Michael A. Cohen

Are Democrats Too Liberal? Not in the places where it matters most. Also, I'm not THAT Michael Cohen

Anyway, here's a longer version of this argument ... truthandcons.substack.com/p/are-democr...

I'd argue Republicans have underperformed so badly in swing states because they nominate extremist candidates, don't moderate their policies, and fail to appeal to swing voters.

I'd argue Democrats have done this by doing precisely what pundits claim they need to do to win back the Senate -- moderating their policies, running to the center on hot-button GOP-dominant issues like immigration

The bottom line here is that in the most narrowly divided states in the country, Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates dominate and have been far more effective at both maintaining their political base but also winning over moderate/centrist/and split ticket voters.

b) The dropoff in male voters when Democrats nominate a female presidential candidate. Since the divides are so narrow in swing states, that leakage is magnified in ways that wouldn’t be the case in blue or red states.

Indeed, one of my favorite data points from the 2024 election is that Harris got more votes than Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania ... and Democratic Senate candidates still won in MI and NV

Trump’s success in these states is IMHO due to two sui generis factors a) Trump-only voters who support the president but don’t feel the same affinity for other Republicans ...

The obvious rejoinder to this argument is that Trump has won 14 of 21 elections in swing states over the last three presidential elections.

In governor’s races, the Democrats are just as dominant: they hold five of the seven governor’s mansions. Even when it comes to state attorneys general, Democrats hold a dominant position. In 5 of the seven swing states, Democrats hold that job.

Most notably, Democrats won four of the five Senate races in swing states in the 2024 election, even as Trump won all seven swing states. There are ten Democratic senators in states that Trump won in 2024. There is one Republican senator in a state that Harris won in 2024.

Since 2016, Democrats have won every Senate race in Nevada, Michigan, and all 4 Senate races in Arizona. Since 2020, they’ve won 3 separate Senate races in Georgia. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the two parties have gone 2-2, and Republicans have run the table in North Carolina.

And the Democratic track record in swing states is remarkably solid. In the seven swing states, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, Democrats control 10 of 14 Senate seats (70 percent).

Swing states offer a test case for how successful the two parties are in places where a) they aren't swimming against the tide of partisanship & b) there is a closely divided electorate. Also, it tells us how effective the two parties are at winning over the political center

One of the strange things about the argument made by Ezra Klein, Adam Jentleson, Matt Yglesias and others that Dems need to moderate their policies and expand the Senate map is that it oddly ignores how remarkably successful Dems are in winning statewide races in swing states 🧵

Our Deeply Unpopular President The numbers don't lie. Donald Trump is unpopular and the political consequences for him and his party could be dire.

Donald Trump is deeply unpopular. It's the single most important development in American politics today truthandcons.substack.com/p/our-deeply...

Los Angeles Agonistes As violence and political protest unfolds in LA, some political pundits see the sit there as a net positive for Trump ... I'm not so sure.

The political conventional wisdom is that violence on the streets of LA will provide a political boost for President Trump. Here’s why the conventional wisdom is probably wrong. truthandcons.substack.com/p/los-angele...

Opinion | The uncomfortable truth about Democrats' problem reaching male voters The numbers tell a sobering tale.

OPINION by @speechboy71.bsky.social:

Michael highlights a new report suggesting a simple reason for the Democrats’ 2024 loss.

“Female support for the Democratic ticket was constant throughout these four elections; only male support for Democrats fluctuated.”

READ MORE:

this was a great conversation between @gregsargent.bsky.social and @speechboy71.bsky.social about the role of Stephen Miller

This was on full display last night during the interview with Terry Moran. Trump made it clear he's not in control and just repeats the lies he's fed

Indeed, something odd going on here.

Read @gregsargent.bsky.social exchange with @speechboy71.bsky.social⤵️

Note: DOJ has completely mischaracterized (and even misquoted) the Supreme Court order in filings before district court in Abrego Garcia's case.

And here's the Q&A with President Trump:

This convo bw @gregsargent.bsky.social & @speechboy71.bsky.social gets at the imp dynamic we explained in our @msnbc.com piece, and the prominent role Stephen Miller is playing in this mess

DOJ’s filings after Miller’s comments become more recalcitrant and misleading

www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

The Daily Blast: Trump’s Fury at Bad Polls Goes Nuclear as Allies Rush to Calm Him Down Podcast Episode · The DSR Network · 04/29/2025 · 21m

On The Daily Blast, @gregsargent.bsky.social talks to @speechboy71.bsky.social. He explains how we know Trump’s aides are keeping him in a state of delusion, and why that’s heading to an alarming place. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Donald Trump’s recent interview with Time magazine suggests that he is doing the policy bidding of Stephen Miller and is simply unaware that his administration is breaking the law in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation case. truthandcons.substack.com/p/is-stephen...

If we're going to have a constitutional crisis let's have a proper one where none of the principals are confused about what's happening!

Donald Trump’s recent interview with Time magazine suggests that he is doing the policy bidding of Stephen Miller and is simply unaware that his administration is breaking the law in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation case. truthandcons.substack.com/p/is-stephen...

Opinion | Trump’s tariff ‘dealmaking’ reveals how the GOP has betrayed real conservatism The president has fostered the kind of economic and political uncertainty that Republicans used to rail against.

OPINION by @speechboy71.bsky.social:

Michael writes that while Republicans define themselves as conservatives, they have ‘discarded any notion of actual conservatism.’

“The GOP is the party of Trump — and defined not by ideology, but rather clownish cultism.”

READ MORE:

Trump Doesn't Want Trade Negotiations Our dumb as a box of rocks president is intent to destroy the US economy to realize his distorted economic vision

Lots of people are trying to convince themselves that Trump is imposing tariffs as an opening volley in trade negotiations. But it's simply not true. Trump wants to end trade deficits, and he's too stupid to realize that his plan won't work ... truthandcons.substack.com/p/trump-does...

The Latest for Truth and Consequences: I've long thought Prohibition was America's stupidest moment ... but in the past week, Trump may have topped that idiocy truthandcons.substack.com/p/americas-d...

The Latest for Truth and Consequences: I've long thought Prohibition was America's stupidest moment ... but in the past week, Trump may have topped that idiocy truthandcons.substack.com/p/americas-d...

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A “TRADE DEFICIT”—IT’S JUST CALLED “BUYING THINGS.” YOU DO NOT HAVE A TRADE DEFICIT WITH YOUR DENTIST JUST BECAUSE HE NEVER BUYS ANYTHING FROM YOU.

I think it’s probably true many Trump voters “didn’t vote for this.” But if so, then they voted either without knowing or without thinking seriously about policies he constantly insisted he was going to implement, which is also pretty culpable. If you’re that uninformed or unreflective, stay home.