Natalie Jones

Today's must-read:

"Europe faces a clear choice: allegiance to the US, fossil energy dependence and declining living standards for the majority or an independent foreign policy anchored in green development and wellbeing."

transitionsecurity.org/trillion-dol...

LNG stocks up

US LNG companies to enjoy windfall profits from war started by US government

SACE: non finanziare la distruzione della Patagonia SACE, l'agenzia pubblica italiana di credito all'esportazione, potrebbe sostenere finanziariamente il progetto Argentina LNG, che prevede l’installazione di 6 navi di liquefazione di gas nell’incontam...

If you wish to help stop SACE, here's an action that anyone can take -- writing to SACE and the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance:

actionnetwork.org/letters/sace...

What's more, public finance for fossil fuels has outsize impact on whether projects ultimately get built, de-risking projects and crowding in private financing.

But it hasn't financed any fossil fuels since mid-2024.

Financing Argentina LNG would be a step backwards for SACE and for Italy.

Italy has broken its CETP commitment in the past - nine times, in fact, for a total of USD 3.6 billion.

oilchange.org/wp-content/u...

Collectively, the 40 CETP members have cut their international public finance for fossil fuels by a whopping 78% since the commitment was signed -- a fantastic achievement.

www.iisd.org/publications...

There's just one catch: Italy is a member of the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP), whose members have pledged to stop their international public finance for fossil fuels.

International public finance includes export credit.

cleanenergytransitionpartnership.org/who-we-are/

Reportedly, SACE is considering financing this project.

Back in June last year, Meloni and Milei signed an action plan that aims to exploit the Vaca Muerta unconventional gas field in the pristine San Matias Gulf.

In current circumstances, investing in more LNG seems a bizarre choice at best. Why lock the world into more insecure, volatile, unsustainable energy supply?

But that's what the Italian export credit agency, SACE, is considering doing in Argentina.

@recommon.org

The war on Iran likely brings a new oil price shock and windfall profits.

So, who stands to win?

Our research shows: Last time around (2022), the US reaped the largest fossil fuel profits of any country ($377bn). 50% went to the top 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵

While no country that imports oil will be immune from global price volatility, some are more exposed than others.

Structural reduction of oil & gas import dependence is the only durable protection against shocks like this. That means investment in renewables, storage, efficiency and grids at home.

My thoughts are with the ordinary people of Iran and all countries in the Middle East/Gulf region affected by this war.

My thoughts are also with the people of countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, who will be the hardest hit by rising oil prices due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

We should not be subsidising fossil fuels.

And it's a whopper of a subsidy: The fuel+capital+operating cost of LNG (via BCG "Energy to Grow" report) is $44/GJ, half of that capital+O&M costs, if its for dry-year cover only. So paying the fixed costs with a levy HALVES the LNG price... 1/-

Trump has growing stranglehold over EU and UK energy supply, study shows European countries now reliant on US liquified natural gas shipments, creating risk of higher bills amid recent tensions

"European countries now reliant on US liquified natural gas shipments, creating risk of higher bills amid recent tensions"

We in the climate space have been warning against this for years now. The Adults In The Room all kept insisting we had to switch gas providers for "energy security". Well, look

a chart showing rising ghg emissions in the US - partly thanks to buildings

New analysis out today from Rhodium Group showing data centres were one of the major drivers of the first rise in total economy-wide emissions in the US in years

Uncontrolled growth of demand has helped boost coal growth, in conjunction with the LNG export boom ->

rhg.com/research/us-...

My advice for a student hoping to get a job in climate Every month I speak to at least two or three students who have reached out to me, usually on LinkedIn, who are hoping to get a job once they graduate in the climate space. I figure for each of thes…

I very commonly get asked for my advice to current students seeking jobs in the climate space. So I wrote it up: nataliejon.es/2025/12/09/m...

What did I miss?

Update en antwoorden op Kamervragen over de exportkredietverzekeringen (ekv) voor een LNG-project in Mozambique Minister Heinen van Financiën informeert de Tweede Kamer over de exportkredietverzekeringen (ekv) voor een LNG-project in Mozambique en geeft antwoord op vragen gesteld door de Tweede Kamerleden Hirsc...

And in a lovely end to the day, the Dutch have backed out too from financing this project: www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/k...

Other governments, like the US, Netherlands, Italy and Japan must now follow suit and pull out of financing the project.

What’s more, it would not deliver any benefits for ordinary Mozambicans, with repeated studies showing it would not result in development or energy access benefits.

Many campaigners, in Mozambique and the UK, have worked on stopping this project for many years. It’s associated with tremendous human rights violations amid conflict and insurgency—and it would be a disaster for the climate.

UK to withdraw financing for Total’s Mozambique LNG project Energy chief has warned he is ready to ‘exercise all my contractual rights’ if governments do not stand by contracts

Great climate news: the UK’s publicly-backed export credit agency, UKEF, is withdrawing $1.15b in support for a hugely damaging gas project in Mozambique:

www.ft.com/content/b2ea...

Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief has obtained a leaked copy of the “informal list” of countries that were characterised as “blocking” the fossil-fuel roadmap’sat COP30.

🤥The #COP30 presidency said ~80 countries opposed a fossil fuel roadmap but that included 42 members of the Least Developed Countries bloc which denies taking that position. 14 countries were listed as both for and against!

🔥 investigation by @carbonbrief.org

www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-lea...

Many of us were wondering about this supposed "opposed" list during COP30. Great to have it clarified!

Notably, many of these opposing countries didn't speak out publicly/in negotiations against the roadmap idea -- perhaps not wanting to face criticism.

SCOOP: Carbon Brief has exclusively obtained a list of 84 countries "opposed" to adding a fossil-fuel roadmap to COP30 deal – but our analysis found a series of contradictions & likely errors

For eg 14 on list are also roadmap "supporters"

Read more➡️

www.carbonbrief.org/...

#Breaking | The Gov't of the UK has adopted a policy to ban new oil and gas exploration. 👏

With this plan—which includes just transition elements for workers & communities—the UK becomes the 🌎's largest producer so far to end new licensing.
🧵1/4

@nataliejones.bsky.social

Huge news from the UK today: after UN climate talks in which there was a massive fight over language on fossil fuels, the UK government today announced that it will in fact be keeping many millions of barrels of oil & gas in the ground. Deeds rather than just words for a change! 🧵

👀 So while all eyes were on the budget, Ministers just slipped out their North Sea Future Plan. While it’s good to see them stick to manifesto pledge not to grant new licenses, it’s a shame to see approval of “tiebacks” to existing fields - unnecessary concession that undermines climate messages

North Sea Future Plan for fair, managed and prosperous transition Government sets out plan to manage existing North Sea oil and gas fields, protect jobs and grow clean energy industries.

Speaking of the ban policy, it's just been published www.gov.uk/government/n...