Jeremy Cliffe

From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age – European Council on Foreign Relations Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the tim

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Europe faces constant asymmetric threats—in Africa and elsewhere. In this @ecfr.eu policy brief, Will Brown and colleagues take a look at global hybrid threats Europe is confronting today and what it should do to defend its democratic societies.
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Özdemir: "We have raised many expectations among the people of Baden-Württemberg that the focus should be on the well-being of the state, not on party interests. I stand by that. That is how I intend to lead the state."

"Baden-Württembergs
Ministerpräsident
Cem Özdemir"

(S+) Wahl in Baden-Württemberg: Hagel gratuliert Özdemir – »Regierungsbildung liegt bei den Grünen« Baden-Württemberg hat gewählt, erste Hochrechnungen sehen die Grünen vor der CDU. Deren Spitzenkandidat Manuel Hagel hat bereits seine Niederlage eingeräumt, Cem Özdemir triumphiert. Der Wahlabend in ...

And it's over: CDU's Hagel concedes defeat to Greens' Özdemir and invites him to form the next state government.

Nothing remarkable, but a reminder that in a world of political chaos, German democracy still works quite well.

www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

The latest numbers from Stuttgart. Greens still ahead.

BBC World Service - The Documentary, Germany: Rebellion on the Rhine In the run up to Germany’s snap general elections Jeremy Cliffe goes to Ludwigshafen

Thoughts on the AfD result: I'd be the first to admit that the party is generally gaining ground in the German west (I made a whole BBC programme about this last year: bbc.co.uk/programmes/w...). But 18% in a state where the party took 15% in 2016 isn't all that impressive, tbh.

First solid results from Baden-Württemberg are in. Özdemir's lead over Hagel is actually larger than the original projection: 1.6 points up from 1 point.

YouTube video by GrueneBW Cem Özdemir: Das Auto der Zukunft

Another way in which an Özdemir win would matter: in an age of greenlash, Germany's car-making homeland would have voted in a minister-president who champions electric cars while his CDU opponent worships the internal combustion engine.

www.youtube.com/shorts/_BsIt...

Gastarbeitersohn Minischterpräsident

An Özdemir win would matter in another sense too. 7 decades after the first "guest workers" came to the federal republic, he would be the first minister-president of a German state to have Turkish roots. It wasn't a big factor in the campaign - people just like him (⬇️) - but is a moment nonetheless.

If this projection is borne out in the final results there will be lots of hot takes linking this to Merz's unpopularity, perhaps even his stance on Iran. But worth stressing the local factors: politics aside, Özdemir is one of the most affable figures in German politics and CDU's Hagel... isn't.

Polls have closed in the first of this year's five German state elections, in prosperous Baden-Württemberg. It's looking like a remarkable win-from-behind by the Greens under @oezdemir.de. Full results over the course of the evening.

The first lesson of war is ‘know your enemy’ – and Britain’s enemy now is Donald Trump | Simon Tisdall As the Iran disaster escalates, the US president should be seen as an enemy whose actions threaten the lawful, democratic way of life everywhere, says Guardian foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdal...

"This is Trump’s war of choice. But Britain has choices, too. 250 years after the American colonists broke free of empire, it’s time for a British declaration of independence."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

elpais.com/internaciona...

Cómo el asalto de Trump, Putin y Netanyahu hunde el mundo en la ley de la selva El orden multilateral basado en reglas que dio pequeños pasos adelante tras el fin de la Guerra Fría colapsa bajo una feroz ofensiva desde distintos lados

Good to talk to @andrea-rizzi.bsky.social for his cover piece in today's @elpais.com on Trump, Putin, Netanyahu and the "law of the jungle" in geopolitics ⬇️

elpais.com/internaciona...

12/ 2 wars in 4 years. This war will accelerate Solar +Batteries + EVs as real Energy Security

"rest of the world will learn an important lesson from China. Build out your renewables so you aren't as dependent on imported fossil fuels & the whims of idiots"

Be like Spain.
bsky.app/profile/jere...

Once again, the “sovereigntists” suffer from being strapped to the foreign policy of not one but two other powers.

Their candidate Hagel has compared... unfavourably with Özdemir

The first of five German state elections this year takes place tomorrow in Baden-Württemberg (home of Daimler, Porsche, Bosch, SAP). Looks set to be photo finish between CDU and Greens - remarkable achievement by Greens' @oezdemir.de, whose party was 10+ points behind in autumn.

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

It would be strategic lunacy for Europe to support the US/Israeli war on Iran. It is an illegal war that comes with huge costs: regional spillover, higher energy costs, helping Putin in Ukraine. It risks drawing Europe into a new regime change quagmire
ecfr.eu/article/stra...

2 wars in 4 years. This war will accelerate Solar +Batteries + EVs as real Energy Security.

"rest of the world will learn an important lesson from China. Build out your renewables so you aren't as dependent on imported fossil fuels & the whims of idiots"

Be like Spain. bsky.app/profile/jere...

The remarkable thing about Pedro Sánchez is that he has faced everything modern European politics has to throw at a government - the scars of the eurozone crisis, a polarised and fragmented politics, snobbery from other Europeans - and built the most successful economy and foreign policy in Europe.

Meanwhile, Spain's massive investment in renewables is paying dividends now: with prices for Spanish industry and consumers low and stable compared with other European economies.

www.ft.com/content/ac77...

Merz Warns of Economic Damage Due to ‘Endless’ War Against Iran German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the US and Israel against waging an “endless war” against Iran that could lead to the disintegration of the whole Middle Eastern state, a new migration crisis i...

Fascinating to watch 🇫🇷, then 🇬🇧, then 🇮🇹, now 🇩🇪 start to acknowledge what 🇪🇸's government recognised from the very start: the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran is a reckless intervention conducted without regard for rules of war and without a strategy for what comes next.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran
- my new piece with Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/stra...

Spain is a sovereign country — not a colony or a protectorate.

• US bases in Spain are not US sovereign territory. Their use must reflect the bilateral interests of both countries.
• Spain remains a loyal NATO ally, with troops deployed in Latvia, Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq.

Germany’s @taz.de on Merz’s trip to Washington: “Clueless tourist stranded in crisis zone”

The electric endgame: Europe’s clean path out of vassalage – European Council on Foreign Relations The geoeconomic power of the future will be shaped by climate policy. Countries that play the right moves in regulation, clean-tech production and climate finan

The geoeconomic power of the future will be shaped by climate policy. Countries that play the right moves in regulation, clean-tech production & climate finance today will win in the electrified world of tomorrow. @alberto-rizzi.bsky.social @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/publication/...

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

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bsky.app/profile/jere...