Howard Eissenstat's Avatar

Howard Eissenstat

@heissenstat.bsky.social

Laurentian Associate Professor of History, St. Lawrence University. Non-resident scholar, Stockholm University, Institute for Turkish Studies (SUITS) Focused on Turkey and the Middle East. Unlikely to argue on-line. Blocks dumb, annoying, or noisy.

9,062 Followers  |  288 Following  |  2,605 Posts  |  Joined: 28.08.2023
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Posts by Howard Eissenstat (@heissenstat.bsky.social)

This is no different from Putin saying MH17 was shot down by Ukraine or Assad saying rebels gassed themselves.

07.03.2026 23:52 β€” πŸ‘ 2961    πŸ” 961    πŸ’¬ 96    πŸ“Œ 24
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Hard Feelings The Iranian diaspora is fracturing in real time, across dinner tables, on WhatsApp, and in the silence of blocked numbers.

Incredibly moving piece on the tensions of Iranian diaspora.

My colleague and friend Narges Bajoghli identifies an β€œanguished double consciousness”: deep loathing for the Iranian regime but unwillingness to celebrate the war’s deaths and destruction.

nymag.com/intelligence...

07.03.2026 23:55 β€” πŸ‘ 58    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 3

There are plenty of collapses of centralized government in Persian history, including the period directly before the Pahlavis

07.03.2026 23:48 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Clearly, this isn’t a top-tier global award. But it’s meaningful in the European local-democracy space. It has symbolic importance. Whether it’ll carry any weight for Δ°mamoğlu is, at best, highly doubtful. He’s facing 2,300 years in prison, and his trial begins on Monday: www.hrw.org/news/2026/03...

07.03.2026 23:14 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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India let Iran warship dock the day US sank another off Sri Lanka, officials say India has allowed an Iranian warship to dock as a humanitarian gesture, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Saturday, after the U.S. ​sank another Iranian navy vessel off neighbouring Sri...

India and Sri Lanka have permitted two Iranian warships to dock.

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

07.03.2026 22:09 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

I agree...a failed state is a realistic "goal."

It may serve Israeli interests.

I have a hard time understanding how it serves US interests.

07.03.2026 23:10 β€” πŸ‘ 41    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0
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Recent U.S. Assessment Found an Attack on Iran Unlikely to Result in Regime Change

"[The report] assessed that a complete change of government was unlikely even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, was killed in a U.S.-led military operation."

And the WH responded tl;dr

Gift link

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/w...

07.03.2026 20:24 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I think the point I was trying to make in my original post is that "gut reflexes" or even "particularly evil" aren't necessarily going to equate with "war crime."

07.03.2026 20:54 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I think you are letting right wing pundits off easy. The idea that a secret Jewish coterie has been behind US wars has been embedded in their world view since "Neo-Cons" and Iraq.

07.03.2026 20:44 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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US/Israel: Investigate Iran School Attack as a War Crime An unlawful attack on a primary school in southern Iran before midday on February 28, 2026 that reportedly killed scores of civilians, including many children, should be investigated as a war crime, H...

As HRW noted, it should certainly be investigated as a potential war crime.

www.hrw.org/news/2026/03...

07.03.2026 20:40 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

International law is not my expertise. My understanding is that it depends on both intent and level of care in targeting.

An actual expert weighed in here:

bsky.app/profile/oona...

07.03.2026 20:39 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base

Even if it is a "mistake," it can still be a war crime. A person who acts recklessly in causing disproportionate civilian deaths can be found to have acted β€œwilfully” and thus responsible for a war crime.

Read "'Mistakes' in War": papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/w...

07.03.2026 14:22 β€” πŸ‘ 80    πŸ” 32    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 5

Actual experts on international law and the laws of war are more than welcome to correct me on this, of course.

07.03.2026 20:32 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

A lot of what is described on this site as a "war crime" might well not be. These laws, after all, were created by states, which gave themselves a lot of room for maneuver.

Attacks on desalination plants doesn't strike me as a difficult case. It is pretty clearly a war crime.

07.03.2026 20:32 β€” πŸ‘ 82    πŸ” 23    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0
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Page One in UK:

@telegraph.co.uk

07.03.2026 12:57 β€” πŸ‘ 3816    πŸ” 1580    πŸ’¬ 250    πŸ“Œ 126

feels telling about American foreign policy punditry that while many decry the aimlessness of Trump’s monstrously wrong Iran war there were far more outraged columns over the harm done to US power and influence and standing and interests and example when Biden rightly withdrew from Afghanistan.

