Thomas Abt

And I haven't even discussed the threats to democratic norms, civil rights, and civil liberties. Overall, this appears to be about politics, not policy, and it seems like much of this will do more harm than good.

If Trump was really concerned about crime in DC, he could fix the crime lab, improve information-sharing, fill judicial vacancies, and fund improvements in community-based violence prevention. I told Congress about all these in 2023:

The same goes for other agencies participating in the surge - FBI, ATF, DEA, etc. Here I'm also worried because these folks have critical law enforcement duties they're being pulled away from. I want my FBI agents fighting organized crime and terrorism, not walking beats.

It's also unclear what these guardsmen will be doing. They don't have the same authority to conduct law enforcement activities as MPD. They don't have the training either. How is this helping the city? Again, unclear.

Trump's memo calls for a surge of national guardsmen into the city. Surges like these might drive crime down temporarily simply via deterrence, but they rarely have a lasting impact because they don't address the underlying conditions that drive crime in the first place.

Why take over a police department that, according to the numbers, seems to be doing well? Also, Pam Bondi and Terry Cole, who will be overseeing MPD, have no local law enforcement experience. What will they change? How will they do better?

Trump's EO cites "rising crime" as a justification for temporarily taking over the MPD. That's wrong - violent crime has dropped 46% this year and dropped 35% last year according to MPD's latest numbers.

FBI agents are not trained to patrol streets. And every agent that is assigned to do that is NOT investigating:

*foreign spies stealing gov’t and trade secrets
*foreign and domestic terrorist threats
*crimes like fraud, corruption, trafficking, and violent crimes (among others)

Do you feel safer?

One thing that didn't make it into today's piece:

Washington, DC already has by far the highest number of law enforcement officers per capita of any city of 250k+.

Assessing DC's Violent Crime Trends Murder is plunging in DC but what about overall violent crime?

New this week, assessing violent crime in Washington, DC:

Murder's plunging, carjacking's plunging, & overall violent crime is near modern lows, though it's probably not falling as fast as the public data says it is.

jasher.substack.com/p/assessing-...

This administration’s assault on the rule of law is deeply disturbing and goes far beyond the efforts of any previous administration, Democratic or Republican. Do not let anyone tell you this is normal.

Murder Officially Plunged in 2024 That and more takeaways from the FBI's 2024 Reported Crime in the Nation report.

3/ Basically, it's all good news. Historically good. I could say more, but I can't do better than @jeffasher.bsky.social's summary, so just check that out instead: open.substack.com/pub/jasher/p...

2/ The FBI did a nice job this year on the data, with helpful summaries, FAQs, and more. We're also at nearly 100% population coverage in terms of reporting agencies - another good sign. Check it all out here:

1/ The FBI's 2024 crime numbers are out. Violent crime overall decreased 4.5% compared to 2023, murder and declined 14.9%. Rapes, aggravated assault, and robberies dropped 5.2%, 3.0%, and 8.9% respectively. Property crime decreased 8.1%.

This book is changing how cities fight gun violence Thomas Abt’s Bleeding Out has become foundational in tackling urban violence across the US.

I'd like to think we've made at least a small difference. www.vox.com/politics/373...

It was moderates and moderate ideas, on all sides, that really deserve the credit for the crime decline. Since I wrote Bleeding Out in 2019, myself and many others have been pushing an evidence-informed, community-informed approach to these issues.

Is Dionne giving a bit too much credit to progressives generally? Yes. On the left, some embraced radical ideas and rhetoric in the wake of Floyd that were harmful. But on the right, we're seeing a dangerous turn towards authoritarianism and mindless "tough on crime" approaches.

Mayors played a big part too. They embraced a similarly balanced agenda, pulling cops and communities together, investing in evidence-informed practices. At @vrcinfo.bsky.social, we work alongside these leaders incl @mayorwu.boston.gov @caraspencer.bsky.social Paul Young Indya Kinncanon and others.

What did Biden and co. do right? Essentially, they invested in what worked. Grants for better policing. Funds for community-based violence intervention. Dollars to strengthen enforcement around illegal guns. They also rejected "defund" rhetoric that some on their side tolerated.

Crime policy should be above politics, but it's also important to give credit where it's due: Biden and his team inherited a major crime spike and helped turn it around over their 4 years in office. It wasn't the only thing driving crime down, but it made a big difference.

Opinion | The good news about murder Homicides are way down. What happened, what we can learn and how progressives became crime fighters.

Pleased to see this from @ejdionne.bsky.social highlighting what's gone right with crime and violence over the past few years. As some might not know, violent crime nationally is way down from its recent peak in 2021, and property crime is also down. Read on. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Join one of VRC’s partner cities, @cityofstl.bsky.social, as the next Commissioner of Violence Prevention.

This is a unique chance to lead meaningful, community-focused change in a city committed to public safety innovation.

Apply now! careers.stlouis-mo.gov/careersectio...

Convicted of murder in Venezuela. Freed by the Trump administration. The case of Dahud Hanid Ortíz, a U.S.-Venezuelan citizen brought home in Trump’s prisoner swap, has upset U.S. allies and sown division in the State Department.

Releasing convicted murderers is not tough on crime. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

We're launching a new YouTube channel today with short videos and (eventually) a podcast designed to communicate crime/policing data and trends better. Come subscribe for all the fun!

www.youtube.com/@Aggregated_...

At the VRC, we did a deep dive on the RIGHT way to target those at the highest risk for violence, using community violence problem analyses. Take a look at our white paper here: vrc.umd.edu/sites/vrc.um...

Like policing generally, when done wrong, the whole enterprise is questioned. That's why efforts like these are so frustrating, as they will (a) hurt people and then (b) make the efforts of others doing similar but better work much much harder.

State Cops Quietly Tag Thousands as Gang Members — and Feed Their Names to ICE Gang databases are often racially biased and riddled with errors. States and cities send their flawed information to ICE.

Law enforcement SHOULD be collecting and sharing intelligence on those who would harm their communities, but "gang databases" are riddled with errors, do little to protect us, and threaten our civil liberties. theintercept.com/2025/07/22/i...

Big Law Firms Bowed to Trump. A Corps of ‘Little Guys’ Jumped in to Fight Him.

Every once in a while, a more hopeful story.

Reading this, I remembered the last lines of HBO's Chernobyl:
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Liberal democracy is a fighting faith. Fight to defend it. Cynicism is an authoritarian government’s best friend.