@abarbashin.bsky.social
Russia foreign and domestic politics. Editorial Director at ridl.io
We at @ecfr.eu are very lucky to host @abarbashin.bsky.social as visiting fellow in Berlin. He has listened to Putin at Valdai for us, so that you don’t have to. You can find his take here ➡️ Enemy number one: What Putin’s foreign policy speech says about Europe: ecfr.eu/article/enem...
03.10.2025 12:24 — 👍 30 🔁 13 💬 4 📌 2
"The gasoline shortage is becoming a systemic crisis. Rugged as the Russian economy may be, it has never faced a situation quite like this under Putin"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/down-to-bras...
Wrote a brief comment on Putin's Valdai speech highlights for @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/enem...
After the parliamentary elections in #Moldova, the key focus for pro-EU forces should be providing economic growth - otherwise Euroscepticism fueled by Russia will weaken Moldova's European future
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
ridl.io/moldova-s-pr...
"Maintaining current sluggish sanctions course could lead to preservation of Kremlin’s confidence in controlling the situation both domestically and in foreign policy, as well as to a gradual US withdrawal from the anti-Russian coalition"
ridl.io/sanctions-de...
Putin is yet again speaking of how stable things are in Russia, signaling that it can fight Ukraine, fight the entire NATO for as long as it takes.
Check this latest @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social weekly economic review to get how problematic things are
ridl.io/the-ongoing-...
Donald Trump unexpectedly praised Ukraine's war effort and even stated that Zelensky might be able to restore his country's full borders. Political analyst @abarbashin.bsky.social argues that it is in fact an announcement of Trump's departure from the peace process.
02.10.2025 06:15 — 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
"This gap between stated reality, official expectations, and daily life is not evidence of an earth-shattering political crisis. It does, however, demand a new level of unreality that cannot overcome talk around the kitchen table"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-ongoing-...
Check this thought-provoking Vladislav Inozemtsev piece
for more details on the sanctions dead we're currently looking at
ridl.io/sanctions-de...
7/7
Putin is hosting a security council meeting today and is speaking at the valdai club event tomorrow.
Get ready for more of the same statement
That want you to have as much fun as possible.
Make some of those good movies come to life
So for an outsider it sounds like Trump administration says they are tired of foreign wars and are fully ready for a domestic one.
This type of rhetoric or hints of it is extremely welcomed by many leaders across the world who want to see USA fighting domestic battles only
Is Russian economy becoming more Sovietized? Can market instrument be enough to manage war-time challenges?
ridl.io/gosplan-2-0-...
This article, from 12 March 2022, IMHO remains one of the best explanations why #Putin and the Kremlins underestimated #Ukraine and decided to launch a full scale invasion.
In short: the longer an autocrat reigns, the more prone he becomes to catastrophic miscalculations.
ridl.io/why-the-krem...
Why should we not expect new and effective #sanctions to be imposed on Russia?
First and foremost, because it is very expensive for the West. In the past, we’ve seen deliberate attempts to downplay the economic costs for the sake of political and moral considerations.
1/7
Trump sounds sad that Putin's effort to quickly recolonize Ukraine failed.
30.09.2025 15:41 — 👍 52 🔁 15 💬 3 📌 2Putin's press speaker says Odesa and Mykolaiv residents want their cities to be part of Russia.
Earlier Lavrov claimed that entire region should be Russian.
I have no doubts that if Putin had the strength, he would have marched there.
Check this thought-provoking Vladislav Inozemtsev piece
for more details on the sanctions dead we're currently looking at
ridl.io/sanctions-de...
7/7
We’re likely getting more of the same with limited effectiveness. So the only way to combat Russia is through the support of Ukraine and waiting for systemic problems with the Russian economy to slowly make the war a big enough problem to cause a systemic crisis.
6/7
making them available for establishing parallel imports and all the other efforts to sustain sanctions and war pressure.
There are no doubts now the West won’t try to split the Russian elite through such a morally questionable but possibly effective policy.
5/7
The other way of depriving Russia of funds was to drain Moscow of resources that super-rich Russians had and wanted to legalize in the West, fully parting with Putin’s regime. Instead, those funds were kicked back to Russia,
4/7
We do not see the political will in neither the EU nor the US to do that. There’s also a huge political risk attached to those measures. Thus, Russia will keep most of its current energy-generated income.
3/7
But the fact remains – sanctions hurt both sides.
And sanctions that would definitely matter—cutting all ties with Russian energy, directly or otherwise, and possibly imposing tariffs on those who buy Russian energy as Trump proposes—would be the costliest so far.
2/7
Why should we not expect new and effective #sanctions to be imposed on Russia?
First and foremost, because it is very expensive for the West. In the past, we’ve seen deliberate attempts to downplay the economic costs for the sake of political and moral considerations.
1/7
Can Russian government be stupid enough to try to emulate Sovietization of the economy with all of its key features when market fails (like with gas supply now because of the drones)?
29.09.2025 16:56 — 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
"This gap between stated reality, official expectations, and daily life is not evidence of an earth-shattering political crisis. It does, however, demand a new level of unreality that cannot overcome talk around the kitchen table"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-ongoing-...
Is Russian economy becoming more Sovietized? Can market instrument be enough to manage war-time challenges?
ridl.io/gosplan-2-0-...
If you want to know how elections are conducted in non-democracies where real competition is dead but state officials still have KPIs and regional groups of interests want to get "proper" regulations adapted, read this.
ridl.io/non-election...
If you want to know how elections are conducted in non-democracies where real competition is dead but state officials still have KPIs and regional groups of interests want to get "proper" regulations adapted, read this.
ridl.io/non-election...
Iranian sentiment toward Moscow is best described as «couldn’t be worse».
Yet despite its grievances, Tehran will likely have to maintain and develop ties with Moscow in the near future.
How come?
ridl.io/discontent-a...
