Michael A. Cohen

My latest for Truth and Consequences: After Saturday's 31-point flip in a state Senate special election in Texas, it's getting increasingly difficult to ignore the evidence that a Blue Wave is coming this November.

For the first time since Trump took office, the White House is on the defensive over its campaign of mass deportation, and looking for an exit ramp ... open.substack.com/pub/truthand...

We've never had a president so indifferent to doing popular things and so unrestrained by normal political incentives as Donald Trump. truthandcons.substack.com/p/donald-tru...

Opinion | Mark Carney spoke for America’s frustrated allies — but they’re not going anywhere Michael A. Cohen: America’s Western allies have had enough — or so they say.

OPINION by @speechboy71.bsky.social:

“Perhaps this time is different, and America’s allies have reached their breaking point with America’s bullying and dalliance with unilateralism. But skepticism is warranted.”

READ MORE:
www.ms.now/opinion/mark...

We've never had a president so indifferent to doing popular things and so unrestrained by normal political incentives as Donald Trump. truthandcons.substack.com/p/donald-tru...

Why Democrats Have To Pack the Supreme Court If you are a free subscriber and you like what you’re reading, maybe it’s time to upgrade to a paid subscription.

When you see the very non-radical @speechboy71.bsky.social making this argument, you know that the Dems are in the process of coalescing around some kind of serious court reform. truthandcons.substack.com/p/why-democr...

Republicans are suddenly in a health care bind Democrats weren’t able to extend Obamacare subsidies during the shutdown, but now the GOP is facing steadily increasing pressure.

One of the unexpected byproducts of the Democratic "cave" in ending the shutdown is that it may have increased the odds of Republicans finally backing down on extending Obamacare subsidies www.ms.now/opinion/msnb...

Trump Explodes in Angriest Epstein Tirade Yet as Allies Visibly Panic With Trump distracted by Jeffrey Epstein even as allies and advisers fret about the midterms, the author of a new piece on Trump’s standing decodes why his approval is hitting dangerous new lows.

"Trump is historically and deeply unpopular. it’s not just that people disapprove of him; they strongly disapprove of him. This is the biggest story in US politics. [It's] bad for Rs and getting worse."

On the pod @speechboy71.bsky.social is great on the big picture:
newrepublic.com/article/2032...

Are Democrats Too Liberal? Not in the places where it matters most. Also, I'm not THAT Michael Cohen

Anyway, here's a longer version of this argument ... truthandcons.substack.com/p/are-democr...

I'd argue Republicans have underperformed so badly in swing states because they nominate extremist candidates, don't moderate their policies, and fail to appeal to swing voters.

I'd argue Democrats have done this by doing precisely what pundits claim they need to do to win back the Senate -- moderating their policies, running to the center on hot-button GOP-dominant issues like immigration

The bottom line here is that in the most narrowly divided states in the country, Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates dominate and have been far more effective at both maintaining their political base but also winning over moderate/centrist/and split ticket voters.

b) The dropoff in male voters when Democrats nominate a female presidential candidate. Since the divides are so narrow in swing states, that leakage is magnified in ways that wouldn’t be the case in blue or red states.

Indeed, one of my favorite data points from the 2024 election is that Harris got more votes than Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania ... and Democratic Senate candidates still won in MI and NV

Trump’s success in these states is IMHO due to two sui generis factors a) Trump-only voters who support the president but don’t feel the same affinity for other Republicans ...

The obvious rejoinder to this argument is that Trump has won 14 of 21 elections in swing states over the last three presidential elections.

In governor’s races, the Democrats are just as dominant: they hold five of the seven governor’s mansions. Even when it comes to state attorneys general, Democrats hold a dominant position. In 5 of the seven swing states, Democrats hold that job.

Most notably, Democrats won four of the five Senate races in swing states in the 2024 election, even as Trump won all seven swing states. There are ten Democratic senators in states that Trump won in 2024. There is one Republican senator in a state that Harris won in 2024.

Since 2016, Democrats have won every Senate race in Nevada, Michigan, and all 4 Senate races in Arizona. Since 2020, they’ve won 3 separate Senate races in Georgia. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the two parties have gone 2-2, and Republicans have run the table in North Carolina.

And the Democratic track record in swing states is remarkably solid. In the seven swing states, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, Democrats control 10 of 14 Senate seats (70 percent).

Swing states offer a test case for how successful the two parties are in places where a) they aren't swimming against the tide of partisanship & b) there is a closely divided electorate. Also, it tells us how effective the two parties are at winning over the political center

One of the strange things about the argument made by Ezra Klein, Adam Jentleson, Matt Yglesias and others that Dems need to moderate their policies and expand the Senate map is that it oddly ignores how remarkably successful Dems are in winning statewide races in swing states 🧵

Our Deeply Unpopular President The numbers don't lie. Donald Trump is unpopular and the political consequences for him and his party could be dire.

Donald Trump is deeply unpopular. It's the single most important development in American politics today truthandcons.substack.com/p/our-deeply...

Los Angeles Agonistes As violence and political protest unfolds in LA, some political pundits see the sit there as a net positive for Trump ... I'm not so sure.

The political conventional wisdom is that violence on the streets of LA will provide a political boost for President Trump. Here’s why the conventional wisdom is probably wrong. truthandcons.substack.com/p/los-angele...

Opinion | The uncomfortable truth about Democrats' problem reaching male voters The numbers tell a sobering tale.

OPINION by @speechboy71.bsky.social:

Michael highlights a new report suggesting a simple reason for the Democrats’ 2024 loss.

“Female support for the Democratic ticket was constant throughout these four elections; only male support for Democrats fluctuated.”

READ MORE:

this was a great conversation between @gregsargent.bsky.social and @speechboy71.bsky.social about the role of Stephen Miller

This was on full display last night during the interview with Terry Moran. Trump made it clear he's not in control and just repeats the lies he's fed

Indeed, something odd going on here.

Read @gregsargent.bsky.social exchange with @speechboy71.bsky.social⤵️

Note: DOJ has completely mischaracterized (and even misquoted) the Supreme Court order in filings before district court in Abrego Garcia's case.

And here's the Q&A with President Trump:

This convo bw @gregsargent.bsky.social & @speechboy71.bsky.social gets at the imp dynamic we explained in our @msnbc.com piece, and the prominent role Stephen Miller is playing in this mess

DOJ’s filings after Miller’s comments become more recalcitrant and misleading

www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

The Daily Blast: Trump’s Fury at Bad Polls Goes Nuclear as Allies Rush to Calm Him Down Podcast Episode · The DSR Network · 04/29/2025 · 21m

On The Daily Blast, @gregsargent.bsky.social talks to @speechboy71.bsky.social. He explains how we know Trump’s aides are keeping him in a state of delusion, and why that’s heading to an alarming place. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...