Anthony Masiello

The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) satellite-derived intensity estimate peaked at 185 knots for #Melissa -- which, according to the developer at CIMSS, is the highest value to date for any tropical cyclone.

If it doesn't turn soon, it's going to follow 78° right into Montego.

Longest eastern eyewall inundation in the Crawford/Black River cove it looks like. You agree?

One of the strongest hurricanes ever observed just before landfall. Brutal.

Descending mesoscale inflow jets in close proximity to core that work with the core or non-perturbing Vortex Rossby Waves, all a possibility with Melissa's ability to sustain/resist classic ERC so far. Experts will soon dive into the data to let us know. For now, we speculate.

You can kind of see the subtle ridge trend here on the last 4 runs of GFS for 00z 10/28.

Beautiful loop

I wonder if the convection near the SE Coast is sustaining the ridge a little longer north of Melissa (in addition to any possible trochoidal wobble).

Raw T 8.4 now. 👀

🤦‍♂️ Average CRT ~-80°C

😬

Here we go again
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ad...

This is the motion of Comet C/2025 A6 (Lemmon) over a period of 53 minutes.

#astrophotography

How the UK’s Hurricane-Strength Storm of 1987 Became a Famous Weather Forecasting Failure The Great Storm of 1987 was a forecasting blunder that left at least 18 people dead, felled 15 million trees and caused a billion pounds’ worth of damage.

On Oct. 16, 1987, southern Britain’s landscape was unrecognizable. Overnight, the country had been hit by its fiercest storm in more than 300 years where at least 18 people were killed. No one — not even Britain’s trusted weather forecasters — had seen it coming.

Thanks, Eric. We're past the worst of it but still monitoring kidneys/potential rebound.

‘I love Hitler’: Leaked messages expose Young Republicans’ racist chat Thousands of private messages reveal young GOP leaders joking about gas chambers, slavery and rape.

Link: www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

👏👏

14:30z obs on 10/12/25 showing Northeast Wind from NC to Maine & Nova Scotia.

Whether you are in the Outer Banks or up in New England, much of the Northeast US Coastal Plain is seeing northeasterly wind. Locally here in NJ, the LLJ will peak this evening/tonight before moving out/weakening tomorrow morning.

Barnegat, NJ Station 44091 wave heights reached 12-14 FT this morning (10/12/25)

Bethany Beach, DE Station 44084 wave heights reached 8-10 FT this morning (10/12/25)

Bethany Beach, DE and Barnegat, NJ wave heights plots this morning.

Live Cameras - Cape May Marina

You can get seasick watching the Cape May Marina webcam in the wind: capemaymarina.com/live-cameras/

How cool is that?

I have been enjoying watching the visible loop of the circulation off the NC/SC coastline this morning. The 12z analysis has a 992mb low here.

New surge forecasts are in... some up, some down, most same.

Big news: Cape May is now forecast to have the highest gauge level in its 25-year record. Lewes, DE has fallen from #3 to #7.

Major flooding being predicted Sunday afternoon at Cape May Harbor, NJ.

The current forecast at Cape May Harbor Sunday afternoon has major flooding. Uh oh.

A nor'easter is becoming likely this weekend/early next week for the Mid Atlantic. The idea of the northern stream s/w not cutting off to interact with the coastal storm is losing support.

Existing and intensifying Walker Circulation during Wyrtki Jet season is shown nicely there.

Great thread, Tomer. I've noticed the overall wave pattern over the last few days, despite the bouncing around with the s/w, has trended a little more amplified on the ensemble mean. I wonder if this will help tilt the scale into having a more cut off northern wave. But alas, it's only Wednesday.

This weekend's partial to full phase is going to be fun.

I went to check these products this morning and forgot...oh right, of course. :( It's the end of an era in the stratosphere world: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/str...

Visible satellite over NJ ~ 13:45z showing hole punch signatures.

Close-up. weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parm...