social and @nuffieldfoundation.org, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Chart shows year-on-year real-terms growth in total resource funding and funding available for public services. Title states: "The continuing squeeze relative to England will be accompanied by much slower growth in funding for public services."

Over the next three years, overall day-to-day spending is expected to rise by 1.0% a year on average in real terms.

But the amount available for public services (rather than devolved benefits) is projected to grow by just 0.3% a year on average – with cuts to many areas planned.

Chart shows Scottish Government resource funding, 2010–11 to 2025–26, adjusted for inflation (2010–11 = 100). Title states: "Despite the squeeze in funding relative to England, overall Scottish Government funding has risen substantially since 2019."

After a decade of real-terms falls in the 2010s, Scottish Government funding has increased in the 2020s.

We estimate that, adjusting for changing responsibilities, funding in 2025–26 is 12.4% (or 6.0% per person) higher in real terms compared to 2010–11.

Scottish funding per person as a share of comparable spending in England, selected years. Title states: "The Scottish Government receives 26% more per person than is spent in England, but this funding advantage is being reduced by the ‘Barnett Squeeze’.

NEW: The next Scottish Government will face tough choices as their funding advantage relative to England falls, making it harder to continue providing more generous services and benefits than England.

🧵 THREAD on David Phillips and Martin Brogaard’s new Scottish election report:

How do Plan 2 student loans work, and how have they changed over time? | Institute for Fiscal Studies Plan 2 student loans were issued to English students who started university between 2012 and 2022.

📊 Read our explainer on Plan 2 student loan changes here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

🎧 Listen to our podcast here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

Chart shows average expected lifetime student loan repayments of the 2022 university entry cohort under different loan terms by lifetime earnings decile. Title states: "Those who started university in 2022 can expect to repay around £16,000 more on average due to changes since they applied to university."

📈 #IFSSatStat: We estimate that those who started university in 2022 can expect to repay around £16,000 more over their lifetimes on average in today’s prices than if government policy on Plan 2 student loan terms hadn't changed since they applied to university.

NEW PODCAST: Are Plan 2 student loans 'unfair'?

@helenmiller.bsky.social, Kate Ogden and @hepi-news.bsky.social's Nick Hillman examine how the student loan system works in practice: who repays what, how this has changed and what it all means for graduates.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/are...

NEW #IFSWorkingPaper: The lifecycle of judicial bias

Omry Yoresh and Weijian Zou's paper traces the lifecycle of judicial bias in India’s criminal courts to see how judicial bias arises and persists in the legal system.

📗 Read here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Very pleased that our paper examining how doctors respond to changes to their pensions is now published in the Journal of Health Economics. We find that consultants in the English NHS responded to changes in their pensions similarly to how existing evidence suggests they may respond to pay.

NEW in Journal of Health Economics: The effects of delayed remuneration on doctor labour supply: Evidence from the English NHS

📗Carol Propper, George Stoye and @maxwarner.bsky.social's paper examines how mid-career doctor labour supply responded to NHS pension reforms: ifs.org.uk/journals/eff...

Devolved elections 2026 | Institute for Fiscal Studies All of our analysis relating to elections in the devolved nations in 2026.

How does the Barnett formula work? What are 'block grant adjustments' and what borrowing powers do the Scottish and Welsh governments have?

➡️ Read our devolved government explainers for the answers, part of our upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections analysis: ifs.org.uk/devolved-ele...

Ad hoc bolt-ons are undermining government’s aims on local government funding reform, but support for historic SEND deficits eases pressure on councils' finances | Institute for Fiscal Studies The government has announced changes to funding for English councils, and that it will compensate councils for 90% of historic SEND deficits.

NEW: Ad hoc bolt-ons are undermining government’s aims on local government funding reform, but support for historic SEND deficits will ease pressure on councils' finances.

📗 Kate Ogden & @lukesibieta.bsky.social respond to the final Local Government Finance Settlement: ifs.org.uk/articles/ad-...

Next Thursday at 3pm we launch @benzaranko.bsky.social's major new report on the UK fiscal framework at our in-person and online event, with a panel including @chrisgiles.ft.com, Victoria Clarke and Rupert Harrison chaired by Gus O'Donnell.

➡️ Sign up to join here: ifs.org.uk/events/does-...

Chart shows year-on-year change in cash-terms Plan 2 student loan balance/

📈 Kate Ogden's explainer on Plan 2 student loans explains why this is the case and shows how much a Plan 2 borrower would have to earn this year for their outstanding loan balance not to increase year-on-year in cash terms.

Read here ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Chart shows year-on-year change in cash-terms Plan 2 student loan balance. Title states: "Someone with an outstanding Plan 2 student loan of £50,000 would need to earn around £63,000 this year for their repayments to offset the interest added."

