Parker

It is kinda funny that “taking over” Hormuz has become the get out of jail free card, the strait is merely the shortest part of the gulf, there is still hundreds of miles of coastline that Iran can lob drones and missiles from

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gloomy time change = bake an old fashioned blackberry cake

Once upon a time we had a deal with Iran that prevented them from getting a nuke - our highest strategic imperative. It worked! Wonder whatever happened to that

With the way things are going we’ll be back to bombing Iran every 6 months for the foreseeable future. As soon as we’re done with this disaster, they will move for a nuke faster than they ever have

good morning

Statements like this from Trump will make the oil market reaction *worse*

No one who has any idea how the oil market works is buying it—all this does is make it seem like Trump believes it, which means the base case length of this disruption is growing ever-longer.

Tick. Tock.

Headlines BBG Only All Dates Time   *CSI 300 INDEX FALLS 2% TO 4,567.17 BN 21:35 *CHINA'S 30Y BOND FUTURES DROP 0.7%, BIGGEST DROP THIS YEAR BFW 21:34 *KOSPI DROP HITS CIRCUIT BREAKER; TRADING HALTED FOR 20 MINS BN 21:32 *SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI SINKS 8%, TRIGGERING CIRCUIT BREAKER BN 21:32 *S. KOREA BRIEFLY HALTS KOSDAQ PROGRAM TRADING AS FUTURES DROP BN 21:32 *PHILIPPINE STOCK INDEX FALLS 3.4% TO 6,105.23 BN 21:32 *SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI SINKS 8%, TRIGGERING CIRCUIT BREAKER BN 21:31 *CHINA'S CHINEXT INDEX FALLS 3% TO 3,132.33 BN 21:31 *PHILIPPINE STOCK INDEX FALLS 2.8% TO 6,141.38 BN 21:31 *PHILIPPINE STOCK INDEX FALLS 1.9% TO 6,198.45 AT OPEN BN 21:31 *SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI INDEX FALLS 8%, NEARS TRADING HALT BN 21:30 *HONG KONG'S HANG SENG INDEX FALLS 3% TO 24,977.60 BN 21:30

One of those nights

No signs of it ending soon

*WTI OIL RISES ABOVE $100/BARREL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2022

In other words Trump-Netanyahu have effectively carried out massive uncontained poison gas attacks on Tehran and its people.

I'm no fancy political consultant, but, hey, if you're in Dem comms, you should notice that Fox News panicked over Trump wearing a cheap Trump merch baseball cap to receive the bodies of soldiers he got killed for no reason he can articulate, and you should absolutely lean into that.

They found the inflation button now after tariffs didn’t work fast enough.

So much online conservatism these days is just "I miss being a kid"

The attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East are more intense than I think people anticipated this past week and the attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure, in particular, makes the closure of the strait of Hormuz *more* likely. Not good

Hmm

This is a big deal

*ORACLE AND OPENAI END PLANS TO EXPAND TEXAS DATA CENTER SITE
*ORACLE-OPENAI TALKS TO LEASE STARGATE EXPANSION SITE BROKE DOWN
*META IN DISCUSSION WITH DEVELOPER CRUSOE TO LEASE EXPANDED SITE

once again asking democrats to get out ahead of an issue which will prove to be monumentally unpopular in a month or two instead of waffling while they wait for poll data

China about to do to the US what America did to Russia until Trump back off on Ukraine?

The US also has intelligence suggesting that China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components, three people familiar with the matter said, though Beijing has stayed out of the war up until now. China relies heavily on Iranian oil and has reportedly been pressuring Tehran ⁠to allow safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

uh china is preparing to do what now edition.cnn.com/2026/03/06/p...

Nation building 👍

Today is the day more people realize how bad things are going to get

As the nation faces an energy shock from Trump's Iran war, the job market losses 92K jobs in February. Tricky situation for the Fed as its two mandates are in pretty sharp contrast at the moment.

The economic story just changed dramatically.

Payrolls fell -92k in Feb. Jan growth was revised down by -4k to +126k. And Dec revisions subtracted -64k to -17k.

Unemployment rate up a tick to 4.4%.

Recession questions are back on the menu

This is the first monthly unemployment report where the US has lost jobs since December 2020

Meanwhile energy exports in the gulf are shutting down, sending oil easily past $100/barrel very soon

There’s no off-ramp for the war on either side

-92k February payrolls, worst since last October's -140k print...

Worse than the worst War on Terror drone strikes. By innocents killed, worse than multiple of the worst drone strike errors combined.

Point/Counterpoint This War Will Shut Off 20% of the Global Petroleum Supply for A Month and Send the Economy into a Stagflationary Tailspin vs. No It Won’t Published: March 26, 2003

The key question for markets is whether that means the Straits of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the Gulf will continue to be under threat through September. Because that is NOT priced in right now.