Dallin Overstreet

The Trump admin wants to push the idea that immigrants are “draining” welfare programs.

According to the Census SIPP survey, immigrants use these programs at similar rates to the native born population.

polimetrics.substack.com/p/no-most-im...

Who actually controls your city’s budget? Many cities look identical on paper but operate completely different.

Revenue structure determines autonomy, land use, and your city’s fiscal future. The hidden architecture shapes everything else.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...

The Tariff Winners and Losers: A State-by-State Analysis Series on Tariffs

Who benefits from tariffs? And who gets hurt?

Come read about it here!

open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...

As deportation fears rise, immigrant parents ask: Who cares for my kids? More parents — from the undocumented to U.S. citizens — are rushing to make temporary guardianship arrangements, lawyers said.

Why are we doing this to people? This is horrible.

Parents shouldn’t have to be worried about being kidnapped and unable to take care of their own kids. Kids shouldn’t have to live with that fear either.

www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...

I’m an American relying on food stamps. This country has turned us into lab rats — Guardian US I’m one of 41 million people who need Snap to make ends meet. For weeks, the administration has turned our survival into a game: will they eat, or won’t they?

This was a really good read for understanding how people suffering from the uncertainty around SNAP and the shutdown feel.

We need stronger social safety nets at the state and local level. Ones that can’t be commandeered by politicians with bad intentions.

apple.news/A44ATWR6zSW-...

We should get more strategic in the ways we are slowing the spread of 287(g) agreements. With the financial incentives rolled out in October, it’s likely only a matter of time before a new wave of state and local agencies sign on.

polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...

About 40% of SNAP recipients are children under 18! I don’t think there’s any justification under any circumstances to purposefully cut food to children.

polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...

It is inhumane to withhold 2,500,000,000 meals to Americans over the next month.

About 40% of those meals would go to children under 18. I don’t think anyone should be comfortable with withholding food from kids.

polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-hidden...

Thanks, I appreciate it!

While counties with large metro areas in CA and AZ have higher total counts of SNAP participants, rural counties tend to have higher percentages of their population participating in the program.

#snap #shutdown

polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...

It is not true at all that immigrants are putting an excessive strain on the SNAP program.

About 90% of SNAP recipients are US-born citizens, with another 5% being naturalized US citizens.

White people make up 35% of participants.

Read more here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/who-actual...

#snap

California’s unemployment insurance program is still in debt from pandemic era loans, causing employer UI payroll taxes to be higher than what is normal.

How solvent is your state’s program?

polimetrics.substack.com/p/americas-l...

#recession #taxes #unemployment

When the federal government shut down at the start of October, the Trump administration promised it would start cutting “Democrat programs”.

Learn which grants and congressional districts have been hit hardest!

polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...

Proposition 409 Analysis Property Tax Increase in Maricopa County, Arizona

Voting in Maricopa County, AZ?

Prop 409 adds about a $25/yr tax to the median priced home in the county.

Provocative roadside signs don’t give you the data you need. Make an informed decision and use my tax estimate calculator for your home!

polimetrics.substack.com/p/propositio...

The Politics and Demographics Behind Trump’s Funding Cuts Who Really Got Hit?

Remember when Trump said they’d be cutting Democrats programs during the shutdown?

Well… he has been! The @nytimes released data showing the districts affected by the cuts, but not the voting margins or demographics affected.

Check out my analysis!

polimetrics.substack.com/p/the-politi...

Unemployment Claims and Google Search Trends Week Ending October 25, 2025 (Estimated)

Fed gov shutdown = no labor data?

Google searches for unemployment benefits track closely with continued claims and can fill the gap.

Recent uptick in searches likely reflects federal layoffs/furloughs but could signal broader market impact.

Full analysis: polimetrics.substack.com/p/unemployme...

Where 287(g) Agreements Spread Next: Testing the Fiscal Stress Hypothesis Policy Diffusion - Pt 4/4

Curious how local law enforcement decide to make agreements with ICE? Check out my latest post on policy diffusion!

Neighboring counties opting in is the biggest predictor, with high debt to revenue ratios and demographics influencing as well!

polimetrics.substack.com/p/where-287g...

What drives rapid policy adoption?

Localities copying neighbors

Learning from peers’ experience

State mandates + federal $ making refusal nearly impossible

ICE 287g in 2025: From 135→1,000 agreements in 9 months

Latest in my policy diffusion series:

polimetrics.substack.com/p/how-carrot...

ICE 287(g) agreements grew 8x in 9 months, but they didn’t spread randomly.

Counties copy their neighbors. When one sheriff signs, nearby counties follow suit. The maps show it clearly: wave after wave of regional clusters.

Read the full analysis here: polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-th...

Since Job Openings peaked in 2022, we’ve had a steady decline to current levels at around pre-pandemic era levels.

Hiring rates are currently below where they were prior to the pandemic and just about equal to the monthly hiring rate for April 2020.

polimetrics.substack.com/p/job-openin...

The agent admits he treats immigrants like "they're animals" and that he tells his kids that they are animals "all the time"

Appalling, appalling video. I genuinely think the NYPD should investigate for assault. There was no call at all for level of violence. She perhaps brushed him with her hands but she was not posing a threat at all.

Interesting YoY action on growth in prices paid by US businesses (input prices) and prices they charge consumers (output prices)!

Price growth has been increasing since late April/early May, with a dip in July before resuming. This actually lines up with increases/dips in effective tariff rates.

The Trump administration instructed federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs if the government shuts down Oct. 1, after federal funding runs out. https://wapo.st/48zk5qN

There’s a lot of variation across the country in terms of how prepared states are for the next recession with their unemployment insurance programs.

Some states still owe the federal government on their loans taken out during the pandemic!

open.substack.com/pub/polimetr...

Consumer sentiment has cratered to recession levels while actual inflation remains low. What gives?

An expectations gap: Americans expect 4.8% inflation, but actual inflation is just 2.9%.

The culprit? Tariff anxiety vs. messy implementation reality.

polimetrics.substack.com/p/consumer-s...

a woman is holding a microphone and saying and i feel god in this chili 's tonight ALT: a woman is holding a microphone and saying and i feel god in this chili 's tonight

Wow, who is he saying this to?

Love seeing all my Christian friends on Facebook talking about feeling the Holy Spirit at this thing and then seeing clips like this.

Honestly, I think that may be the worst part of it.

Horrible stuff is happening and they don’t care.

We gotta multitask. I watched my Cardinals blow it today AND wrote a blog post on inflation and consumer sentiment data lol.

Skattebo!!!

This guy just doesn’t go down, doesn’t matter who’s trying to tackle him!