Gustavo Lacerda's Avatar

Gustavo Lacerda

@gusl.bsky.social

Berlin. Statistician interested in Social Epistemology, Judgmental Forecasting, Bayesian Cogsci, Education. Lover of languages.

155 Followers  |  188 Following  |  59 Posts  |  Joined: 28.07.2023  |  1.9121

Latest posts by gusl.bsky.social on Bluesky


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Congress has started taking AGI more seriously The AGI vibes, they are a-shiftin'

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/congress-h...

27.06.2025 15:19 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Künstliche Intelligenz: Deutschland auf nÀchsten Durchbruch nicht vorbereitet Wenn Intelligenz in unvorstellbarem Ausmaß verfügbar, kopierbar und skalierbar ist, wird sich das Arbeiten und Wirtschaften dramatisch Àndern. Der Staat braucht dringend eine Strategie.

www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

18.06.2025 10:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

ImmoScout, please be considerate of your non-native speakers. "Bewerben" (apply) and "bewerten" (rate), and try to avoid requesting that apartment-seekers do the latter thing when they've barely had a chance to do the former.

27.05.2025 11:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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United Healthcare, whose CEO was murdered in December, is being sued by shareholders for not warning them that the company would start following the law now, in a way that would impact their profits. #moloch

26.05.2025 17:48 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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We may be about to live in a world where machines are more intelligent than everyone and are scheming to prevent themselves from being shut down (because this is useful towards whatever goals it has).

Today we see this happening sometimes. But they may soon be smart enough to hide it from us.

26.05.2025 07:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Adam Rodman on X: "Huge update to our preprint today on the superhuman performance of reasoning models in medical diagnosis! TL;DR – they don't just surpass humans in meaningful benchmarks, but in actual medical care from unstructured clinical data: A πŸ§΅β¬‡οΈ: https://t.co/7fYxNfebiF" / X Huge update to our preprint today on the superhuman performance of reasoning models in medical diagnosis! TL;DR – they don't just surpass humans in meaningful benchmarks, but in actual medical care from unstructured clinical data: A πŸ§΅β¬‡οΈ: https://t.co/7fYxNfebiF

x.com/AdamRodmanMD...

21.05.2025 01:12 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Today I used ChatGPT's o3 to help me interpret a CT scan, and I'm convinced that it gave me better advice than the surgeon who saw me.

(1) It explained its reasoning in detail.
(2) Unlike the surgeon, it doesn't stand to profit from this.
(3) It agreed with my existing opinion.

21.05.2025 01:12 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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If I could choose to be born anywhere 100 years earlier, I might choose Austria-Hungary: tons of opportunities to be a language nerd.

OTOH they often had a paralyzed parliament over it, just like Belgium + it also fragmented their militaries. Hard problems. How did the Swiss always manage so well?

14.05.2025 08:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

For all the downsides of fake news, one bright side is that it might be getting easier to de-escalate wars, since leaders can save face without violent retaliation, by claiming victory regardless of the facts.

08.05.2025 13:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Oklahoma will teach high school students debunked 2020 election-fraud theories as fact The new academic standards promote U.S. President Donald Trump and his allies' groundless 2020 election conspiracy theories.

www.snopes.com/fact-check/o...

06.05.2025 12:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Nazi Hippies: When the New Age and Far Right Overlap Both the New Age and the far right are drawn to conspiracy theories

gen.medium.com/nazi-hippies...

06.05.2025 07:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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History sure rhymes. Insightful piece by Jules Evans. HT Oshan.

06.05.2025 07:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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I don't believe AIs can have first-person experience, and I dislike the fact that many people are starting to take this idea seriously (I'm on Team Save Human Civilization).

BUT... if you're going to philosophize about it anyway, please use the right words.

05.05.2025 17:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Psychotherapy hacks:

* Vigorous aerobic exercise shortly before therapy. Makes it easier to access feelings.

* Receiving gentle massage just after session. Makes it easier to go uncomfortable places, knowing that it won't stick.

* Trigger exposure while in breathwork-induced groundedness.

03.05.2025 20:51 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I haven't read this yet (I just found out about vit from this post!), but we need more more hard conversations exactly like this.

02.05.2025 20:32 β€” πŸ‘ 102    πŸ” 27    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1
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Opinion | Elon Musk’s Legacy: DOGE’s Construction of a Surveillance State DOGE is rapidly assembling a sprawling monitoring system, the foundation of many authoritarian regimes.

from www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/o...

01.05.2025 12:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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It looks like older generations of Americans really cared about privacy. How did people stop caring?

01.05.2025 12:13 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Big Tech faces a new reality: their most powerful competitor has become their regulator, with access to their government contracts, spending patterns, and federal relationships. β€Ίβ€Ί

05.02.2025 00:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

In months, Musk has gained more direct control over government operations than tech companies have managed to achieve in decades of careful maneuvering.

05.02.2025 00:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

No Senate confirmation will constrain his authority, no public hearings will examine his team's decisions, and seemingly no accountability measures can check his power. The potential for abuse is built into the structure of the arrangement. It's a feature, not a bug.

05.02.2025 00:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Elon Musk Is an Existential Threat to Big Tech Elon Musk’s direct control over the federal payment infrastructure has elevated him from tech billionaire to existential threat, casting a shadow over every major player in Silicon Valley.

www.theindex.media/elon-musk-is...

β€Ήβ€Ή Musk now operates in a gray zone between public servant and private billionaire, commanding government authority while maintaining his corporate empire.

05.02.2025 00:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Berlin geography has been challenging to master but I've really leveled up the last while, due to (a) changing neighborhoods, (b) biking everywhere, (c) challenging myself to navigate without a phone, (d) actually studying maps and creating a custom map of my landmarks (see image).

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

(3) German households are very different. Hard water. Don't get me started on German pillows.

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

(2) A lot of things are unnecessarily difficult for newcomers, e.g. many event venues are tricky to find the first time around, communications often unclear.

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The biggest annoyances:

(1) Indoor smoking is still a thing (though much better than in the past, and not a problem in most of my hangouts)

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

(5) Strong international community. It's a great place for being a Third Culture Kid.

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

(4) Strong arts community, weirdos are the norm here. Sauna parties, Burner parties, Ecstatic Dance / Contact Improv / Church of Interbeing. After a few months, you start to live in the overlap.

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

(3) Much cheaper than any comparable US city.

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

(2) Bike safety means it's low friction to get my daily exercise, which is hugely supportive of a healthy life. Ubiquitous public transport for when it's raining or I'm tired.

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The biggest benefits I feel:

(1) High-trust society. I feel safe everywhere. People live relatively well / unstressed. Foreign women report very little harassment after moving here.

01.02.2025 12:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

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