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Lee Crawfurd

@leecrawfurd.bsky.social

Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Global Development https://www.cgdev.org/expert/lee-crawfurd

4,393 Followers  |  1,404 Following  |  1,935 Posts  |  Joined: 05.07.2023
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Posts by Lee Crawfurd (@leecrawfurd.bsky.social)

Physicians and the Production of Health: Returns to Health Care during the Mortality Transition Abstract. This paper investigates the returns to health care provision during the mortality transition. We construct a new panel data set covering German municipalities from 1928 to 1936. The…

direct.mit.edu/rest/article...

26.02.2026 23:23 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Nazis stopped Jewish doctors from practising, so thousands of them left the country (my great grandfather was one of them). So many left that this was a good natural experiment for estimating the causal effect of losing doctors on infant mortality (& thousands died)

26.02.2026 23:23 β€” πŸ‘ 93    πŸ” 40    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 3
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What Are We Learning about the Impacts ofβ€”and Solutions toβ€”School-Related Violence? School-related violence undermines students’ safety, learning, and other educational outcomes, as well as the overall well-being of both students and teachers. We convened researchers from a range of ...

Earlier this month, the @cgdev.org hosted a research workshop on the topic of school-related violence. Here is a round-up of every research paper we saw. www.cgdev.org/blog/what-ar...

If you want more, you can watch videos of the conference here. www.cgdev.org/event/call-p...

25.02.2026 21:45 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
UK Lead Exposure Map β€” IHME GBD 2021

I think it was just showing the national average & national population (for that age range) for areas with missing data - should be fixed now - lcrawfurd.github.io/lead-map/

25.02.2026 18:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Uber reduced traffic fatalities by 5%?!!

direct.mit.edu/rest/article...

25.02.2026 13:57 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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What Elon Has Done Elon Musk's destruction of USAID has faded from public consciousness in America, despite leaving death and destruction in its wake.

β€œthe largest act of mass murder of this decade, and of this century so far, was not perpetrated by militaries or militias, but by the world's richest man in Washington D.C.'s Eisenhower Executive Office Building.” @mckay4senate.bsky.social www.liberalcurrents.com/what-elon-ha...

24.02.2026 11:29 β€” πŸ‘ 756    πŸ” 347    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 19

Reform don't want to regulate your landlord.

They don't want to regulate your employer.

But they do want to regulate your sex life.

24.02.2026 12:46 β€” πŸ‘ 154    πŸ” 67    πŸ’¬ 10    πŸ“Œ 2
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Up to half of used lead-acid batteries in Africa could be coming from off-grid solar systems.

Important new paper by @rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & Caroline Mallory

www.cgdev.org/publication/...

25.02.2026 09:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa The cuts in US foreign aid have probably caused hundreds of thousands of people to die. But real-time data on what is actually going on has been scarce. A new working paper is the first I've seen to s...

New data shows US aid cuts have led to a measurable rise in armed conflict.

@leecrawfurd.bsky.social breaks down new evidence on how aid cuts are affecting conflict dynamics, specifically in Africa:
https://go.cgdev.org/40nCem8

24.02.2026 17:47 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Congratulations to Drew and everyone at @pureearthnow.bsky.social !

24.02.2026 15:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Is Lead Poisoning a Missing Link in the Fight Against Malnutrition? Lead exposure is increasingly recognized as a major global health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Much of the research and policy attention to date has focused on it...

A new analysis from the Center for Global Development (@cgdev.org) explores whether lead poisoning may be a missing link in the global fight against child malnutrition.

Check out the full blog here:

09.02.2026 18:25 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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We cannot wait for another tragedy before the Government takes meaningful action on lead exposure and poisoning.

Many might think of lead poisoning as a problem of the past. But that simply isn’t true.🧡

24.02.2026 10:36 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

The big lesson:

Stunting is not fixed by geography or culture.

It is historically contingent β€” and reversible.

Countries that eliminated widespread stunting did so over decades of sustained change.

9)

23.02.2026 18:18 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Looking forward to speaking on this panel next week - so much shifting so quickly at the foreign office at the moment and there's a big and (I think) v interesting convo in there about how we scrutinise aid spend.

20.02.2026 15:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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How Should the UK Scrutinise Its Aid Spending?

