Bianca Nobilo

What formula doesn’t capture:

•FX shifts – currency changes can offset tariff effects
•Retaliation – does not take counter-tariffs into account
•Supply chains – e.g. rerouting via third countries
•Long-term shifts – firms may relocate, buyers may substitute etc

Intention: eliminate bilateral trade deficit

Depends on:
1. Elasticity. If demand is price-sensitive, small tariff shrinks import volumes sharply.
2. Pass-through. If exporters absorb costs, U.S. prices stay low, imports don’t fall.
3. Larger import volume= bigger tariff needed

Tariff Formula Released by Trump Administration - Explained (in brief!)

This isn’t catch-up. It’s strategic divergence. Shows:

🔹 AI isn’t just about compute.
🔹 Technonationalism is now an accelerant.

#AI #Geopolitics #DeepSeek

🚨 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐩: gap between US & China “is down to 3 months” — Lee Kai-fu, CEO of 01.AI and ex–Google China head (Reuters)

Sanctions were meant to stall. Instead, China’s DeepSeek may now be ahead in AI reasoning + novel reinforcement learning

2/2 how AI will shape society, industry, and—always top of mind for me—the integrity of information and the future of democracy. As AI accelerates and transforms how we work, live and govern, safeguarding what matters most becomes increasingly urgent.

1/2 Feels great to be back—again! I started working in Parliament as a teenager, then spent seven years reporting from Westminster for CNN. Now, im thrilled to be an Advisor to the Parliamentary Group on AI, participating in ethical and practical debates on

Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks We propose measuring AI performance in terms of the *length* of tasks AI agents can complete. We show that this metric has been consistently exponentially increasing over the past 6 years, with a doub...

Full METR report here: metr.org/blog/2025-03...

📢 New Research : Every 7 months, AI doubles its ability to complete long tasks.
🔹 Current models have near 100% success on tasks under 4 minutes
🔹 But <10% success on tasks over 4 hours
This explains why AI excels in benchmarks but still struggles with real-world automation.

4/ The big questions:
🔹 How will automation reshape work?
🔹 Who benefits from this shift?
🔹 How do we ensure AI enhances, rather than replaces, human potential?

3/ The projections? A 20-fold market expansion in 8 years—with tens of millions of humanoid robots by 2050. Apollo is a milestone, but today’s AI is still limited. The real shift comes when robots not just execute tasks, but adapt like humans.

2/ Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says humanoid robots will be widely deployed in factories within just a few years—not decades. Manufacturing is the natural first frontier—structured tasks, controlled environments, and clear economic incentives.

1/ Unlike traditional robotic arms, humanoids are flexible—they can switch tasks, work alongside humans, and reduce production costs without reconfiguring assembly lines. Mercedes-Benz is investing millions in trials across Germany & Hungary.

🚨 Mercedes-Benz Makes History with Humanoid Robots on the Factory Floor 🚨

A 5’8” humanoid robot, Apollo, just completed a fully autonomous task at Mercedes-Benz’s Berlin factory—marking a major milestone for AI-driven robotics.

But this is just the beginning. 🧵👇🏼

DeepSeek and the Promethean dilemma - the ethics of open-source AI Open-source AI offers immense potential — but without safeguards, it risks chaos. Bianca Nobilo of IFS asks if we can harness its power without repeating Prometheus' mistake.

What do AI and Greek mythology have in common?

Prometheus stole fire from the gods— fuelling human progress but also leading to chaos.

Is open-source AI our Promethean fire— powerful, transformative and impossible to take back?

I wrote about it here: diginomica.com/deepseek-and...

3/ Esp in a world of unprecedented interconnection & information, yet fractured by misinformation & polarization, genuine understanding is often overlooked in the haste. Now working in the future-orientated field of tech, I think more about lessons of the past to guide for a more humane future

2/For those of us who live today because of the sacrifices made and horrors endured, there is a profound responsibility to resist dehumanization and uphold human dignity as a guiding principles.

1/3Today, on the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz—and on many other days—I think of my grandfather.

He endured four years in the camp as a political prisoner and spent the rest of his life extending to others the compassion he was denied.

Is the race for Greenland about Rare Earths?

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are often dubbed “the new oil” for their strategic importance driving advanced innovation.

China, Brazil & Russia have some of the largest estimated reserves. Countries with less have to get creative…

like the CHIPS Act and Biden’s AI infrastructure push, and Starmer said it explicitly yesterday: nations are innovating not just to get ahead, but to avoid falling behind in competition where the stakes can’t yet be fully comprehended.

The AI race is Red Queen theory in action. Biologists use this concept to describe how competitors must continuously adapt just to maintain their relative position, as everyone else is advancing. We see this in China’s ambitious 2030 AI leadership plan, driving US countermeasures…

6/ Industrial AI is an example. It can identify high risk areas - like weather patterns in dry vegetation - then predict & carry out preventative maintenance. Automated Shutoff Systems offer another solution, by immediately powering down specific lines when risky conditions occur

5/ Gov & utility companies have a responsibility to adopt new technologies that can help protect against devastation. It works in their favor too. Most importantly by protecting citizens lives. Also easing burden on public services + limiting damage to expensive infrastructure.

4/Despite this, it's forecast that global spending on wildfire prevention, mitigation and response will fall short by over $100B in 2025 according to the ICF.

3/ Energy and utility companies also play their role. Their infrastructure can cause fires; there have been instances of transmission and distribution lines sparking flames through contact with vegetation. Some companies are investing in new technology that can help.

2/ Climate change is partially fueling the problem, in SoCal and beyond. Last year, wildfires shattered historical records in Canada and Greece, while fires in Hawaii and Chile lead to hundreds of deaths.

1/ Dangerous wildfires are ripping through LA leaving communities reeling. Each year, wildfires burn a vast acreage in Southern California. More severe & frequent in recent decades. There’s a $100 billion shortfall in wildfire prevention in 2025. How could tech help bridge the gap?

5/ For success, the law needs clarity in definitions, international cooperation to address cross-border abuse and accountability for platforms hosting this content. This isn’t just about criminalizing behavior—it’s about reaffirming dignity and rights in a digital age.

4/ This isn’t the first attempt. The previous government proposed similar measures in May 2024, but they were shelved when Parliament dissolved. Labour is now fulfilling its manifesto promise, but questions remain: What intent is needed for prosecution? How will "intimate images" be defined?

3/ This gap has allowed a 400% increase in deepfake-related abuse since 2017, according to the UK’s Revenge Porn Helpline. The proposed law will criminalize creating and sharing explicit deepfakes, addressing this loophole.