Jeremy Cliffe

"The AI infrastructure build-out is so gigantic that in the past 6 months, it contributed more to the growth of the U.S. economy than /all of consumer spending/" - @mims.bsky.social

My takeway is that The US has gone ALL IN BET OF THE 21st Century on AI, while China has gone all in on green tech

INTERVIEW: Europe’s armies at ‘50% of what we need’, says defence commissioner - Euractiv The commissioner sat down with Euractiv to discuss EU defence policy priorities

Lots in this interview with EU Defense Commissioner Kubilius. Says EU spending on US weapons down from 60% to 40% of EU procurement. “If we manage to incentivise member states also to spend more on European products, it means less for American products, slowly.” www.euractiv.com/section/defe...

One of our policy fellows @kirland.bsky.social just published a new book on civil-defence relations in Russian defence policymaking. Check it out now 👇

Scot-free: What Europeans should take from Trump’s trade deal Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump have announced a 15% tariff on most EU goods exported to the US. The compromise has avoided a trade war for now—but Europeans need to safeguard the deal’s…

My take on the US-EU trade deal in this @ecfr.eu policy alert:
- EU preferred an unequal deal rather than retaliating to maybe get a better one
- Some economic silver linings don't cancel the political capitulation
- EU needs credible retribution to prevent further US demands
ecfr.eu/article/scot...

Anton offers a realist’s view. I think ‘damage limitation’ was the mantra in Brussels and most EU capitals.

But that framing accepts the US tariffs as a given. And even if that’s right, sometimes you have to fight back to limit the damage. Europe had significant leverage it was unwilling to use.

It depends how you see the future of the liberal world order. If you believe the US will return to liberal promoter after Trump, the EU failed to stand up for its values. If you believe Trump is the start of a new era of US mercantilism/protectionism, the EU got most it can in today's circumstances

In the EU, there are indeed two schools of thought on dealing with Trump:

- group one consults game theorists, viewing him as rational agent of US interests
- group two turns to forensic psychiatrists

Not sure anyone is trusting Trump’s words though, just as Trump shouldn’t trust the EU’s word when it comes to all the import and investment promises. The Europeans have just bought some time.

Nothing "realo" about trusting Trump's word.

My gloss on the realo-optimist v euro-sovereigntist divide:

- the distinction traces, but also transcends, some wider intellectual divides
- genuine overlap between the tendencies (mainly regret over Europe's wasted fine-weather years)
- convergence and divergence both conceivable at this stage

Interesting to see two European schools of thought developing on the EU-US trade "deal":

- realo-optimists emphasising damage limitation & EU dependence on US
- euro-sovereigntists emphasising failure to use EU tools and deter Trump with strength

Similar emergent dynamics on defence and digital.

How the EU Botched its Trade Policy Response Brussels has failed to get to grips with the second Trump administration. It needs to change tack and respond to Trump’s tariffs by meeting force with force.

It was all written for a moment. This EU-US deal should not be a surprise ip-quarterly.com/en/how-eu-bo...

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There's a term for this: learned helplessness.

NEW :Trump, Lutnick and Greer will meet Von der Leyen, Sefcovic, her chief of staff Björn Seibert, Sabine Weyand (remember her from Brexit days) and Tomas Baert, member of VDL's cabinet and key member of negotiating team. Presser expected after meeting at 4.30pm BST, 5.30pm CET. Press conf after

The polarising power of Andriy Yermak, Ukraine’s other wartime leader President Zelenskyy’s right-hand man is fuelling concerns over creeping authoritarianism

Unelected. Unapologetic. Uncompromising.
Andriy Yermak is not Ukraine’s president. But he often acts like one. He handpicks government officials—and dismisses them. The prime minister and military brass frequently defer to him.
My FT Mag profile of Ukraine's Green Cardinal
www.ft.com/content/4d61...

EU Readies €100 Billion No-Deal Plan to Match US 30% Tariff The European Union plans to quickly hit the US with 30% tariffs on some €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of goods in the event of no deal and if US President Donald Trump carries through with his thr...

