Michael Albertus

What Happens Next in Iran and the Middle East How the war could seed conflict and instability across the region and a power vacuum in Iran

What's next in Iran and the Middle East? Research on international & civil war and on regime change shows how the war could seed conflict and instability across the region and a power vacuum in #Iran itself. My latest post 👇

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/the-war-in...

When State-Building Disrupts Rather Than Stabilizes: French Rebellion in the Run-Up to the Revolution by Mike Albertus and Victor Gay

The emergence and spread of nation-states is one of the most consequential developments in history. But most states still struggle to centralize control, driving violence. My latest post, based on my article with @victorgayeco.bsky.social @apsrjournal.bsky.social

www.broadstreet.blog/cp/188144764

Trump's New Board of Peace What began with rebuilding Gaza from scratch could rewire global cooperation

Excited to share that my newsletter – The Good Society – has surpassed 1,000 subscribers! My latest post on Trump's new Board of Peace, which will erase and transform #Gaza and could refashion international relations as he seeks to replace the UN 👇

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/trumps-new...

Research on Protests and Repression Foretold the Violence in Minneapolis Excessive federal force, widespread images and videos of ICE abuse, and indiscriminate and mistaken targeting are driving a repetitive repression/backlash cycle

Research shows that repression sometimes backfires, driving spiraling cycles of protest and violence. Excessive federal force, widespread images and videos of ICE abuse, and indiscriminate and mistaken targeting are doing just that in #Minneapolis. 👇

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/research-o...

How Trump turned international relations into a real-estate game With his Greenland obsession, the US president is reviving a national tradition: expansion via land grabs

Great article @financialtimes.com on American land grabs, which shares my conversation with @simonkuper.bsky.social on the power and unceasing allure of land

www.ft.com/content/d59c...

As ICE Turns Minneapolis Into a Battle Ground, Even More is At Stake More than just part of a supercharged deportation campaign, Minneapolis is a legal and social testing ground for the Trump administration

#Minneapolis is more than just part of a supercharged deportation campaign: it's a legal and social testing ground for the Trump administration. My latest post 👇

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/the-explos...

Who's Next After Venezuela? Iran and Cuba are on the Trump administration's hit list. Greenland and Colombia are on its wish list.

After the US intervention in Venezuela, Trump's threats to other countries have accelerated. Who's next on the hit list? My latest post 👇

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/whos-next-...

An explainer on the US intervention in Venezuela: what's happening, how the US could "run" it, and what could happen next. Top questions that journalists have asked me about the situation, and my answers

The Venezuelan Opposition Has a Choice As bad as things look, the country’s democratic forces broke through a similar jam in 1958.

The opposition in #Venezuela has a choice: It could take Trump's snub and lie low, waiting for another inflection point—or return to protests and organizing in hopes of backing Trump or Rodríguez into a corner and forcing elections. My piece at @theatlantic.com

www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

When State-Building Disrupts Rather Than Stabilizes: French Rebellion in the Run-Up to the Revolution by Mike Albertus and Victor Gay

Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing state-building from state strength. Greater state capacity may stabilize society, but the building process itself can disrupt local social structures and be contested for decades.

👉Broadstreet post: www.broadstreet.blog/p/when-state...

We find that new horse-post relays caused more local rebellions in subsequent decades. This was due to the material consequences of state penetration, as the horse post spurred rebellions against agents with coercive powers to enforce order: the military, the police, and the judiciary.

We use a staggered DiD design at the parish level that compares changes in rebellion in parishes that received a horse-post relay to nearby parishes that would later receive one. We argue that the local configuration of relays between regional nodes was plausibly exogenous.

We test this hypothesis by combining archival data on the horse-post relay network over the eighteenth century from the Liste des Postes and a database of 6,000 rebellions in pre-Revolutionary France from the Jean Nicolas survey.
👉 On the JN survey : doi.org/10.46298/dc....

This system was central to the monarchy’s infrastructural capacity, strengthening its ability to penetrate society—enforce taxes, the rule of law, and conscription. It also crowded out private interests and activities, potentially generating resentment and resistance.

