Luis G. Prado

For the record I don’t think Orban will cancel the election. But I hope that my esteemed colleagues rushing to give talks at Mathias Corvinus Collegium ask themselves whether it is the right time to be associated with a Fidesz academic front.

Government-aligned pollsters show Fidesz with a 6pt lead while opposition-aligned and neutral pollsters show Tisza with a 13pt lead. It's the first time since Orban came to power that there's been such a clear split between pollsters

Join Amnesty Intl's David Vig and me in Washington DC for a chat on Hungary ahead of April’s elections!

We’ll discuss how Hungarians are approaching it and what HU can teach countries where human rights and rule of law are at risk.

📅 March 4, 3PM
📍 GMF, 1744 R St NW
RSVP: ssiemek@gmfus.org

Orbán warns that Ukraine will drag Europe into war and spin tales of Ukrainian sabotage operations in Hungary, yet it’s Trump’s Middle East escalation that’s already sending shockwaves to Europe, with Iran targeting a United Kingdom base in Cyprus.
Fearmongering at home, real fallout abroad.

Evolution of Viktor Orbán's government propaganda:

2017: “Let’s not let Soros have the last laugh!”

2026: “Let’s not let Zelensky have the last laugh!”

By the way, can anyone guess the common feature that makes both such convenient scapegoats for a far-right government?

Prostitution and Drug Abuse: How Hungary Is Failing Children in State Care - VSquare.org Children in Hungarian care homes are targeted by criminal networks, with pimps effectively embedding themselves within the child-protection system.

💥INVESTIGATION: In Viktor Orbán's Hungary, children in care homes are targeted by criminal networks, with pimps effectively embedding themselves within the child-protection system. Those working in the sector say they are powerless to stop the abuse.

Orban’s initial plan was likely to keep the election close and then refuse to accept the result. But if he loses in a landslide that becomes impossible. So he’s entertaining more drastic options.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán seeking to drum up votes by doing down Ukraine EU’s longest-serving leader hopes to retain power by telling voters the main threat to country comes from Kyiv

Orbán hopes to retain power by telling voters the main threat to country comes from Kyiv.

My piece from Budapest w Ashifa Kassam

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...

I am very happy (and perhaps unduly proud) that this is out. There are too many people to thank for thoughtful comments, some of them are in the acknowledgements. Also, just in time for the Hungarian elections coming on April 12...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

💥🇭🇺 Opposition leader Péter Magyar leads Viktor Orbán 66–34% on Polymarket. After media reported heavy betting on Orbán’s fall, the site was banned in Hungary for unauthorized gambling. I’ll share insights on Orbán’s failing campaign in my newsletter on Thursday.

✉️ Subscribe: vsquare.org/newsletter

Es triste, pero: qué optimismo pensar que esto (gordo como es) será la peor catástrofe que este energúmeno desatará!

Opposition leader Péter Magyar continues to draw huge crowds as he tours the Hungarian countryside.

Astonishing to see in what has been a stronghold of support for the Orban regime.

The April 12th general election cannot get here a day too soon. 🗳️

📷 Dunaújváros, Hungary.

From an ex-Hungarian MP @dailytelegraphnews.bsky.social, on April elections:

"The question is whether those who write the rules, distribute the money, count the votes, and announce the results will be willing to tolerate a world where they are no longer in power"
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03...

Some good news & important (Grand Chamber) ruling. Tbomk, 1st ever ruling connected to the deliberate destruction of media pluralism in autocratising Member State aka 🇭🇺 Just infuriating it took irresponsible amount of time to get the ruling (more than 5 years for a MS subject to Art 7 procedure!!!)

On a Collision Course How Brussels and Kyiv Can Address Orbán’s Veto Threats and Avoid a Fallout with the Wounded and Desperate Strongman in Budapest

How should the EU and Ukraine address Orbán’s veto threats and avoid a fallout with the desperate and wounded strongman in Budapest?
A short read for the weekend at my Substack #Ballhausplatz.
open.substack.com/pub/ballhaus...

