a.s.

A 500 millibar anomaly map from Tomer Burg forecasted on Friday. Pink shading in Mexico and the Southwest denotes very strong ridging aloft, while blue in the greater Northwest denotes unusual roughing for this time of year. Enhanced southwest flow between these features will bring high impact fire weather to the Great Basin, Rockies and Southwest this week.

The hot-dry-windy index for a point near Grand Junction, Colorado, shows 6 days of conditions that are above the 95th percentile for this tile of year.

Brutal week ahead for fires in Nevada and the Four Corners. Enhanced flow between record ridging in the Southwest and a trough over the Northwest will bring 4-6 days of hot-dry-windy conditions to an area with multiple notable fires. Winds Thursday-Friday may not allow for aerial firefighting. 🔥

Purpleair map showing air quality across North America. Purples are the worst, green is good. Chicago’s air quality is not as bad as it is in Saskatchewan and the Northwest Territories.

Probably just for large cities. It is worse near the fires.

FEMA denies some assistance for three Kentucky counties; Beshear will appeal • Kentucky Lantern FEMA has denied some assistance for Kentucky counties, but the Beshear administration will appeal the decisions.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has denied some assistance for Kentucky counties affected by severe storms and tornadoes earlier this year, but the Beshear administration plans to appeal the decisions.

@mckennahorsley.bsky.social
kentuckylantern.com/briefs/fema-...

A tower in Boise with the emblem for the National Interagency Fire Center on it.

My office for the next two weeks. See y’all on the other side. 🔥

A ship passing a little east of #93L’s center also is recording MSLP down to ~1012mb & falling.

The initial request was for a 27% cut to NOAA, which is reduced to 6% in this outline. Not sure on the details regarding OAR/distribution of the cuts.

This could impact some of the models at 18/00Z with a better view of what’s offshore.

KMLB radar is back in service and reveals a lopsided low pressure system offshore with some curved band features developing.

Good news! MLB just came back into service. Crisis averted. It’s gong to have the best view of the developing system.

Hey neighbors – learn why NOAA is critical to all of us NOAA mini quilt, made from a NOAA Teacher at Sea Alumni bandana. Quilt measures 24 inches by 24 inches and was completed June 4, 2025. The U.S. federal agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric…

Using my own personal stories and journey with NOAA to help my neighbors understand why and how NOAA matters to everyone, not just to scientists and researchers. It's a little front door science - with a quilt. 🌊 #QuiltSky

The east coast disturbance has been looking decent this morning, with a weak circulation apparent and widespread convection. Some notable NNE shear keeping the center on the edge of the convection. We'll have to watch its progress.

Total estimated emissions from Canadian #wildfires continue to increase rapidly with 2025 already 3rd highest year, after 2023 & 2024, as of 13 July. #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS data based on MODIS🛰️ active fire obs ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int

East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming - Communications Earth & Environment Restrictions of atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions in East Asia have contributed to the observed global surface warming acceleration since 2010, according to Earth System Model simulations is...

Article here: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Unfortunate time for two key radar sites to be down. JAX scheduled to be up Tuesday, and MLB has no ETR.

The elevated precipitable water over Florida this week will certainly increase the flash flood threat. Though tropical development may still be lacking until after the disturbance crosses over the state, it's going to be the area to watch over the next few days.

The historic lodge at the North Rim just burned. I’m gutted.

Passionflower bee having an afternoon snack.

10 years ago today, Sandra Bland was killed. Say her name.

Rest in Power, soror 💙💛🐩

At least 30 killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza as war deaths top 58,000, officials say At least six children were killed in an Israeli strike on a water collection point. The Israeli military blamed a technical error which made its munition fall "dozens of meters from the target".

At least 31 Palestinians were fatally shot on their way to an aid distribution site in the Gaza Strip on Saturday, while Israeli airstrikes killed at least 28 Palestinians.

NWS forecasted rainfall through Friday morning shows totals exceeding 3-5” over most of the Florida peninsula.

In the meantime it should bring some drought relief to Florida, at the cost of likely flash flooding. Totals through early Friday there could reach five to locally 10”+.

NWS just issued a flash flood warning for Kerr county. Ugh

When you go straight to the disaster after spending the week on a bender at the club.

*state

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:<br>A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days <br>offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions <br>could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of <br>this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally <br>westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and <br>north-central portion of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy <br>rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and <br>southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Papin/Mahoney<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Sat, 12 Jul 2025 17:30:58 UTC
Additional Details Here.

“Natural” disaster

Can’t wait to see the paper trail on this since many of the camp’s patrons are lawmakers.

As horrible as the Guadeloupe River flash flood was, it was an isolated small scale event.

FEMA couldn’t even handle that.

Imagine the call volume that’ll be generated (and not answered) when a major hurricane hits a populated area, possibly just weeks from now.

U.S. rocked by four 1-in-1,000-year storms in less than a week Climate change is making severe storms both more common and more intense.

“Any one of these intense rainfall events has a low chance of occurring in a given year, so to see events that are historic and record-breaking in multiple parts of the country over the course of one week is even more alarming."

More from @nbcnews.com ⤵️ www.nbcnews.com/science/clim...