Thomas Abt

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The Transformative Power of the White ‘Race Traitor’

"The willingness of Good and Pretti to put themselves in danger for the cause of racial justice proved an unparalleled galvanizing force, one that simultaneously affirms the best about America, and the worst." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/m...

Focused deterrence can reduce crime: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials and quasi‐experiments Research summary Crime and violence continue to be problems that plague urban areas across the United States and the globe. One key approach for responding to these problems is “focused deterrence” ...

A very important study with practical significance for the field of violence reduction was just published in Criminology & Public Policy. Read on. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

n sum, focused deterrence works to reduce crime and violence, and this high-quality, comprehensive review should put any remaining debate on that to rest. The next question is how to scale the strategy while preserving quality and fidelity.

Practice | Violence Reduction Center

Is this the ONLY thing cities should do? Of course not. In our work with cities, @vrcinfo.bsky.social recommended focused deterrence to 3 of 4 current partners, all of whom are successfully pursuing it. But we've recommended other strategies as well. vrc.umd.edu/practice

In my professional view, any city suffering from high rates of violent crime should at least consider this strategy. It is the most powerful program out there, and this body of evidence is, in my view, now pretty much undeniable.

To be clear, the review indicated that focused deterrence doesn't always work and that it can be challenging to implement and sustain. But that's true of just about every worthwhile program in this area.

Important note for those concerned about overpolicing and overincarceration: when properly implemented, focused deterrence is NOT associated with increased arrests. Many times, arrests actually decline. Communities tend to view it favorably as well.

What were the results? Once again, focused deterrence demonstrated significant effects on violent crime (-23.7%), violent firearm crime (-25.1%), drug/disorder outcomes (-16.2%), and property offenses (-15.8%). In the world of criminal justice programs, these are large effects.

This much larger body of evidence, along with the inclusion of numerous RCTs, means we can have A LOT more confidence in the results of this review. I personally was already convinced, but this should persuade many of the skeptics who might be still on the fence.

The review covered 50 studies - double the previous review - and very importantly included 9 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). RCTs are widely understood to have the most reliability in terms of determining whether a program "works" or not.

What is focused deterrence? The study authors sum it up like this:

The study by Braga, Turchan, and Weisburd is an updated systematic review of focused deterrence anti-violence strategies. The review was performed first in 2012 and then again in 2018. Both times the strategy showed positive impacts on crime and violence.

Focused deterrence can reduce crime: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials and quasi‐experiments Research summary Crime and violence continue to be problems that plague urban areas across the United States and the globe. One key approach for responding to these problems is “focused deterrence” ...

A very important study with practical significance for the field of violence reduction was just published in Criminology & Public Policy. Read on. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Community-Based Violence Intervention in the Aftermath of Homicide: Community Violence Prevention Specialists’ Proximity to and Perspectives on Community Safety and Healing - Julia J. Lund, Amanda J. ... Communities impacted by homicide endure profound loss and trauma, yet the voices of those intimately acquainted with navigating its aftermath are often overlook...

@ucdaviscvp.bsky.social spoke with 45 community violence prevention specialists (CVPS) to explore their role in preventing violence. Their proximity and perspective provide valuable guidance to inform and strengthen violence reduction efforts. Read more: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

The National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform's Group Violence Reduction Strategy includes combining data-driven identification, respectful engagement, intensive relationship-based supports, focused enforcement when necessary, and performance tracking. Read here: nicjr.org/files/galler...

What they said is supported by science: effective public safety depends on trust and partnership. We need cops and communities coming together. And we need federal/state/local collaboration, not competition. I hope folks in White House will listen.

We're deeply impressed by the courage we've seen, and kudos to Mayors Dickens, Johnston, Wu, Young, and the others for their steady leadership in trying times. Kudos to our other VRC Mayors Kincannon, Spencer, and Williams as well.

At best, the VRC provides cities with a small edge - helping to put together a roadmap informed by science and supported by local stakeholders. At the end of the day, however, it's folks on the ground who do the real work of turning plans into action.

The VRC provides the mayor and other key stakeholders with the most reliable crime science out there, presented in completely nonpartisan terms. We also bring the lived experience of local stakeholders into the room. From there, the city chooses how to proceed.

Violence and crime is falling in most U.S. cities. That said, VRC partners are outperforming the national averages. Why? We help bring local stakeholders together under the leadership of mayors in support of evidence-informed, community-informed anti-violence plans.

9 Mayors Discuss Safety and Trust in Their Cities Under Trump

I'm proud to say @vrcinfo.bsky.social has partnered with 4 of the 9 mayors profiled here. We provide nonpartisan training and technical assistance FOR FREE to mayors looking to save lives by stopping violent crime. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/u...

YouTube video by KMOX The Chris & Amy Show 1-13-26

Check out VRC Director @thomasabt.bsky.social interview on the Chris and Amy show on @kmoxnews.bsky.social, where he discusses St. Louis's encouraging progress in violence reduction through the regional Save Lives Now! initiative.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sHN...

Agree with this. @vrcinfo.bsky.social and others have been pushing these polices for the past few years and it's made a difference. Read the whole @nytimes.com piece, based on the @counciloncj.org's excellent new report. counciloncj.org/crime-trends...

Thank you!

Will this historic progress continue? No one knows, but I worry that federal actions decimating funding for state and local anti-crime programs, not to mention everything else the feds are doing, could undo much of this good work.

To reduce violent crime effectively, you need strategies that are focused, balanced, and fair. We saw more strategies like these (focused deterrence, cognitive behavioral interventions, hot spots policing) in recent years.

Why is this happening? My take (and it's only a take) is that as we get farther from the factors that spiked crime in 2020 (pandemic, protests, gun sales), rates started to decline, plus cities with help from the feds implemented smart anti-crime policies.

Violent crime overall in 2025 was at or below levels in 2019. There were 25% fewer homicides in 2025 than in 2019. Aggravated assault (-6%), gun assault (-13%), sexual assault (-4%), domestic violence (-19%), robbery (-36%), and carjacking (-29%) also were lower in 2025 than in 2019.