Howard Eissenstat

It’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.

Unlike the 12 Day War in which Iran used a certain segment of its missile force to retaliate in distinguishable waves, this is complete chaos. Many missiles across many fronts, potentially with units acting without centralized authority.

They don't make leaders like Ayatollah Khamenei anymore. There was nothing redeemable about him. Unelected autocrat, with the blood of thousands of his innocent compatriots on his hands, bringer of death in Lebanon and Syria, and sower of regional chaos. He was the genuine baddie.

BBC verification journalist

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Iran's attack on neighbors isn't a strategy meant to save the regime.

Honestly, I'm not sure it's a strategy at all.

A bit.

Shrug.

Buttgieg's utterances are, at this point, self-promotion.

Carney has a day job. You might hope for different, but there's a pragmatic logic

In fairness Rubin's always been a hack. And he has no real audience outside AEI's donor list.

I'm not sure that purging the entire Chinese military leadership is necessarily the best preparation for an invasion of Taiwan

Harold Godwinson?

Which, aside from the silliness may be helpful in contrast. The whole point of modern states was to shift "the state" from one man to a beauracratic structure

Iran’s retaliation in the Gulf had been more extensive than I would have expected, striking all GCC states other than Oman and hitting civilian targets.

This will only increase Iran’s isolation and is doubtful to change Trump’s calculus (after all they tried to prevent war and failed)

ICE Moves Minneapolis Fleet to Williamsport Detention Warehouse As ICE builds out a detention infrastructure across the mid-Atlantic, equipment from its Minneapolis operation is heading to Maryland.

Roughly 100 ICE vehicles are on their way to a warehouse in Western Maryland, as signs mount of an impending operation here.

I think, for most countries in the region, the worst possible outcome is a failed state in Iran, with factional fighting, militia, and refugees.

That is, in my opinion, also the most likely outcome of a prolonged conflict.

Random thought

A lot of really good books are going to need a new edition soon.

There is already a sizable Iranian diaspora now in Istanbul and should there be protracted violence, or instability, major Iranian refugee influx to Turkey is inevitable. For comparison, Iran's population is roughly 2.9x Ukraine and 3.7x Syria.

Opinion | Trump’s Strikes on Iran Were Unlawful. Here’s Why That Matters.

The strikes on Iran are blatantly illegal. I explained in June why the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were unlawful under US and international law. Everything I wrote then is true today, but this is a far larger assault with far graver consequences.

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/o...

Turkey's #1 security concern right now.

Most importantly, because it would risk Turkish retaliation

Iran has notably not struck at Incirlik.

Nor do I expect them to.

The best thing about not having a large following on social media anymore?

Not spending fifteen minutes blocking assholes every day.

Civilians across the region facing bombs and destruction and death because some men free of the consequences decided to open hell.

It's been a very long decade.

Statement from COGAT, a branch of Israel’s Defense Ministry: The IDF and the U.S. Army have launched a broad, joint operation aimed at fundamentally targeting the Iranian terrorist regime and removing long-term existential threats to the State of Israel. Accordingly, several necessary security adjustments have been implemented, including the closure of the crossings into the Gaza Strip, among them the Rafah Crossing, until further notice. The rotation of humanitarian personnel is postponed at this stage. It should be emphasized that the closure of the crossings will have no impact on the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip.* The substantial quantities of food that have entered since the beginning of the ceasefire amount to four times the nutritional needs of the population, according to the UN methodology. Therefore, the existing stock is expected to suffice for an extended period.

Israel has closed all crossings into Gaza, including Rafah, with no timeframe for reopening, just 10 days into the holy month of Ramadan. It says existing food stocks in Gaza are “expected to suffice for an extended period.” — not a good sign
x.com/cogatonline/...

I think, for most countries in the region, the worst possible outcome is a failed state in Iran, with factional fighting, militia, and refugees.

That is, in my opinion, also the most likely outcome of a prolonged conflict.

Guessing what Trump is going to do over the next day or week would require me to know who gets to talk to him over the next day or week.

It seems like wasted effort to me.

In any event, this will end in a glorious victory, regardless of whatever happens on the ground

Not sure that this is the outcome that Yahya Sinwar intended

Turkey's #1 security concern right now.

Turkey’s Dilemma: Hawks Demand Action, Elites Choose Diplomacy Amid US-Israel Iran Strikes Public support for confronting Iran clashes with Ankara’s de-escalation push, as NATO surveillance and mediation offers test strategic balance

Turkey’s Iran paradox is stark: public hawkishness vs elite de-escalation. Ankara opposes strikes less out of sympathy for Tehran than spillover risk management (PKK security pressure, displacement, corridor disruption).

Turkey is going to do it's best to stick with regional partners, I think, especially the Saudis.

It won't actively support the US, neither will it risk antagonizing Trump.

It's biggest fear: prolonged instability and a new refugee crisis.

Possible.

Turkey would almost certainly retaliate. It would be a very high risk choice for Iran, with little to gain. Much better to focus on the Gulf.