Katie Marriner

Our final polling averages in Texas show a very close race on the Democratic side, and a likely runoff on the Republican side.

ICYMI, our analysis of these races, and primary polling in general, from last week: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Americans want AI for work, but oppose data centers near home And an update on our polling averages in the Texas Senate race.

Just published the first issue of our weekly polling data roundup.
Polls show people think AI tools will help them at work, but don't want infrastructure like data centers built near their homes.
+ why people hate Congress, and new TX primary averages
blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...

Announcing new data features and editorial content at FiftyPlusOne Paying subscribers can now access full interactive data tables and a redesigned website at fiftyplusone.news

Poll lovers! Big news over at FiftyPlusOne. Today, we're rolling out brand new features AND editorial content. Subscribers will get access to complete tables of polls (not just the 5 most recent polls), as well as weekly polling roundups and articles. Our blog: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/launches-e...

Excited to carry on the Trump Score name with @VoteHub! I gathered Trump's positions on 282 floor votes in 2025 to calculate how often each member of Congress agreed with the president, and dug into what issues and dynamics have dominated floor action in Trump's second term. 🧵

FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

Poll fans! We've been hard at work making aesthetics updates & adding new data downloads to the site. Premium API subscribers can now download daily averages for presidential approval and the House generic ballot, both of which update in real time as we add polls to our database.

It's made with @svelte.dev which is the reason it's so ~speedy~ 🙏 I'll write a post on how we built this at a later date.

Hi, I've been working on a lil' something.

The State of the American Housing Market has been updated with May data!

Inventory rose 31.5% compared to last May. Notably, this is the first month since December 2019 where the number of active listings surpassed 1 million. The median list price remained steady from a year ago at $440,000.

New features have been added as well!
1. The ability to compare counties with a similar number of households directly on county pages.
2. Seeing detailed monthly data values by hovering over the bars in charts.

The State of the American Housing Market has been updated with May data!

Inventory rose 31.5% compared to last May. Notably, this is the first month since December 2019 where the number of active listings surpassed 1 million. The median list price remained steady from a year ago at $440,000.

A bar chart spanning three slides showing the total value of foreign gifts given to U.S. presidents between 2001 and 2023. Barack Obama received the largest total value in gifts, at $2.0m, followed by George W. Bush, $1.1m. The possible gift of a $400m Qatari plane is shown as an incredibly long bar that wraps back and forth across the page. If it were accepted, it would dwarf all the other gifts by far.

A continuation of the previous image

A continuation of the previous image

Chart of the day from the incomparable @erindataviz.bsky.social @axios.com

The data I'm using form Realtor(dot)com goes back to July 2016 at the county level, so there is a bit more I can show. It would be interesting to get more pre-pandemic data in there.

Thanks for asking! Pink/red is meant to identify "negative" outcomes for homebuyers like higher prices or fewer homes on the market. Green means lower prices or more inventory. I can add an explanation about that since it is a little confusing being the opposite for those two metrics.

Take the Quiz: Meet Your Mayor 2025 Candidates for NYC mayor told us where they stand on issues. Which is the top match for you? Find out before heading to the polls.

Meet Your Mayor 2025 is here! Take @thecity.nyc's quiz on issues and leadership to which candidates are your best match. Quite possibly not who you think. projects.thecity.nyc/meet-your-ma...

Thanks! More to come with it. I’m glad it’s helpful

538’s former top numbers guy to launch data journalism site G. Elliott Morris, the data journalist who took over 538 in 2023, is launching Strength In Numbers, a paid Substack.

Good idea. Even in this environment it was shortsighted of ABC to completely shutter 538. www.semafor.com/article/05/1...

GitHub - katiemarriner/the-state-of-housing: The State of Housing in America: How do median prices and inventory compare in your county? The State of Housing in America: How do median prices and inventory compare in your county? - katiemarriner/the-state-of-housing

It’s a work in progress, so I’d love any feedback on what’s helpful, what’s missing, or any bugs you find. Reach out here or contribute.

America's housing market looks different depending on where you live, so I made a tool that tracks home price and inventory trends at the county level. Data from @rdcnews.bsky.social

🔗 katiemarriner.com/the-state-of...

Building a new home for data-driven political journalism Independent, reader-funded media is the best way to safeguard unbiased, data-driven analysis for the public good. Become a member and support the mission.

Some news! Today, I launch Strength In Numbers as an independent, data-driven news website devoted to rigorous and transparent political analysis.

On Wednesday we'll have our first poll, with a high-quality, non-partisan sponsor.

Please share, and join us: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/building-a...

Live updates: Trump's approval hits new low after "Liberation Day" tariffs His average economic approval also hits a new low (-13), and his tariffs are underwater by 30 points

Polls conducted after Trump's new tariffs are just brutal for him:

- Net approval rating hits a new low of -4
- Disapproval over 50% for the first time in his second term
- Econ approval at -15
- Tariffs underwater by 30

Will be updating this post with more: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-appr...

Several big 538 projects have made on the long-list for the 2024 Information is Beautiful awards. A big honor for a small group of journalists. Congrats to the team ❤️ www.informationisbeautifulawards.com/showcase?act...

ABC News has now fully taken down the old 538 website, including all interactive projects since 2014. Aside from erasing history this prevents access to publicly released data, including raw polls, averages, model estimates & story dta. Totally unacceptable for a company (allegedly) doing journalism

Just a reminder that all the data FiveThirtyEight collected—polls, election results, and much more—is available for download (for now) on our GitHub page. github.com/fivethirtyei...

Opinion | FiveThirtyEight is gone. Its legacy will endure. Nate Silver’s website suffered because of Trump and changes in political news coverage.

@perrybaconjr.bsky.social gets FiveThirtyEight exactly right here. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Thanks, Francine!! You’re the best

Thanks, Nathaniel! It couldn’t have happened without a great project manager like you.

Along with the rest of the staff, I was laid off from 538 today. I am incredibly proud of the work we did there and honored to have learned so much from such talented journalists.

As reported, the entire staff of 538 was laid off this morning. This is a severe blow to political data journalism, and I feel for my colleagues. Readers note: As we were instructed not to publish any new content, all planned updates to polls data and averages are canceled indefinitely. Huge loss :(

I remember sitting in J-School as a senior when a group of us were in front of computers, refreshing the browser, waiting for the brand new FiveThirtyEight site to launch in 2014. It was then that working there became a dream of mine, and I'm grateful for the year I had to live out that dream.

I can say firsthand that any newsroom or organization would be lucky to hire one of my colleagues.