Tim Gushue

Something I hope everyone with a 401k reading this learns: being a bag holder for 13 years and 4 months is totally fine. Seriously. It's not a problem. Your most powerful source of returns as an individual investors is patience and just not worrying about being in a drawdown for a while.

Goldman looks at how the economy is relying upon the rich continuing to spend money — and how the rich are relying upon stocks continue to rise.

“The $ value of ALL call options - put options spiked to a new all-time high. This is concerning for stocks from a long term Risk/Reward perspective.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/764 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

The U.S. has three options for the housing market to return to 2019 levels:

1. Home prices need to drop -40%
2. Incomes need to increase +60%
3. Interest rates need to drop to 2%

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market

Home Sellers outnumber Buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded 👀

metric trolling

Reddit post by u/Unimatrix617: This wear pattern on my work laptop after 3 years Many—but not all—of the letter keys are worn out

Histogram of English letter frequency. Many—but not all—of the letters are frequently used

Love to see data in the real world

The shocking numbers announced on #LiberationDay have already retreated but the #effective #tariff rate on US imports still sits at its highest level since the 1940s, chart #JPMorganAM

When asked which country is the most important ally to their own, many people around the world name the United States. This is the most common response in 12 of the 24 non-U.S. countries included in a new Pew Research Center survey. It is tied for the top response in three additional countries. But others say the U.S. is their nation’s greatest threat. This is the most common response in six countries and tied for top in two others. In neighboring Canada and Mexico, as well as in Argentina, Brazil and Kenya, the U.S. is the top response on both the ally and threat questions.

Most people in Mexico and Canada say the United States is their country's greatest threat
www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...

Really useful page from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics on job openings by industry over time.

New from @jessrem.bsky.social, an interesting break down on the types of places that are accommodating the most new housing: open.substack.com/pub/agglomer...

While outer ring suburbs are accommodating the most new housing, downtowns are growing a lot faster than inner ring suburbs.

After a brief recovery, US economic data surprises have turned sharply negative, contrasting sharply with the euro area:

How economics has changed

Daily close chart of GBPUSD 1y risk reversal since 2003. A risk reversal is an options trade where the investor is long a call and short a put. The chart shows the spread between call-implied volatility and put-implied volatility, such that higher readings imply investors willing to pay more for upside exposure to the underlying while low readings imply investors willing to pay more for downside exposure to the underlying. Both call and put are struck to the same delta in this instance (25), meaning that both options have the same exposure to the underlying. The chart implies the options market is the most bullish towards GBP relative to USD in over 15 years.

Please refer to explanation in the prior chart. Same idea, but for EURUSD instead of GBPUSD.

Please see explanation in first chart. This is the same idea but for USDCAD. Because we're quoting USDCAD instead of CADUSD (the reason is market convention), the readings are reversed. This chart also shows long-term USDCAD options the most bearish on USD since 2009.

GBP, EUR*, and CAD long-term skew versus dollar all hitting new highs. Options markets increasingly bearish USD.

If you have any questions about this READ THE ALT TEXT FIRST PLEASE then feel free to fire away.

*we're going to ignore the 3/9/20 print IMO

Now that we can see data past Easter, it appears international travel to the United States this spring has largely held up, despite reports about extraordinary declines. But there are ominous signs ahead. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

a graph of real GDP for Italy

Didn't realize this until just now but Italy has finally, after SEVENTEEN YEARS, exceeded its pre-Great-Recession GDP levels

Welcome to Brexitland, US, in which waywardness is described as "strategic uncertainty", restrictions on trade boost performance and self harm is lauded....

Spoiler, it does not end happily

www.ft.com/content/342d...

The key chart right now:

Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers.

This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.

“America would be better off if more people worked in manufacturing.” • 80% of Americans agree • 20% disagree “I would be better off if I worked in a factory.” • 25% of Americans agree • 73% disagree • 2% currently work in a factory

How do you do the sear at the end?

Here’s what’s a stake when we pile on the debt: In 2024, the US spent more servicing the debt than on our military.

My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

A photo of a bunch of Nike shoes.

How much do you think it costs to make a pair of Nike shoes in Asia?

Before you open this thread, take a guess. Settle on a number and then compare it to what you'll learn in this thread. 🧵

Interesting* that the share of goods exports in US GDP has remained fairly stable for more than two centuries. Imports have been far more volatile, exploding after Bretton Woods system of capital controls collapsed—long before the ‘China shock’ hit—and only shrinking slightly in the post-GFC era:

There are people on my timeline posting charts with a line going sharply down and saying it's bad, and other people posting other charts with a line going sharply up and saying it's bad, and that's everything I know about money.

A tweet from Mr. Beast that reads “Ironically because of all the new tariffs it is now way cheaper to make our chocolate bars we sell globally not in America because other countries don’t have a 20% tariff on our cogs”

A graph of major raw foods hit by trumps April 2nd tariff increases

Great example from Mr. Beast of how insane it was for Trump to hit raw food with tariffs

Ingredients that grow abroad are getting more expensive—a Feastables bar has sugar (hit by a 10% tariff), chocolate (6-15%), cocoa butter (21%), & vanilla (41%)—and those tariffs also hit coffee, fish, etc

Mortgage debt as a % of personal spending has been declining for 16 years straight and is back to early 1990’s levels. We can definitely have a recession over the next 12-24 months but this is the one big chart that things its severity would be limited:

US maps showing a few tiny cities in orange and everywhere else in blue

America’s GDP divided in half, via Amazing Maps.

#household #savings US versus #euro area, chart @NordeaMarkets

#commodities
#consumers might be wondering to what extent a big rally in #coffee prices will filter through the #cafes and supermarkets, chart @markets
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...