Toby Nangle

Incredible. Kalshi is not paying out "Khamenei out of power by [date]" contracts because he died.

Being able to sum up 5.5mins of his replies in a six word précis is pretty brutal.

Could common debt make the EU stronger? With Carlos Cuerpo Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 27 February · 31m

On which @soumayakeynes.ft.com *repeatedly* presses on Spanish Ec Min Cuerpo the qn “But what would you DO?!?” as a European policymaker wishing to emulate Spain’s recent economic success.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Telegram, Pavel Durov and the shaky future for tech’s libertarian princelings The messaging app’s founder has become a poster boy for the backlash in Europe over CEO accountability — and a target for Russia

Absorbing long read on Pavel Durov & Telegram - recommend. www.ft.com/content/26c1...

Hillary Destroys the Republicans They’d soon regret sending her a subpoena.

If you haven’t read it, Hillary Clinton’s opening statement is powerful stuff.

open.substack.com/pub/borowitz...

Thought this was branding/ logo. No — it's charts of cumulative total returns from private credit 😬

Proposed index changes from Nasdaq look like a way to suck money out of index funds & inflate valns of low free-float tech stocks.

Given the weight of money in passive, really important stuff from @thekrazykobra.bsky.social on @alphaville.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/cdf3...

New York vs Valve: the loot box ‘gambling’ showdown Steamroller or pipe dream?

New York is suing Valve — the weird, cultish and wildly profitable gaming company, and @louisashworth.bsky.social is ON IT. www.ft.com/content/b146...

Cool dataviz from NYT on Trump tariffs www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Maybe corporate credit is just boring and fine The case for going long complacency

🚨 Looking for reasons to be cheerful in corporate credit.
www.ft.com/content/20ff...

FT Alphaville | Substack We're the FT's finance blog. If it's dumb, delightful or just weird and involves money we're probably interested in it. Click to read FT Alphaville, a Substack publication.

ICYMI, FT Alphaville now has a Substack, which doesn’t cost a thing.

Yes, there are a LOT of newsletters these days. But if you appreciate stupidly detailed explorations of finance and economics, judicious shitposting and killer charts, then please sign up? ftav.substack.com

No - it's their tail risk scenario that they say "investors increasingly want to talk about". Basically a scenario consistent with SaaSmageddon.

Private credit default rates including selective defaults. (Before there's another ChartGate, this is written in the sub-head)

🚨 Private credit default rates to jump to 15%?

UBS's tail-risk scenario that looks like a credit crunch.

www.ft.com/content/62d9...

Which piece of speculative fiction had the greatest single-day stock market impact? Oh, give my props to the writer. Price’s at an all-time low in the future

“Blade Runner depicted a world in which some people’s entire job is simply to clean up after bad robots, thereby accurately predicting the vibecoding trend.” www.ft.com/content/f123...

What are the implications for investors of the capital flywheel remaining a bit jammed?

Apart from, you know, having their money stuck in funds they can't redeem?

If history is a guide, rubbish returns.

Green shoots in the private equity winter? Baby, it’s cold outside

🚨Checking in on the PE winter for Alphaville

www.ft.com/content/b6f8...

Cheers - would be good

(Can see there’s an argument that this is pretty much all central bankers have done for the past x yrs)

ie, let the policy rate be the tail to the 30yr UST, with actual data pointing them to manage nr term hazards.

Really interesting- thx. Strikes me that both camps could look to the long end for a sense of how their arguments resonate.

Will AI-driven productivity growth allow the Fed to lower rates? Theory and data allow us to spin different narratives

This is very good.
www.ft.com/content/7fa0...

Policy making in an Elysium scenario On Wednesday evening I was fortunate enough to attend the Annual dinner of the Society of Business Economists. The keynote speaker was the Ignazio Visco, Governor of the Bank of Italy,  who gave a …

Given we're all looking again at what might happen if AI wipes out firms and areas of employment, re-upping this blog I wrote back in 2015 looking at fiscal and monetary policymaker options.

principlesandinterest.wordpress.com/2015/11/12/p...

'AI will replace all white collar work'

Investors: 'YES, YES!!!!'

'AI will solve all outstanding scientific problems and propel us to the stars'

Investors: 'Ooooohh, aaaahhh!!'

'AI will disrupt B2B SAAS'

Investors: 'Well, this is just fantastical nonsense. Is everyone stupid now?!'

Thanks Duncan

The AI That Wrote a Hit Piece When It Didn’t Get It's Way When an AI agent targeted an open source maintainer with a personalised reputation attack, it revealed a threat that PR, hiring and publishing professionals need to understand now.

This via @alphaville.ft.com is a staggering tale - a prelude to much more of this? www.themediastack.co.uk/p/the-ai-tha...

A heatmap showing the composition and performance of US leveraged loan universe YTD Feb 21 2026

🚨 How are leveraged loan investors pricing SaaSmageddon? www.ft.com/content/49bc...

Tbc, private credit and leveraged loans are not the same thing.

For one thing, creditor forbearance in private credit has been v high. And a rolling loan gathers no loss. Will be interesting to see whether this continues.

A heatmap showing the composition and performance of US leveraged loan universe YTD Feb 21 2026

🚨 How are leveraged loan investors pricing SaaSmageddon? www.ft.com/content/49bc...

Does Europe need more private credit? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. We’re just happy to see the data.

🚨 How big is the asset-backed-lending market, and will private credit conquer all? Charting the available data. www.ft.com/content/b7e1...