x5ms2 @x5ms2 - Bluesky Profile

From the "You knew this, but still" dep't: the evolution of pitcher useage - BB Cards & Stats Not news but the data picture is still–to me, at least–pretty mind blowing! Compiled this in connection with some additional analyses on the statistical validity of using teams’ Pythagorean Expectatio...

bbcardstats.com/from-the-you...

21.02.2026 00:47 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

you'd figure Carlton would have to win 100 games himself for this to occur! Even more amazing than '73 Mets' real finish

12.01.2026 04:02 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Got a distinctive loss function? The mWAR Estimator is here to help! - BB Cards & Stats One cool element of the “mWAR Estimator” is that it is customizable to user preferences. Say the user were one who was trying to decide whether to retain or hire a new manager. What preferences might ...

bbcardstats.com/got-a-distin...

12.01.2026 03:59 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Billy Martin should have been Campy's target.

12.01.2026 03:59 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

it was after Campaneris threw a bat at his head in '72 ALCS!

10.12.2025 16:49 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

is it true that LaGrow is now wearing a batting helmet on the mound?

10.12.2025 16:03 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Stephen Vogt: manager of the year-again (introducing w162p) - BB Cards & Stats Here’s one fun feature of the manager-value estimator tools feature in the “Monkeys vs. Earl Weaver” paper: they use different instruments for measuring season-by-season performance, on the one hand, ...

Bayesball tells us that Vogt is one of the greatest mangers of all time! #Guardians

bbcardstats.com/stephen-vogt...

10.12.2025 16:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Monkey mangers have evolved ... a lot! New paper on Bayesian manager-value estimator - BB Cards & Stats Well, this sure took a lot longer than expected! And now that I’m here, I can see that I’m not even there yet…. But here you go–the monkeys took a break from Strato-o-Matic and pounded on typewriters...

bbcardstats.com/monkey-mange...

09.12.2025 16:36 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Good enough for cows, good enough for managers: mBLUP! (Measuring managers part 5) - BB Cards & Stats Hey—you remember Mr. BLUP, right? Also known as the “best linear unbiased predictor,” Mr. BLUP supplied a cool benchmark in our study of the performance of park-factor adjusted estimators of “true” or...

bbcardstats.com/good-enough-...

22.09.2025 15:28 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

@thesmallhallpod.bsky.social @baseballhappypants.bsky.social @thewarmonger.bsky.social @bballhist.bsky.social @cira.bsky.social @yonxzype.bsky.social @therealtommy2tone.bsky.social @kickysam49.com @bloggertubbs.bsky.social @adarowski.bsky.social @x5ms2.bsky.social

17.09.2025 12:04 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Strat-o-Matic-playing monkeys go to mWAR (measuring managers part 4) - BB Cards & Stats Okay, let’s continue our examination of manager WAR or MWAR. As explained last time, MWAR is a career-level measure of manager-value added to (or subtracted from) team performance. It’s measured, appr...

WAR breaks out on planet of the monkey manager apes!
bbcardstats.com/strat-o-mati...

05.09.2025 15:12 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

mWAR: empirically measuring managers part 3 - BB Cards & Stats So having recovered from our exciting adventure with Horowitz’s PH, we’re ready for another manager-value measure. This one we’ll call Manager War or MWAR. We’ll call it that for two related reasons. ...

monkey free... for now
bbcardstats.com/mwar-empiric...

01.09.2025 15:12 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

after this happens, it's good idea to replace dice

27.08.2025 19:44 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Monkeys play Bayesball! Measuring managers part 2 - BB Cards & Stats So last time, we were on the verge of concluding that our featured managers’ Horowitz PHs were just a pile of monkey poop. The Monte Carlo Monkeys Playing Strat-o-matic (MC-MPS) simulation had created...

The monkeys with strat-o-matic boards are back!
bbcardstats.com/monkeys-play...

27.08.2025 15:29 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🍺🍿

25.08.2025 11:23 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🎳

25.08.2025 11:22 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁👩‍🚀

25.08.2025 11:21 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🏇

24.08.2025 11:58 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🥳🎁🎂🎂

24.08.2025 11:56 — 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🥤

23.08.2025 11:08 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁😻

23.08.2025 11:06 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🍺

23.08.2025 11:05 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🎳

23.08.2025 11:04 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🌭

23.08.2025 11:04 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎁🎂🍿

22.08.2025 12:06 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🎁🥳🎂🏸

22.08.2025 12:05 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🥳🎂🎁🧇

22.08.2025 12:05 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

🎂🥳🎁🍺

22.08.2025 12:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Is Aaron Boone the best manager of all time?! Measuring managers part 1 - BB Cards & Stats The answer depends on what you think of the validity of a measure of managerial value we’ll call Horowitz’s PH, which was invented by the late business professor Ira Horowitz. Now you might be inclin...

Can a room full of monkeys replaying 131,000 seasons on strat-o-matic help us figure out if manager skill really exists/matters?

bbcardstats.com/is-aaron-boo...

22.08.2025 00:03 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

New paper: Empirical study of MLB park factors - BB Cards & Stats I’ve emerged. . . . New paper is treasure collected during immersion in the park-factor rabbit hole. Featured studies—consecutive stints (with Ms. Sim and Mr. BLUP), home park vs. away, and quasi-expe...

bbcardstats.com/new-paper-em...

14.08.2025 14:50 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

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