Noah Frank

I almost hit Billy Crystal in the face with a baseball 5 minutes before a specific movie scene that could not be reshot

*broke a uniformed Marine veteran’s hand

Trying to imagine the meltdown that would be happening if a Democratic lawmaker did that

Elon Musk’s “Vox Populi, Vox Dei” tweet

Hmm sounds a lot like what someone else in the Epstein Files would say

smh out here trying to bury your connection to the Epstein Files, I see

Privately, I don’t even know if he’d argue with that assertion

Most of the handful of polls recently conducted in the Democratic Texas Senate primary show Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading Texas State Rep. James Talerico by 6-8 points (though one poll has Talerico up by a similar margin). And yet, the odds on Kalshi for this race favor Talerico, and had reached as high as 78% earlier this week. This can’t be explained away, as the gap between the polls and the betting markets for the 2024 presidential election was, by so-called quiet Republican voters, as it’s a Democratic primary. And I don’t claim to have some crystal ball into the reason behind this, but here’s what I do know: money moves these markets. Those markets — especially when they’re broadcast on CNN (which struck a deal with Kalshi in December), or show up on Substack (which just inked a deal with Polymarket) — impact perception. And perception often drives action. Or, to put it more bluntly, people like to vote for the candidate they think will win. While there’s no such thing as a lead in elections until the votes are actually counted, there is absolutely movement based on perception. It impacts funding, both from big and small donors. It impacts media coverage and the way the candidates are discussed. If prediction markets begin to take even some of the weight away from polling in the way candidates are viewed and discussed, this could have a dramatic impact on the political landscape moving forward. And since those numbers are driven entirely by money — by physical bets placed one way or another — these markets become just another unregulated way for those with the most money to wield it to influence our elections.

I specifically referred to the gap between the polls and the betting markets in the Texas Democratic Senate primary in this piece. Was that because of the fundraising difference? Vibes? Something else? pretty-good.ghost.io/sports-betti...

My “everything is sportswriting” theory includes these slop articles, which were the first attempted incursion into journalism by AI written stories. As noted below, they were generic, often inaccurate, and everyone hated them bsky.app/profile/stho...

Scientific American has updated the figure, now grouped into swimmers, fliers, walkers/runners, and vehicles. A person on a bicycle remains the most efficient way to travel, compared to all forms of biological locomotion and mechanical transport.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-hu...

There are so many incredible parts of this, but don’t sleep on “rhinos”

Got it in the inbox

After finding there had been “mass confusion” over where voters were supposed to vote, a judge ordered that Democrats in Dallas County have until 9 p.m. Central time to cast ballots.

Well, that doesn’t bode well for
November

I’d been meaning to finally add this to my 2026 reading list. Just picked up the paperback, looking forward to digging in (after I finish the other two books I’m reading)

CBP Tapped Into the Online Advertising Ecosystem To Track Peoples’ Movements An internal DHS document obtained by 404 Media shows for the first time CBP used location data sourced from the online advertising industry to track phone locations. ICE has bought access to similar t...

New from 404 Media: CBP tapped into the online advertising ecosystem to track peoples' movements, according to an internal DHS document. Shows for the first time DHS tracked phones via process for putting ads in ordinary apps—video games, fitness apps, many more www.404media.co/cbp-tapped-i...

Went to sleep thinking about this, woke up thinking about this. There have been lessons pouring in from Ukraine the last couple years about the new face of drone-driven warfare. I wonder who’s learned them.

And never averaged even 3 points a game. An all-time "oh, yeah, wow, that guy" guy. Plus, a legendary name

Sports betting In early March of 1997, I went on a ski trip with my parents. We normally made the drive up Interstate 80 to Lake Tahoe from the Bay Area at least once a year, but almost always to Northstar, on the n...

Man I ALMOST put Michael Dickerson in the opening of this pretty-good.ghost.io/sports-betti...

DeSagana Diop

I haven't forgotten!

If by "his" you mean Hegseth, yes. I don't think for a second that Trump believes any of this stuff

Everyone needs to stop and read what's happening in our military ranks. This is insanity.

JFC. Everything is sportswriting. bsky.app/profile/bubb...

*sighing through gritted teeth*

Everything is sportswriting bsky.app/profile/mike...

If you’re a college hoops fan I need you to go find the Howard-Coppin State game on ESPN+ to listen to the white dude with a hilarious Cajun accent on color commentary

This is an insightful article about what seems to be a niche topic but is a major force in our society…

This is a great read.
"There is a particular affinity among young people, especially young men, to view being right as the most important thing you can be. It’s the central animating force behind the “debate me” culture"

Thanks!

😑

OK, but am I gonna be able to bike home through it

It’s really quite striking how much it has all devolved so quickly. And being there in the city council meetings at the start, I can tell you just how little the people in charge of greenlighting it seemed to understand

There's lots to worry about in the world right now, but prediction markets aren't prompting enough public concern.

Why? For one, Kalshi's Tarek Mansour says "The long-term vision is to financialize everything." Which is terrifying given that financialization opened the door for fascism in the US.