Jacob Edenhofer

A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168

New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.

Introduction - Climate Adaptation Developing countries face the joint challenges of reducing poverty and adapting to a changing climate, while in some cases also needing to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. From 1990 to 2015, the global extreme-poverty rate (as measured by the $2.14 per day benchmark) fell steadily, but in recent years this progress has slowed, and in some instances reversed (World Bank 2020). Currently, 60% of the world’s population lives in a place where a hotter year causes lower GDP growth, and by 2100, 75% will (Acevedo et al. 2017). Therefore, even if the ambitious global target of limiting...

Developing countries face the joint challenges of reducing poverty and adapting to a changing climate, while in some cases also needing to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Read our VoxDevLit on Climate Adaptation to learn more: https://ow.ly/4ejQ50Xu01g

Parallel processing in purrr 1.1.0 The functional programming toolkit for R gains new capabilities for parallel processing and distributed computing using mirai.

tidyverse.org/blog/2025/07...

Article abstract reads: Nature protected areas are hailed as an institutional solution to the global biodi-versity crisis. However, conservation entails local economic costs for some com-munities and benefits for others. We propose that the establishment of protectedareas in Africa follows an ethno-political logic which implies that governmentsdistribute protected areas such that their ethnic constituencies are shielded fromtheir costs but enjoy their benefits. We test this argument using continent-widedata on ethnic groups’ power status and protected area establishment since inde-pendence. Difference-in-differences models show that political inclusion decreasesnature protection in groups’ settlement areas. However, this effect is reversed forprotected areas that plausibly generate tourism income. We also find that ethno-political inclusion is linked to legal degradation of protected areas. Our find-ings support long-voiced concerns by activists that politically marginalized groupscarry disproportional costs of conservation. This has implications, given the likelyexpansion of protected areas the decades to come.

🚨New publication alert! 🚨

Our article “The Ethnic Politics of Nature Protection in Africa” is now out in @thejop.bsky.social 🎉-- fantastic collaboration with Stephen Dawson, @carlmc.bsky.social & Aksel Sundström

Article: doi.org/10.1086/739777

Short summary thread below 👇

A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published.

Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.

osf.io/rn6h3/files/...

Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024, APSR).

I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.

Workplace exposure to artificial intelligence is higher among U.S. workers with higher wages, depending on how AI is used A look at the continuing impacts of artificial intelligence on the U.S. labor market and avenues for future exploration.

equitablegrowth.org/workplace-ex...

osf.io/preprints/os...

The most likely AI apocalypse How artificial intelligence could be leading most humans into an inescapable trap.

www.vox.com/the-highligh...

Rental Market Risk and Radical Right Support - Tarik Abou-Chadi, Denis Cohen, Thomas Kurer, 2025 A growing literature examines how economic threat affects support for anti-establishment parties. While most existing work focuses on transforming labor markets...

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

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Read this.

Zitat aus unserem neuesten Blogpost von Anna-Sophie Heinze: „Statt einer ideologischen Mäßigung scheint es der neuen Jugendorganisation – wie auch ihrer Mutterpartei – vor allem um eine organisatorische Professionalisierung zu gehen.“

Am Wochenende will sich in Gießen die neue Jugendorganisation der AfD gründen – begleitet von großen Gegendemonstrationen.

Ideologisch wie auch personell zeigen sich Kontinuitäten zu der Jungen Alternativen, analysiert ANNA-SOPHIE HEINZE (@asheinze.bsky.social).

verfassungsblog.de/afd-jugendor...

(8) Ben Ansell examines the political feasibility of wealth and inheritance taxes as potential funding sources for progressive housing and social policies. Inheritance taxes are particularly unpopular, but wealth taxes with credible promises to spend revenues on public investments can be popular.

(1) Martin Vinæs Larsen traces the dramatic decline of social housing across Europe over the past four decades and analyzes the political barriers to its revival. He identifies four major obstacles to reviving social housing and argues for strategies with a broader appeal.

With the Progressive Politics Research Network, we have published 8 new research briefs on the politics of housing. What does a progressive agenda on housing look like? Which elements are important? What the hurdles are and how can they be overcome?
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/progressive-...

Sometimes the pessimism of the intellect erodes the optimism of the will, as @adamprz.bsky.social says

Sometimes the pessimism of the intellect erodes the optimism of the will, as @adamprz.bsky.social says

Thank you!

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Warum der Rechtspopulismus gekommen ist um zu bleiben:

Thank you!

willingness to sanction cooperation with RWP.
Avoiding accommodation is also tricky in the presence of intra-party divisions on the cultural dimension. The faction more closely aligned with the radical right usually has an incentive to break rank publicly and use RWP's popularity to pressure

the party leadership to move closer to its ideal point. What, if anything, is wrong with this argument? In what way are the scope conditions under-specified? What are your favourite examples of mainstream parties successfully fighting right-wing populists? Why are you more optimistic?

Embracing the Enemy Two agents repeatedly compete for the power to set policy. A principal partially influences the power allocation. All three players may disagree on policy, but one agent (the ``friend'') aligns more c...

Defection changes expectations, lowers reputational costs, and normalises cooperation. Re-establishing the firewall is exceedingly difficult (see also this paper by
Delgado-Vega and Schneider). There are also good reasons to be sceptical about voters' ability and
arxiv.org/abs/2406.09734

form of a cordon sanitaire or a commitment not to engage in accommodation, is extremely fragile. Under some conditions, the cordon sanitaire is collectively rational; but it's also individually costly for mainstream parties, or factions within them. Once one actor defects, the norm collapses.

control of mainstream actors (see the paper by @grattonecon.bsky.social and @bartonelee2.bsky.social). Social media and fragmented news environments diminish gatekeeping and reduce the cost of entry of outsiders. These forces imply that mainstream parties operate
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...