It’s breathtaking to see how much American media will end up controlled by regime-aligned oligarchs.

by Viktor Orbán

I suppose my point is: isn't it naïve to say some Russian-style authoritarian stuff hasn't happened in HU yet, while at the same time acknowledging that's the direction of travel? Of course, nothing happens until it happens, but that's a quite unimaginative form of analysis :)

Political Capital recently ruled out ballot stuffing because HU is not so far down Russia's way yet... But given the stakes for Orbán, what would stop him from doing so? Sure, it'd be a scandal, but hardly at the level of last-minute election law change or cancelling the election outright?

Hungarian opposition groups quit to make way for Orbán challenger Péter Magyar is calling on remaining parties not to ruin chance for regime change

Orbán is facing his toughest challenge in decades from Magyar, a former ally turned foe. But even a small losing party could erode Tisza’s margin and sway the race in Hungary’s complex election system, which can turn an edge in per cent of votes into a big advantage in seats.

EU leaders once again failing the Orbán's extortion tactic test & seemingly ready to illegally bribe him to the tune of €16bn after illegally pushing Commission in Dec 2023 to give him a 10.2bn bribe. And they're doing so days after CJEU Advocate General advised CJEU to annul this decision/bribe..

Because the Ukrainian military has nothing else on their plate to deal with /s

Orbán’s abuse of the veto must not be tolerated | Euractiv Reducing 'sincere cooperation' to a throwaway phrase without practical consequences weakens both the Union’s cohesion and its credibility

Is the EU veto a wild card — or is it constrained by sincere cooperation?

And if so, where’s the line between a legitimate veto and an abusive one?

Orbán is forcing us to answer a question EU law has long avoided ‬⁩
www.euractiv.com/opinion/orba...

What’s happening in Hungary’s election campaign is beyond absurd. The government and Fidesz are driving a narrative filled with constant attacks on Ukraine and Brussels, spreading lies, and now even claiming that @kajakallas.bsky.social called on Hungary and Slovakia to send troops to Ukraine 2/1

💥Here’s Viktor Orbán’s full statement on national security services warning of possible Ukrainian “attacks” on Hungary’s energy infrastructure — and his order to deploy the military.

Critics fear it could serve as a pretext for extraordinary and undemocratic measures before the April 12 election.

The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.

Orban has reneged on his commitment. Hungary now blocks the EUR 90bn EU loan for Ukraine.

The EU might be forced to go back to lending against Russias frozen assets.

So I’m re-upping Paduano and my December piece on the ins and outs of this EU reparations loan.

www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...

Worth noting that what this actually shows is that there are a lot of undecideds, and that there’s a good chance a disproportionate number of those undecideds are leaning Fidesz, given how robust Tisza’s support seems to be among certain voters.

💥🗳️ Bombshell poll in Hungary: 55–35 lead for Péter Magyar’s TISZA over Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP – enough for a supermajority in parliament.

The survey was conducted by Medián, widely seen as the country’s most reliable pollster, for @hvghu.bsky.social.

Fieldwork: Feb 18–23, 1,000 respondents.

YouTube video by ARTE.tv Documentary Orban's Deepfake | ARTE.tv Documentary

First time I see international attention on this particular piece of disgusting campaign crap the Orbán regime produced. Which is not surprising, given that it didn't make all that big of a splash here either... which WAS surprising for me, I mean at the time this was a new low. (By now, though...)

TISZA Decided voters 50 40 30 55% 35% 20 10 FIDESZ TISZA Medián survey 2026. FEBRUARY 18-23.

The latest Medián survey for Hungary - a 20-point gap between Peter Magyar’s TISZA and Orban’s Fidesz. That’s the largest TISZA lead so far.

Could Viktor Orbán Lose in April? Zselyke Csaky explains why Europe’s most notorious strongman has good reason to worry about his hold on power.

Hungary's most trusted pollster, Median, came out with polling showing a massive lead for the opposition this morning. But why is Orban's power suddenly under threat? I've tried to answer this question for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/h...