The European Union plans to quickly hit the US with 30% tariffs on some €100 billion worth of goods in the event of no deal and if US President Donald Trump carries through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc’s exports after Aug. 1.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New tools: How the EU can show China it means business Chinese policymakers are well used to ignoring European objections to decisions made in Beijing. With a new array of tools, the EU could finally cause them to think differently.

"Europeans should take the opportunity of the forthcoming summit to be unambiguous about their core concerns vis-à-vis China’s actions." On the eve of the EU-China Summit in Beijing, make sure to check out @abachulska.bsky.social's latest commentary ⬇️
buff.ly/gpnHxIZ

Snap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a…

Opinion: "The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this 'snapback' mechanism—and China could play a crucial role in what comes next", writes Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/snap...

Outrage in Ukraine as the government attacks anti-corruption watchdogs President Zelensky tightens his control

“the vote to undermine Ukraine’s most consequential anti-corruption reforms casts a shadow over the country’s future course. Ukraine has been building up to this moment for several weeks, with what appears to be a growing crackdown on internal dissent” www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

Most interesting aspect of this @financialtimes.com Interview with @kajakallas.bsky.social is that she is voicing an assumption for the Asian partners that currently few European leaders dare voice openly for themselves - that they can't trust the US on security anymore.

on.ft.com/4flcMVj

Snap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a…

It is inconceivable that—having experienced the pain of military strikes—snapback can force Iran to accept the US demand of zero-enrichment of uranium, writes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director @ecfrmena.bsky.social
Click to read her new commentary in full:

Europeans lack of confidence in their ability to do industrial policy remains a sight to behold.

Fret the bloc can’t build rare earths?

The global market for them is €3.5 billion a year.

Germany could buy the whole global market for 10 years for the money it used to bailout gas firm Uniper.

War in Gaza 'must end now' say 25 Western nations in joint statement The signatories, including Australia, Canada, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, urged Israel to 'comply with its obligations under international humanitarian law.'

No major Western government understood the reality of the Gaza war sooner than the Spanish one. The Sánchez administration got there a good 18 months before many of these signatories.

www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...

Snap out of it: Europe, Iran and nuclear negotiations The deadline is looming for Britain, France and Germany to decide whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran. They are right to consider an extension to this “snapback” mechanism—and China could play a…

Europe's leverage in Middle East is patchy. But ECFR has spotted two windows of opportunity: 1) Ellie Geranmayeh on how E3 (🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪) can use Iran sanctions "snapback" for deescalation ecfr.eu/article/snap..., 2) Muhammad Shehada on Hamas's quiet opening to arms decommissioning ecfr.eu/article/deco...

Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.

New @muhammadshehada.bsky.social piece for @ecfr.eu eu on how a battered Hamas remains unbroken but may be quietly opening up to a phased decommissioning of its arms ecfr.eu/article/deco...

Harmattan hazards: How coastal west Africa can escape the Sahel’s fate Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo face a double threat—from jihadists creeping south from the Sahel and coup plotters lurking within. As northern borders buckle, the region could slip into…

📢 European leaders can stem the tide of growing instability in coastal West Africa, but they face a delicate balancing act: scaling up much-needed support to states in the Gulf of Guinea while trying to avoid the pitfalls of their engagement in the Sahel. @ecfr.eu
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The Commission proposal for the next long-term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. Its overall volume increases very moderately, but the proposal contains sweeping changes to the way the EU spends money and to budget's priorities.

Here is my first quick take:

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating…

"If the essence of nuclear deterrence is mutual assured destruction, Europe needs to demonstrate mutual asymmetric dependency. Aspects of 🇺🇸 prosperity & geopolitical power have for decades benefited from good relations with Europe. Europeans command certain of these chokepoints. They do hold cards"

The Gaza Crisis and its implications for the region: Europe's role- a conversation with Sigrid Kaag, Former Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Moderated by Nicola Reindorp, CEO, Crisis Action.

Click the link to watch the conversation in full🔗#ACM25
buff.ly/17XcyaX