Luis G. Prado

Their intentions are similar but their methods are so different it's hard to use Orbán to gauge Trump. Orbán used the law, proceeded step by step mantaining plausible deniability and had years to let voters stew in his media control

Trump's "shock and awe" methods' flaw is they stiffen resistance

Orbán played a very subtle game where he was hoping his words would be misconstrued and ellicit a reaction. He succeeded

Now it's clear he was foreshadowing the TEK operation that *forcefully* arrested the Ukrainian bank workers and seized the money and gold they were transporting through Hungary

🗳️🇭🇺Maybe only interesting to Hungary watchers, but the April 12 election will already be historic in one way: neither the former ruling Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), heir to the communist-era state party, nor the once far-right Jobbik will be on the ballot. Former PM Ferenc Gyurcsány is out, too.

Not that the Fidesz government cares in the slightest what we pesky liberal foreigners think, but HU is such an outlier in the European consensus! I met a Western European who arrived in Budapest, encounterd the anti-Ukrainian propaganda and automaticaly thought it must be a joke or a parody :(

“We don’t owe Ukraine anything,” said the #Hungarian FM at an anti-Ukraine protest in Budapest at the Ukr embassy. The ruling Fidesz party claims Zelenskyy is trying to interfere in Hungarian elections as tensions between the countries escalate.

"According to Oschadbank’s estimates, the convoy was carrying approximately $40 million, €35 million, and about nine kilograms of gold at the time of the detention."

Today in Budapest:

"Don't let Zelensky have the last laugh!"

The exact same wording of the 2017 campaign against Soros

"The Jew laughing at you" is an anti-Semitic trope known from inter-war propaganda

Both Soros and Zelensky are Jewish

You do the math

Not in the context of Orbán's ongoing propaganda campaign to picture Ukraine as a threat to Hungary, which has been going on for a long time and reached a new low yesterday when Orbán threatened to use force to open the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine and Zelenski answered in kind

Yesterday was an exchange of rhetoric from both sides

But now Orban seems to have escalated into outright hostage taking in order to pressure Ukraine to restore the damaged Russian oil pipeline

This is madness and the EU needs to come down on Orban like a ton of bricks

💥SCOOP: Putin tasked Sergei Kiriyenko to run a Moldova-style election meddling operation in Hungary for Orbán, sending three GRU-linked political technologists with diplomatic or service passports to operate from the Russian Embassy in Budapest. More in my newsletter: vsquare.org/goulash-krem...

At least now we know what all those rumours about a border clash or false-flag operation were about: Orbán didn't need to actually use the military, just posturing was enough to provoke Ukraine and... run the campaign under a "I'll protect you from Ukraine" theme? Extreme, but may work

After spending four years calling himself the only pro-peace leader in the EU, I wonder how this pivot to openly threatening with the use of force will go down among his voters? Does provoking Ukraine truly feel like "the safe choice" that Fidesz is offering in their campaign?

For years Orbán has presented himself as a peacemaker. No matter the peace he had in mind was Ukraine's surrender. Now he threatened to use force to provoke a Ukrainian response and paint them as the enemy. Also a trap for the opposition to paint them as traitors if they don't threaten Ukraine too

Europe / Hongrie / Instrumentalisations / A l'approche des élections hongroises, Viktor Orban menace d’utiliser la force contre l’Ukraine

I agree this feels like Orbán has finally succeeded in putting the spotlight on one artificial issue of his own creation (the "Ukrainian threat"), which gives him the upper hand

But to achieve this he had to explicitly threat to use force against Ukraine. Truly unhinged move, hardly "pro-peace"

Orban wants „to break the Ukrainian oil blockade by force“. Hear, hear..

I’m seriously intrigued to see how he intends to do that.

YouTube video by Direkt36 A CSAPDA (THE TRAP) - Az Orbán-korszak elvesztett lehetőségeinek története

Here's the documentary that 1.1 million Hungarians have watched over the past week, documenting the damage that Viktor Orban's regime has done to health, education and public transportation in Hungary
with English subtitles:
youtu.be/9NQEcLIiOpM?...

break through with what, exactly

don't show me the photo of the Lynx, it's a paper kitten

Well, it's not necessary that something actually happens for Orbán's propaganda to make a big deal out of it. They are equally happy making up stuff from whole cloth. Since propaganda against you is going to be unleashed anyway, you are better off playing hardball. This goes for the EU, Ukraine, etc

I think it was @gscheiring.bsky.social who wrote that Fidesz runs on hate, fear and money. When short of money, fear and hate it is

There was the "Good News" campaign, but that didn't get anywhere, and of course the usual pre-election financial transfers for targeted segments, which has been proven to work for Fidesz (indeed, why run a welfare state if you can just make voters happy at the right time with arbitrary largesse?)

For a long while it has seemed that Magyar's counternarrative telling Hungarians "it's the corruption, stupid" was sticking, but I'm concerned a big international crisis just before the elections could mean that fear will blind enough voters to anything else, pushing Orbán over the top. Again

Also, let's not forget that historically Hungarian rightwingers, while presenting their country as a plucky survivor, indulge time and again in appeasement of whatever regional power has the upper hand at a given time. There's a deep streak of craven submission to power in Hungary, and Orbán uses it

It's even more devious than that: Orbán's propaganda has the power to turn uncertainly into support for the leader, so the worse the international crisis created *by his own allies*, the more opportunities for him to present himself to Hungarians as a protector. It's a racket

Orban may blame Ukr&EU for everyone of its problems. But, Ru caused the inflation spike & hydrocarbon shortage in 2022. Now, Trump causes a new spike in oil/gas prices & maybe fosters a new refugee crisis in Eur. It’s Orban’s friends who have done more to undermine his goals. He just wont admit it

New Válasz Online podcast: how foreign policy narratives intersect with Hungary’s election campaign.

While Fidesz highlights geopolitical crises (Ukraine tensions, attacks on Iran), Tisza aims to bring the debate back to everyday realities.

🎧 Watch here: www.valaszonline.hu/2026/03/03/o...

For the record I don’t think Orban will cancel the election. But I hope that my esteemed colleagues rushing to give talks at Mathias Corvinus Collegium ask themselves whether it is the right time to be associated with a Fidesz academic front.

Government-aligned pollsters show Fidesz with a 6pt lead while opposition-aligned and neutral pollsters show Tisza with a 13pt lead. It's the first time since Orban came to power that there's been such a clear split between pollsters

Join Amnesty Intl's David Vig and me in Washington DC for a chat on Hungary ahead of April’s elections!

We’ll discuss how Hungarians are approaching it and what HU can teach countries where human rights and rule of law are at risk.

📅 March 4, 3PM
📍 GMF, 1744 R St NW
RSVP: ssiemek@gmfus.org

Orbán warns that Ukraine will drag Europe into war and spin tales of Ukrainian sabotage operations in Hungary, yet it’s Trump’s Middle East escalation that’s already sending shockwaves to Europe, with Iran targeting a United Kingdom base in Cyprus.
Fearmongering at home, real fallout abroad.