Many with Plan 2 student loans will see their outstanding loan balance increase year-on-year in cash terms despite making monthly repayments.

Someone with an outstanding Plan 2 loan of £50k would need to earn around £63k this year for their repayments to offset the interest added.

Effects of a ban on psychoactive substances on prisons in England and Wales | Institute for Fiscal Studies We summarise new research that examines how the ban on new psychoactive substances affected drug availability and violence in prisons.

Read the comment here, part of our Transforming Justice project funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/articles/eff...

NEW: The Psychoactive Substances Act successfully reduced access to synthetic drugs in UK prisons, but also triggered a short-lived yet significant rise in interpersonal violence and self-harm.

📗 Rocco d'Este and Magdalena Domínguez's comment summarises new @theeconjournal.bsky.social research:

Interested in working for a think tank? We're taking part in a webinar on Wed 18 Feb hosted by @resolutionfoundation.org for undergraduates or those with similar experience on what it's like working in a think tank and how to apply.

🖥️ Register here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/worki...

Chart shows year-on-year change in cash-terms Plan 2 student loan balance. Title states: "Someone with an outstanding Plan 2 student loan of £50,000 would need to earn around £63,000 this year for their repayments to offset the interest added."

Many borrowers will see their outstanding loan balance increase year-on-year in cash terms, despite making monthly loan repayments.

Someone with an outstanding Plan 2 student loan of £50k would need to earn around £63k this year for their repayments to offset the interest added.

YouTube video by The News Agents Have the Government designed student loans to uphold a generational and class divide?

🎙️ IFS Senior Research Economist Kate Ogden
spoke to @lewisgoodall.com for a special @newsagents.bsky.social episode on how the terms of Plan 2 student loans have changed over time and how this has affected repayments.

📺 Listen here: youtu.be/DwRqHN3nWuA?...

Congratulations to IFS CPP Institute Co-director Professor Sir @richardblundell.bsky.social, who has been awarded the @resmedia.bsky.social Medal for Services to the Economics Profession.

Find out more: ifs.org.uk/news/profess...

Will reforms achieve ‘fair funding’ for English councils? | Institute for Fiscal Studies Changes to English council funding over the next three years will help align funding with assessed needs – but challenges and issues remain.

📗 Read our comment on whether reforms will achieve ‘fair funding’ for English councils here: ifs.org.uk/articles/wil...

📊#IFSSatStat: By 2028–29, most English councils will see their share of funding more closely aligned with estimates of their spending needs. However, a substantial minority of councils are still set to be significantly overfunded relative to their peers.

We're inviting paper submissions for the 1st annual CEP-IFS Labour Conference, which takes place in London on 15–16 June 2026.

📅 Find out more about the conference and how to submit papers by Friday 13 February here: cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/events/...

NEW PODCAST: Did inflation cause the cost of living crisis?

🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @peterlevell.bsky.social and former Bank of England MPC member David Miles investigate inflation: what it is, why it's been high recently, who it hits hardest and more.

Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/did...

An excellent and much-needed explainer of our complicated and controversial student loans system

The Rundown by PoliticsHome: Solving the student loan 'scam' This week we’re delving into the world of student finance, after a long-simmering row over the loan system for how graduates pay back the cost of their tuition exploded into the mainstream, with ...

This week's episode of The Rundown is such a great conversation about the student loan debate

ft @theifs.bsky.social's Kate Ogden, the @smfthinktank.bsky.social's Dani Payne, Labour MP @chriscurtis94.bsky.social and colleague @siennarodgers.bsky.social

Hosted by @alaintolhurst.bsky.social

Quote from IFS Senior Research Economist Kate Ogden: "These are not like normal loans. The amount graduates repay each month depends on their income, with anything unpaid after 30 years wiped with no consequences for graduates. This means many lower earners will never repay more as a result of the interest added to their loans; their loan repayments may be best thought of as a tax."

📊 Read our full explainer on Plan 2 student loans here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Though many lower-earning graduates will see their loan balance increase every year for the next 30 years, they will never repay any more as a result.

The amount actually repaid each month depends on someone’s income, rather than their outstanding balance.

Chart shows year-on-year change in cash-terms Plan 2 student loan balance. Title states: "Someone with an outstanding Plan 2 student loan of £50,000 would need to earn around £63,000 this year for their repayments to offset the interest added."

Many borrowers will see their outstanding loan balance increase year-on-year in cash terms, despite making monthly loan repayments.

Someone with an outstanding Plan 2 student loan of £50k would need to earn around £63k this year for their repayments to offset the interest added.