Jason Weeden

Reconciling the Sex Recession Debate: Detection, Measurement, and Mechanism: https://osf.io/jcdbm

The Basics of U.S. Fertility A big-picture look at large-scale patterns across cohorts, current trends, and drivers of individual differences.

A big-picture look at large-scale fertility patterns across U.S. cohorts, current trends, and drivers of individual differences.
chartyarps.substack.com/p/the-basics...

YouTube video by Evolutionary Psychology (The Podcast) Belief with Dan Williams

This week we talk to Dan Williams about belief. Is it veridical or social or both or neither?

youtu.be/vBzPtPNbcz8

www.podbean.com/ew/pb-ehzhx-...

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...

Recent U.S. Fertility Trends Age, education, marriage, and childbearing in the 21st century

I look at how recent trends in fertility relate to shifts in education and marriage at different ages.

open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

Extreme views are heavily over-represented on social media

Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism www.ft.com/content/9251... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

YouTube video by Bamboo Books – Concise Summaries The Hidden Agenda Of The Political Mind - Jason Weeden, Robert Kurzban | Book Summary

I don't know who produced this or what model they used, but this is an unsettlingly good AI summary of my book. It's not perfect, but it's hard to imagine that many human undergrads could do a better job.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DBu...

🚨🚨🚨 The Cooperative Election Study's 2024 vote validation data is now available!
Microdata: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

Or easy interactive analysis of the data on...
vote choice: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
demographics of voters: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/votercomp/

Some strategic functions of religious belief and unbelief A quick sketch of a cynical take

Thoughts on why some claim God’s authority while others deny the existence of Big Gods.
chartyarps.substack.com/p/some-strat...

Offspring Surviving to Adulthood in the U.S. since the 1800s An estimate of both levels and distributions of surviving offspring over time.

An estimate of both levels and distributions of surviving offspring over time.
open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) NPORS is an annual survey of U.S. adults conducted by the Pew Research Center used to to produce benchmark estimates for several topics.

Do you use our NPORS survey to weigh your data? Our 2025 numbers are out now. www.pewresearch.org/...

U.S. Fertility Since the 1800s A look at both levels and distributions of childbearing over time.

A look at both levels and distributions of fertility over time.
open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

Strategic flexibility with evolved goals-and-hints Some early thoughts on integrating lessons from neural networks into evolutionary psychology

Baumard, Andre, and colleagues are really firing on all cylinders these days -- super impressive. A suggested next step: The role of developmental neuroscience here needs to be made more explicit. I'm far from an expert, but here's an attempt to nudge that:
chartyarps.substack.com/p/strategic-...

Reconciling Our Three Traditions: Human Behavioral Ecology, Evolutionary Psychology, and Cultural Evolution - HBES – by Nicolas Baumard & Jean-Baptiste André The evolutionary social sciences are grounded in the idea that evolutionary theory provides a unified framework to explain human behavior, including social n...

Nicolas Baumard & Jean-Baptiste Andre’s “ecological view of culture” provides an exciting new perspective that links Behavioral Ecology, Evolutionary Psychology, & Cultural Evolution. Read more in their HBES blog post: www.hbes.com/reconciling-...

Ahh, well that explains it!

Nat. Survey of Fam. Growth is showing similar trends -- recent large declines in fertility expectations for young women and smaller-but-still-pretty-big declines for men. I was suspicious about the extent of the drop NSFG was showing, especially the youngest ages, but I'm starting to believe it.

Real-Life Differences between Harris and Trump Voters A look at some of the features that drove the 2024 U.S. coalitions

I discuss the most impactful frequently measured demographics driving the 2024 presidential electorate.
open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

Age, race, and gender in the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections I combine the major available surveys (AP VoteCast, CES, Edison exit polls, and ANES)

AP VoteCast, Cooperative Election Studies, and Edison exit polls each has a dramatically different take on what happened with young White men in 2024.

open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

The Demographics of the Two-Party Vote in 2024 Age, gender, race, education, income, religion, sexual orientation, guns, and urban/rural

I combined the 2024 AP VoteCast and Cooperative Election Study samples to look at the role of various demographic gaps.
open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of reason-giving on voter attitudes in UK politics, examining public preferences and the implications for democratic processes.

NEW -

Does Reason-Giving Affect Political Attitudes? - cup.org/4lMuN1x

"I find that reason-giving has very limited effects on the constraint, stability, or polarization of the public’s political attitudes"

- Jack Blumenau

#OpenAccess

Around the World, Many People Are Leaving Their Childhood Religions In many places surveyed, 20% or more of all adults have left their childhood religious group. Christianity and Buddhism have had especially large losses. Pew Research Center.

Excited to share a new Pew Research Center report I led on "religious switching" in 36 countries around the world!

pewrsr.ch/4hK1ucL

A few key takeaways below! 👇

1/n

The complex changes in turnout from election to election Modelling the big picture of how voters have shifted in recent presidential elections

Here's my attempt to fit CES/ANES/GSS data regarding turnout patterns onto the known popular vote in recent presidential elections.

open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

Decline of Christianity in the U.S. Has Slowed, May Have Leveled Off After years of decline, the U.S. Christian share now shows signs of leveling off. The new Religious Landscape Study explores trends in identity, beliefs and practices. Pew Research Center.

NEW: The third-ever Religious Landscape Study, the single largest survey done by Pew Research Center (n=36,908)

Survey provides detailed information about the religious composition of the United States at the national, state and metro level. Dive in:

Our research on Need for Chaos was focused on how some voters wanted to watch the world burn: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

With DOGE it now seems to be official government strategy from Trump & Musk

But the goal seems the same: Burning down existing structures for selfish status gain

The highest-impact demographic splits in the 2024 ANES pre-election data Race, religion, sexual orientation, education, guns, and church

The highest-impact demographic splits in the 2024 ANES pre-election data: race, religion, sexual orientation, education, guns, and church. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

Every time I see this I wonder why most all the writing I see is on the unique politics and circumstance of young men and not on what's going on for young women. The variation is so much more interesting to explain!

A preliminary look at preliminary 2024 ANES pre-election data It’s all very preliminary.

Taking a look at the new ANES data. chartyarps.substack.com/p/a-prelimin...

Splitting the 2020 presidential electorate into 81 demographic groups And putting them on a single chart.

Splitting the 2020 presidential electorate into 81 demographic groups, and putting them on a single chart. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

75 Years of Shifting Party Coalitions Subtle realignments and demographic change

In getting ready to digest new data on the 2024 election, I take a look at the major ways in which the demographics of presidential voting have changed since the mid-20th century. chartyarps.substack.com/p/75-years-o...

How many kids will college women likely end up having? Impacts of religiosity, sociosexuality, and race.

In this one, I look at how info at age 21 predicts number of children at age 39 for typical college-educated women in the NYLSY97 sample.
open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...

Strategic flexibility with evolved goals-and-hints Some early thoughts on integrating lessons from neural networks into evolutionary psychology

Some early thoughts on integrating lessons from neural networks into evolutionary psychology. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...