Tim Bartik

Am Econ Assn speaks out about firing the #BLS Commish.

"It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as [better] data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor--not failure or bias."

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

The Friends of #BLS protest the firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

The rationale for firing her is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers.

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?

Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

I was a colleague of Erika's at CEA and can't think of a smarter, more honest person to run BLS. Which is why the president fired her.

Fed govt data is going to be a lot harder to trust going forward.

“The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemns the removal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the unfounded accusations leveled against the work of the agency…

A totally apolitical group.

files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/...

This is an attack on democracy itself.

No Democratic or Republican politician can be allowed to suppress the most basic facts that the reveal real-world effects of policy.

Facts are the only basis for accountability, and thus a firebreak against dictatorship.

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased.

#econsky

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.

No longer.

Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

🚨 New NBER working paper: "The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children"

This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/

Abstract for NBER WP 34040, “The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children”

1000 low income adults were randomly selected to receive $1000/month for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month over that same period. Many of them had children in the household. How did it affect how they parented and their kids’ outcomes? www.nber.org/papers/w34040

Why focus in on fiscal effects? In ideal world, we would focus on all economic and social benefits versus costs. But in a world where state and local governments face some serious budget constraints, we need to produce improved estimates of budget feedbacks for various policy options.

Bottom line for state of Michigan: going to universal pre-K would have gross budget costs of a little over $500 million/year. But likely short-run fiscal benefits exceed $350 million/year.

availability of universal pre-K leading to some women being more active in labor force even if they do not yet have young kids.

Key reason for large fiscal benefits in my regional model are that Jackson/Turner/Bastian find labor force participation rate effects of universal pre-K that are 3 times effects on moms with young kids. They attribute this either to universal pre-K relieving some women of informal care, or....

Universal Pre-K as Economic Stimulus: Evidence from Nine States and Large Cities in the U.S. Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

These estimates rely on great paper by @kirabojackson.bsky.social , @julia-turner.bsky.social , & @jacobbastian.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w33767 However, my inferences from their paper are based on my own regional econometric model of how shocks to labor supply affect a state's economy.

Short-Run Fiscal Effects of Expanding Michigan's Preschool Program to be Universal This policy paper provides some updated estimates of the short-run fiscal effects of expanding Michigan’s state-funded preschool program, the Great Start Readiness Program (GSRP), to encompass univers...

I have an update to my prior paper on the benefits of Michigan's pre-K program. This new paper estimates the fiscal benefits of Michigan moving from its current program to a universal program. Key finding: fiscal benefits for state cover about 2/3rds of costs. research.upjohn.org/up_policypap...

Brad also points out that post COVID local labor market was unusually hot for young workers-- this is not norm. In sum, it is not clear that AI, as of yet, is creating any special problem for college grads in their employment. The problem is instead a weak overall labor market, unlike post-COVID.

My colleague Brad Hershbein has a useful thread -- backed by data -- that argues that (1) the overall labor market has been weakening, which does tend to hurt younger workers entering the labor market; (2) but young BAs are not necessarily the ones who are worse off, if we look at employment rates.

My story. Told my way with truth and as much grace I can muster. Thank you, Tom.

Very powerful essay. I think it takes a lot of courage to say that an organization you have served loyally has stepped too far over an ethical line, and to resign. Far too many people instead will be more conformist, and just stay, while hoping that somehow this won't matter.

American Democracy Might Not Survive a War With Iran The United States is well down the road to dictatorship. Imagine what Trump would do with a state of war.

Full disclosure: Robert Kagan surprised me. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Really impressive interview. Sarah McBride is a thoughtful advocate of liberal principles. And the dialogue between Klein and McBride is great.

We started this program a couple of years ago to support more cutting-edge research on policy-relevant employment issues, with priority on issues affecting BIPOC communities.

Open to students working on their dissertation in all disciplines.
#EconSky #Sociology #PoliSky #PolicySky

Cost per job created: tulsa remote 36k; business incentives 218k, ~1/6. infographic.

Calculations from @timbartik.bsky.social show Tulsa's remote worker attraction program is six times more efficient at creating jobs than typical business incentives. Remote workers can settle anywhere with broadband, while businesses have more barriers to uprooting.
www.upjohn.org/research-hig...

"No Kings Day" protests turn out millions Our unofficial estimate is that around 4 million people attended a protest event yesterday. Anti-Trump resistance is outpacing 2017.

Based on crowd-sourced records of No Kings Day event turnout, and extrapolating for the cities where we don't have data yet, it looks like roughly 4-6 million people protested Trump across the U.S. yesterday. That's nearly 2% of the U.S. pop!

Mobilized anti-Trump resistance is exceeding 2017 levels

"Thousands of Americans". Based on reports I have seen from different cities, it is clear that the actual estimate should be "millions of Americans". Why have you made no serious attempt to estimate the size of the protests today? Isn't this newsworthy?

Why haven't you made a serious attempt to quantify the size of the protestors today? My conservative guess is that there were at least 3 million nationwide. Isn't that newsworthy?