07.03.2026 20:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1159    πŸ” 232    πŸ’¬ 33    πŸ“Œ 11
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Recent U.S. Assessment Found an Attack on Iran Unlikely to Result in Regime Change

"[The report] assessed that a complete change of government was unlikely even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, was killed in a U.S.-led military operation."

And the WH responded tl;dr

Gift link

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/w...

07.03.2026 20:24 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Caitlin KALINOWSKI over X

I resigned from OpenAl. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together.
This wasn't an easy call. Al has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I'm proud of what we built together.

Caitlin KALINOWSKI over X I resigned from OpenAl. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn't an easy call. Al has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I'm proud of what we built together.

OpenAI head of robotics just resigned over company deal with the Pentagon saying…

β€œSurveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got”

07.03.2026 19:05 β€” πŸ‘ 5044    πŸ” 1967    πŸ’¬ 103    πŸ“Œ 162

Turkish authorities will mark the International Women's Day tomorrow by closing the Taksim metro station.

To be expected tomorrow: The women will demand their right to assemble and be heard, the police will beat and detain them, and the regime is horrified of independent, strong women

07.03.2026 19:43 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Post Pezeshkian apology, the rest of the Iranian leadership, political and military, has consolidated around one message - we are continuing to attack regional states. Donald Trump's attempt to frame Pezeshkian's apology as capitulation has achieved the opposite x.com/araghchi/sta...

07.03.2026 17:47 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I finally heard from my 95 year old grandmother in Iran who spent the entire time cursing out Trump. I love and miss her so so much.

07.03.2026 19:16 β€” πŸ‘ 40    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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US Jewish groups ask Pentagon to stop Messianic chaplains from wearing Jewish insignia In combat and remote postings, patches function as a quick signal of religious identity. Mainstream Jews say a group known for Christian proselytization is deliberately misusing them

I dislike Messianic Jews as much as any self-respecting actual Jew should, but the request here for the US government to ban Messianic Jews from identifying themselves as Jews seems problematic under the First Amendment, and also a dangerous precedent: www.timesofisrael.com/us-jewish-gr...

07.03.2026 19:08 β€” πŸ‘ 109    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 11    πŸ“Œ 2
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Had to doublecheck the date on this

07.03.2026 16:00 β€” πŸ‘ 10134    πŸ” 2943    πŸ’¬ 339    πŸ“Œ 214

Hard to know. Trump is certainly worried about the upcoming elections. But he is also very concerned with "legacy."

07.03.2026 18:50 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Canada's Mark Carney tries to strike a balance on Iran The Iran war is posing a test for the Canadian prime minister's "pragmatic but principled" approach to world affairs.

My Globe and Mail op-ed today quoted by the BBC:

"Thomas Juneau, a professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, argued that Carney's stance is likely driven by his need to manage relations with Trump."
www.bbc.com/news/article...

07.03.2026 18:38 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1
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The Iranians trying to 'show the world' the war through a blackout While the country's strict Islamist regime has blocked the internet and other forms of communication for most people, some have found a way to get their stories out.

"It seems there has been no preparation and no strategy to protect civilians. People are very isolated they don’t know how to protect themselves. It’s almost impossible for people [to shelter from air strikes] because there are no shelters."

www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03...

07.03.2026 18:34 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

So far as i can tell, the only "economic news" on Fox's landing page is an article bemoaning LA's minimum wage law.

You'd think a tumbling stock market and rising gas prices would be of interest to Fox's over-sixty demographic, but I guess not.

07.03.2026 18:11 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I believe this is what Israelis describe as a "freier."

07.03.2026 18:07 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Beneath all the reporting so far on the run-up to war is a simple truth:

The President of the United States, a man who holds more power than any human being in history, is a complete rube, easier to manipulate than your average seven year old.

07.03.2026 17:58 β€” πŸ‘ 26    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

There's a lot here, including this:

"I don't blame President Trump for the death of my son, 'cause he wasn't the one who pulled the trigger," Reyes [the victim's mother] said, after noting she voted for Mr. Trump in 2024."

07.03.2026 17:50 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0