The monarchy’s communication network was the horse-post: a series of relays every 10–15km where state messengers could lodge & get fresh horses for faster travel. On these roads, the state held a monopoly over the gallop, horse rentals, and night travel. It expanded throughout the 18th century

Can state-building disrupt rather than stabilize society? In a new @apsrjournal.bsky.social article, @victorgayeco.bsky.social and I show that the expansion of state communication networks spurred rebellion for decades in France before the Revolution

👉 Article: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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What Democracy in Venezuela Would Require Toppling a dictatorship is easier than building a functional state to take its place.

The US capture of Nicolás Maduro is a historic turn that repositions the US as openly interventionist in Latin America. But rebuilding Venezuela will be a far harder task. My piece at @theatlantic.com

www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Publication brought lots of unexpected surprises: reviews in places like @thenewyorker.bsky.social & @wsj.com, podcasts, and plenty of rich conversations on everything from US land grabbing in Greenland to the housing crisis & property rights on the moon. Here's to a 2026 that measures up!

As 2025 clocks out, my biggest professional thrill this year was my new book Land Power! 🥳🎉 It tells how land became power, how it shapes power, and how who holds that power determines the fundamental social problems that societies grapple with. 🧵 @basicbooksgroup.bsky.social

Land Displacement & the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians Land Displacement & the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians page for UNSUNG HISTORY

#3: Land Displacement & the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians with @mikealbertus.bsky.social

A brief year in review from The Good Society, the newsletter I started this year!

t.co/ScPMbkvFy1

Unfrozen: The Fight for the Future of the Arctic An interview with RAND Europe geopolitical analyst Klaus Dodds on his new book on the thawing Arctic and what that means for global politics

The Arctic is ground zero for the colliding threats of climate change and geopolitical competition between the US, Russia, China, and EU countries. My interview with @klausdodds.bsky.social on his new book Unfrozen

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/unfrozen-t...

My conversation with Princeton Professor Rory Truex on the American confrontation with Venezuela: where it's coming from and where it could be headed

What Chile’s New President Means for the World José Kast’s right-wing agenda has implications far beyond Chile’s borders.

Chile's blowout election of Kast gives momentum to right-wing political movements that focus on hard-line immigration and security policy and will further build a growing club of countries turning away from mainstream politics. My op-ed @foreignpolicy.com

foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/15/c...

The FTC Case Is an Executive Power Grab A likely Trump administration win in the case will steal power from Congress and have big implications for civil servants throughout government

If the executive wins authority to intervene in independent agencies like the #FTC simply for partisan reasons, why won't the same logic apply to other government entities and to the civil service more broadly? My post on this power grab & why it matters

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/the-ftc-ca...

Rural Versus Urban: The Growing Divide That Threatens Democracy My interview with Cornell Professor Suzanne Mettler and Johns Hopkins Fellow Trevor Brown on their new book on America's growing rural-urban split

The recent but growing rural-urban divide in the US is a threat to democracy. My interview with
@cornelluniversity.bsky.social Professor Suzanne Mettler and
Johns Hopkins postdoc Trevor Brown on how it arose and what can be done
@smettler.bsky.social

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/rural-vers...

Plotting out the Endgame in Venezuela Gauging likely scenarios amid the building American threats to Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro

With the American military buildup in #Venezuela, what is the endgame? Plotting out the most likely scenarios in my latest post.

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/plotting-o...

Wealthy Democracies With a History of Fair Elections Never Fail – Or Do They? My interview with NYU Politics Professor and leading scholar Adam Przeworski on a career's worth of insight on what makes democracy thrive or fail

Wealthy democracies with a history of fair elections never fail–or do they? My interview w/ @newyorkuniversity.bsky.social Professor Adam Przeworski on a career's worth of insight on what makes democracy thrive, and why he's so puzzled now about the US

michaelalbertus.substack.com/p/wealthy-de...

Maduro Needs a Golden Parachute The only way to avoid war in Venezuela may be if its leader doesn’t fear leaving office.

The Maduro regime is not in a position to design, or even participate in, an institutional framework that could guide Venezuela back to democracy. With no golden parachute in sight, he's digging in. My piece @foreignpolicy.com on off-ramps from dictatorship

foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/19/m...