Leon Krause

Many Americans hold contradictory opinions on the same policies Our new poll finds question wording can swing opinion by 20+ points on immigration, the budget, and transgender rights. That's a problem for people who use polls to tell politicians what voters want.

Great blog post by @gelliottmorris.com which is backed by decades of academic research. How you ask a question impacts how people answer the question!

This has important consequences for how to think about puic opinion and how to treat opinion polls. Short 🧵

Etwa 30 Teilnehmende aufgestellt vor einem See für ein Gruppenfoto

Die 18. ECIB Tagung war ein voller Erfolg!
Innovative Ansätze, lebhafte Diskussionen und drei Tage, die die Bandbreite der #IB gezeigt haben. Besonders dankbar sind wir unseren Diskutant:innen, deren Input unseren Austausch so wertvoll gemacht hat.
Bis zum nächsten Mal!

Page 1 ad in Haaretz today: Settler pogroms against Palestinians in WBank are war crimes. Prime minister responsible for not stopping them. Orders to army officers to allow these actions are illegally & must be refused.
Among those signing: Former Likud justice ministers Dan Meridor & Meir Shitreet

Amerikas Hegemonie: zur Geschichte der Monroe-Doktrin Unter Donald Trump erlebt die Monroe-Doktrin ein Comeback zur Legitimation US-amerikanischer Hegemonie. Dabei hatte sie auch immer eine antiimperiale Seite.

Make Monroe Great Again?!

Nun auch online auf @faznet.bsky.social: Mein Beitrag zur zweischneidigen Geschichte der Monroe-Doktrin.

www.faz.net/aktuell/feui...

cc @fgz-risc.bsky.social @prif.org @goetheuni.bsky.social

U.S. Military Deployment in the Middle East in Anticipation of a Possible Military Operation Against Iran - 17 Feb 2026 Created by ®EGYOSINT X Abraham Lincoln CSG Gerald R. Ford CSG On Deployment Turkey Syria Iraq Egypt. Iran UAE USS Gerald R. Ford Aircraft Carrier USS WinstonS. Churchill USS Bainbridge USS Mahan Air Defense Deployement ed Kuwait Bahrain • Qatar. Saudi Arabia Yemen Oman Arabian Sea Created by BEGYOSINT Approx 160 flights by C-17A (Since 16th Jan) Djibouti Gulf of Aden (Muwaffaq Salti AB) 18x flights by C-5M (KSA, Qatar & Djibouti) 20-22x KC-135 & KC-46 Tankers +24 F-15E (Muwaffaq Salti AB) ★ Numerous Flights by C-130H/J 1x RC-135 SIGINT (Chania, Greece) 30x F-35A fighters (Muwaffaq Salti AB) 4x MC/HC-130J (2x Muwaffaq Salti AB) (2x Diego Garcia NSF) 3x EA-11A BACN (Prince Sultan AB) F-16 deployed at the UAE & KSA WC-135R Nuke Sniffer (Midenhall, UK) 2x E-3 Sentry AWACS (Midenhall, UK) 6x EA-18GA (Muwaffaq Salti AB) + USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier (Arabian Sea) USS Frank E. Petersen (Arabian Sea) USS Spruance (Arabian Sea) USS Michael Murphy (Arabian Sea) Other assets in the ME USS Roosevelt (Mediterranean Sea) USS McFaul (Persian Gulf) USS Mitscher (Persian Gulf) USS Delbert D. Black (Red Sea) Ohio-class (unknown location) THAAD At least one additional battery (KSA or Qatar) MIM-104 Patriot Multiple battaries across the region 土 +99 C-17A & C-5M flights transferring AD Battaries By @TheIntelFrog

This is somewhere between 40-50% of deployable US air power (and it’s still growing). On a scale with the Gulf Wars.

‘Don’t go to the US – not with Trump in charge’: the UK tourist with a valid visa detained by ICE for six weeks Karen Newton was in America on the trip of a lifetime when she was shackled, transported and held for weeks on end. With tourism to the US under increasing strain, she says, ‘If it can happen to me, i...

