Rahul Sharma

In fairness Vandy it has also more than halved from peak. But still lots of questions not least where does growth ultimately come from once some margin is recovered.

In terms of broader read on US consumer (& yes this is still in rear view mirror given recent events), Target points to acceleration in Dec-Jan & outright positive comp for first time in over a year in February (although comparisons are much easier) $TGT $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF 🤞

Target market share woes run deep. Comp weak -2.5% & web only +2% vs +10% at $AMZN & +28% at $WMT. That said, also no worse than expected & steady on 4-year stack. Inventory at 59 days ok. Not great but also no worse than expectations. $XLF $XLY

Here we go again. Arhaus CEO cites how happy he is with desirability/success of $ARHS offer at high-end & at the same time, CFO says in response to snowstorms, they pulled promo trigger yet again. Oh & wrote off a ton of failed product 🤷‍♂️ $RH $WSM

Even in home improvement, while Lowes went out of way to sound dour, details of Q told a different story. When sell-sider pointed out Jan strength & Dec-Jan 2-year stack acceleration, $LOW CFO said he's 'very pleased' & expects consistent Q1. 🤷‍♂️ $HD $XLY $XLF $TJX

Upbeat comments from $TJX about strength across income cohorts & Urban citing macros as a strength = US consumers still in a good place. Home improvement sluggishness still down to shifts in spend rather than overall caution. $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN $AXP $V $MA

SRS/GMS deals + slippage on retail metrics hurting Depot cash flow. At $3.3 billion, Q4 operating cashflow lowest in 13 Qs. As a result, even as $HD hasn't bought back stock for nearly 2 years, net debt flat at $54 billion+. Still some way to deleverage & buyback resumption $LOW

DIY remains retail laggard but no surprises at Depot. Comp flattish QoQ but 3-year stack accelerated 180bp on traffic. Expenses much > sales & inventory at 86 days, +20% vs 2019. SRS/GMS impact but recent Qs blemish $HD stellar track record on retail metrics. $LOW $XLF $XLY

Apparently this is a kids clothing label. Values appropriate for current era 🙄

Walmart on US consumer: 'resilient', strongest spend at households with income > $100K but some (if deliberately toned down) constructive comments even on those under $50K. No change in macros/ consumer behaviour to increase $WMT caution 🔥 $XLY $XLF $AMZN

Despite subdued sentiment on luxury, Moncler latest to see sharp Q4 improvement, with US & Asia (similar to peers) accelerating 700-800bp acceleration vs 9M25. Aspirational brands showing strong mo-mo while top end remains strong. $CFRUY $BURBY $HESAY $RL $TPR $EL $LVMUY

Plenty of life in Airbnb brand. In Q4, $ABNB growth surpassed Booking alternative accom despite larger base. Even adjusted for experiences, clearly $ABNB accelerating even as $BKNG decelerates here. Both highlight travel resilience. $XLY $XLF $AXP $DAL $UAL $MAR

Sales guide, divi, buybacks point to below-street earnings guide = new CEO setting low bar. But even with acceleration & rising share gains, $WMT only delivered 5% sales/profit growth in 2025. This is more about investors putting $WMT into $COST club. Now dearer than $AMZN.

Walmart benefiting from new income streams not only on margin. Inventory days at 40, below past 10 years barring shortage-induced 2020. Not quite negative working capital like $AMZN but $WMT is rare US retailer with payables > inventory. 💪 $TGT $XRT $XLY

yes post-multiple expansion rationalisation! Just worth remembering it grew earnings for year 5%!

Walmart US transformation remarkable. Web hit record 22.9% of total, up 410bp on last year and vs only 9% in 2019. Mimicking $AMZN, advertising +37% on top of +29% last year, key reason why US margin is expanding. $WMT $TGT $XLF $XLY

Plenty to like at Walmart US. Traffic accelerated to 2.6%, though all online as stores were negative. Web +27%, off much lower base but still almost 3X $AMZN pace. Growth across categories & margin up. Inflation in non-food creeping up on tariffs. $WMT $XLF $XLY

US food dominoes keep falling. Mills cutting guide on heels of KraftHeinz while taking up its sustainable growth plans. ☠️ $KHC $GIS $CPB $CAG $PEP $KO $XLP

Hermes on two biggest markets: In China, signs of improvement though aspirational cohort still weak. US seeing very broad strength and no change in trend. Ties in with strong $AXP luxury spend & in contrast to LVMH caution Brands matter! $HESAY $CFRUY $LVMUY $PPRUY $RL $TPR

Yes Hermes is exceptional but here $HESAY pushes back on street view that middle income is too stretched to buy luxury, especially outside France. Evidenced also by 🔥 at Polo, Coach etc. Plus wealth creation in EMs big driver too. $CFRUY $LVMUY $TPR $RL $ZGN $XLY

Strength at Airbnb as retail lodging platform vs hotels another pointer to how solid US consumer is. And $ABNB gracious enough to admit strength is partly macro. $MAR $HLT $DAL $UAL $BKNG $CCL $AXP $XLY $XLF

For all the share gains in the world, a business of McDonalds scale doesn't hit 7% comp if consumer is swooning. Chimes with $BAC & $V citing spend growth even in lower income cohorts. And way fewer mentions by $MCD on call of stressed low end vs 3 months ago. $XLF $XLY

This is the payoff from having a luxury leather franchise with carefully managed brand equity & demand. Hermes sells mostly to locals rather than tourists & $HESAY results come despite biggest exposure to (of late weak) China vs peers. 🔥 $CFRUY $LVMUY $RACE

Amid improving backdrop, Hermes & Richemont show top tier luxury in class of its own. $HESAY has now grown 10%+ in every fourth quarter since 2017. China better, US strong. On broader sector readthru, accessible areas like silk & RTW improving. $CFRUY $LVMUY $PPRUY $BURBY $EL

Incidentally after early hiccup, results from wide swathe of staples (Pepsi, Coke, Unilever, Bud etc) suggest after hiccup in early 25, Lat Am has reverted to being treasure island. Most back to pricing well above inflation while decrying macros. $XLP $KO $PEP $UL $BUD $PM

Unilever out-performing P&G by wide margin (4 points) & with +4% point forward sales guide despite being widely considered far inferior. Not just greater EM exposure - $UL doing far better in US. $PG legacy of aggressive premium-isation likely hurting. $CL $LRLCY $XLP

Yet if you believed media narrative, gap between high & low end should be 10 points.

Hard to stress how awful Kraft-Heinz is. Trifecta of bad sales, margin & outlook with no end in sight. US foods have no answer to GLPs & troubled brand equity, just seem to be hurting to oblivion. Much maligned $PEP looks like a superstar in comparison. $KHC $GIS $CPB $XLP $KO

Marriott saw strong Q4 leisure demand offset slower corporate travel. $MAR now sees slower corporate recovery to 2019 levels offset by high-end leisure. Sees disparity between high & low end narrowing from 2025 levels. $HLT $ABNB $DAL $UAL $AXP $V $MA $XLF $XLY

Wells echoes Bank of America on solid US consumer, saying credit quality looks very good as well. Commercial fine but as usual corporate confidence (and low appetite for loans) is the sluggish driver, not the consumer $BAC $JPM $WFC $AXP $COF $XLF $XLY $XLI $V $MA