Come discuss with us at tomorrow @cgdev.org in Westminster Tue 24th at 5pm

with @sarahchampionmp.bsky.social
@hannahkeenan.bsky.social @instituteforgovernment.org.uk
@ianmitchell1.bsky.social

www.cgdev.org/event/future...

23.02.2026 13:39 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
UK Lead Exposure Map β€” IHME GBD 2021

About 2% of children in the UK have elevated blood lead levels. I made an interactive map (with a little help from Claude) so you can see the % in your local area.

lcrawfurd.github.io/lead-map/

23.02.2026 13:07 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa This post first appeared on the CGD blog.

US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa

open.substack.com/pub/leecrawf...

23.02.2026 13:04 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
UK Lead Exposure Map β€” IHME GBD 2021

interactive version here lcrawfurd.github.io/lead-map/

23.02.2026 12:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) Lead Exposure Estimates 1990-2021 | GHDx

raw data is available here ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-...

23.02.2026 11:55 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The UK is terrifyingly ignorant when it comes to the problem of lead exposure. I've described it as a "don't ask, don't tell strategy".

So it's great to have got politicians, scientists, policy researchers and to endorse the call for a national child screening program

www.ft.com/content/ee60...

23.02.2026 08:04 β€” πŸ‘ 86    πŸ” 28    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2
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MPs and peers call for all UK children to be screened for lead Letter from lawmakers and academics comes after FT investigation reveals impact of toxic metal on human health

MPs and peers call for all UK children to be screened for lead

www.ft.com/content/ee60...

23.02.2026 07:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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How to Actually Fix Foreign Aid We can’t turn back the clock on USAID. But we can decide what comes next.

Good piece by David Miliband:

"As Rachel Glennerster, president of the Center for Global Development, has argued, aid would go further with radically simpler interventions in far fewer places that need it the most"

foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/19/f...

21.02.2026 21:48 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Nice coverage--and replication--of our working paper "Aid, Interrupted" by @leecrawfurd.bsky.social in a revlcent @cgdev.org blog post.

Here is the link to the current version of the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

18.02.2026 19:57 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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New Blog for CGD:
US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa

www.cgdev.org/blog/us-aid-...

18.02.2026 15:43 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

What America did through ideology, the UK does in order to get a budget projection that we don't even really care about

16.02.2026 09:50 β€” πŸ‘ 202    πŸ” 75    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 1
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Netflix’s β€˜answer to Chernobyl’ tells harrowing story of lead poisoning The period drama has been hailed as 'compelling'.

new lead smelter poisoning drama on Netflix!

metro.co.uk/2026/02/12/n...

13.02.2026 10:23 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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How to Do Technical Assistance (Well) Declining aid budgets are changing how major donors operate. The UK’s Minister for International Development Jenny Chapman has said that UK aid will shift β€œfrom grants to expertise” and β€œfrom service ...

Aid cuts in the UK signals a move from "grants to expertise"β€”meaning a shift to low-cost technical assistance.

Through his work with African governments, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social shares examples of both good and bad models of technical assistance:
https://go.cgdev.org/45atSBo

12.02.2026 21:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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How African Governments Responded to the 2025 Aid Shock We examine what African governments actually did or said in response to announcements of aid cuts in 2025; mapping the type, scope, and intensity of government responses, using the previous year as a ...

How African Governments Responded to the 2025 Aid Shock

New @cgdev.org blog by Biniam Bedasso

www.cgdev.org/blog/how-afr...

11.02.2026 11:14 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Don’t Scrap the UK’s Independent Commission for Aid Impact, Make It Better
by @leecrawfurd.bsky.social and Ian Mitchell, @cgdev.org
buff.ly/aaxRqUG

10.02.2026 12:02 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Don’t Scrap the UK’s Independent Commission for Aid Impact, Make It Better Last month the UK development minister discussed in parliament the possibility that she might scrap the β€œIndependent Commission for Aid Impact”. While critics have accused her of simply trying to avoi...

The UK is considering scrapping the Independent Commission for Aid Impactβ€”but it's crucial in scrutinizing aid & strengthening accountability.

Rather than abolish it, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social and @ianmitchell1.bsky.social lay out 5 reforms to boost its value/impact:
https://go.cgdev.org/4toR09E

09.02.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1