A retired British primary school administrator with a British passport and a valid visa was shackled, chained and detained for six weeks by ICE

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Quite the chart

how is everything so impossibly stupid

how not to Zeitenwende

The more time passes, the more I’m convinced that the only numbers he genuinely cares about are from US public opinion. Only if these are in large majority against what he plans, he’ll adapt. In the current political system and his administration, this makes public opinion explicitly powerful.

A bird's-eye view of a former Auschwitz II-Birkenau camp showing a wide dirt pathway flanked by parallel rows of barbed-wire fences. Groups of visitors walk along the path, surrounded by the remnants of brick structures and barracks, now reduced to foundations. Green grass contrasts with the somber history of the site, as the path leads toward a guard tower in the distance.

Auschwitz was at the end of a process. We must remember that it did not start from gas chambers.

This hatred gradually developed: from ideas, words, stereotypes & prejudice through legal exclusion, dehumanization & escalating violence... to systematic and industrial murder.

Auschwitz took time.

This was a threat of force. I don’t understand how anyone can interpret this differently.

He is 100% threatening to use force. He still might not, but a headline that accepts this as a climb-down from force is simply inaccurate. And his word means nothing anyway.

Is this the most dangerous, and unhinged, international speech by a US president ever? Demands Greenland (and Iceland). Threatens Canada. Trashes NATO. Makes fun of leaders. Disparages Europe's environmental goals.

Carney was right to call our current moment a "rupture"

2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America?

2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?

2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?

I‘m just hoping that all this Greenland saga eventually will turn out positive for the people of Greenland. I think they never had such attention on their very own interests. This might be a turning point in how the international society, and especially Denmark, will recognise them.

Bei den ganzen Maßnahmen, die Politiker:innen von Johann Wadephul über Friedrich Merz bis Julia Klöckner gegen Iran ankündigen, spricht niemand von Visa-Erleichterungen. Seit Jahren ist es für Iraner:innen fast unmöglich, ein Visum für Deutschland zu bekommen. Ah damn, das wäre ja echte Solidarität.

The United States needs military access to Greenland, which it already has, to defend the Arctic, which it already does, from Russian and Chinese ships, which aren’t actually there, and this is so important we should destroy the Western alliance to get it, do I have that right?

I think we can start preparing our posts for the moment the US takes Greenland

Massenproteste in Iran: Exilmedium zählt 12.000 Tote in Iran Recherchen zufolge hat sich seit dem 28. Dezember das größte Massaker der jüngeren iranischen Geschichte ereignet. Informationen aus dem Land sind rar.

Recherchen zufolge hat sich seit dem 28. Dezember das größte Massaker der jüngeren iranischen Geschichte ereignet. Informationen aus dem Land sind rar.

what a world we live in

The latest from YouGov (n ~ 2.2k): No one's buying this Greenland shit. Trump loses virtually everyone on the threat of force. He barely gets *half of Republicans* on "purchasing" Greenland.

today.yougov.com/topics/overv...

Horrific, disgusting, inexcusable, antisemitic

Angriffe des 7. Oktober Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit durch palästinensische bewaffnete Gruppen

Unser Bericht zum 7. Oktober dokumentiert die Verbrechen umfassend. Er belegt Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit durch die Hamas und andere bewaffnete Gruppen.
Vollumfängliche Aufarbeitung durch internationale Gerichte und Reparationen für die Opfer jetzt!

Lies den Bericht: bit.ly/4iN8E1Q

This is amazing work

Zwischen Spaltung und Stabilität: warum Polarisierung mehr als eine Krise ist Polarisierung wird in öffentlichen Diskursen häufig als Krisensymptom gedeutet – als Ausdruck gesellschaftlicher Zerrissenheit. Demgegenüber zeigt dieser Blogbeitrag, warum Konflikte für gesellschaftl...

#Polarisierung wird häufig als Krisensymptom gedeutet. Im neuen FGZ-Blogbeitrag schreiben Cosima Adams und @leonkrause.bsky.social über den Wert gesellschaftlicher Konflikte - und wieso Polarisierung erst dann gefährlich wird, wenn Kompromisse unmöglich werden. fgzrisc.hypotheses.org/6792

The survey took place in August, for context information.