Wolfram Lacher

The war on Iran likely brings a new oil price shock and windfall profits.

So, who stands to win?

Our research shows: Last time around (2022), the US reaped the largest fossil fuel profits of any country ($377bn). 50% went to the top 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵

Strike on Iranian primary school kills 148, authorities say Girls’ education facility hit as US and Israel launch joint military operation

The death of possibly more than 100 little girls in a primary school. How is that not a central news story today across all serious outlets?
And thank you, FT, for being one of only a few newsrooms driving attention to what happened there.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Der Preis für den Cyberdome Deutschland will sich gegen digitale Angriffe wappnen, baut dabei auf eine vertiefte Partnerschaft mit Israel – und setzt sich gleich mehreren Risiken aus.

Ich empfehle diese hervorragend recherchierte Analyse zum dt. Cyber- und Sicherheispakt mit Israel. Die aktuelle Haltung von Merz & Co. zum Krieg gg Iran ist ein Vorgeschmack auf strategische Abhängigkeit in Sicherheitsbelangen.

magazin.zenith.me/de/wirtschaf...

The Man Who Would Be King Ali Shamkhani and Iran’s Security-Managed Transition

Fascinating insight from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, crucial relevance for what comes next in Iran:

The Man Who Would Be King
open.substack.com/pub/irananal...

Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so – European Council on Foreign Relations As the conflict threatens to escalate, European governments must make an assertive case for diplomacy and prepare for humanitarian catastrophe

New @ecfr.eu: Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so, by Ellie Geranmayeh with a strong list of immediate action for Europeans who need to quickly snap out of passivity & acceptance of this new regional conflict ecfr.eu/article/trum...

Not The Onion

Netanyahu Calls Iran Strikes Necessary To Prevent War He Just Started

Netanyahu Calls Iran Strikes Necessary To Prevent War He Just Started

"The developments in Iran"

Zitat: „Die Verletzung der UN-Charta liegt hier so offen zutage, wie es deutlicher kaum sein könnte.“

Die USA und Israel haben mit einem Militärangriff auf den Iran begonnen.

MARKO MILANOVIĆ zeigt, warum sich die Militärschläge nicht als Selbstverteidigung nach Art. 51 der UN-Charta rechtfertigen lassen und offenkundig gegen das Völkerrecht verstoßen.

verfassungsblog.de/warum-der-er...

Jetzt wird es interessant:

Welches deutsche Medium, welcher deutsche Journalist wird die neuen völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffe auf Iran als solche bezeichnen, sowohl im Text als auch in der Titelzeile?

Welche Medien werden hingegen die Sprache des völkerrechtswidrig Angreifenden 1:1 stenographieren?

Liebe Medien, ist es so schwer? "Präventivschlag auf Iran" ist die Kriegsbegründung der Angreifer als Überschrift. Im Wort "präventiv" steckt die Rechtfertigung bereits drin. Journalismus wäre, genau das kenntlich zu machen (z.B. mit Anführungszeichen) oder zu hinterfragen, statt es zu übernehmen.

„Präventivschlag“

How a Call From Trump Ignited a Bitter Feud Between Two U.S. Allies

News from the stable genius

Netflix Backs Out of Bid for Warner Bros., Paving Way for an Ellison Takeover

The richest man owns X.

The second and third richest men control Google.

The fourth richest man owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

The fifth richest man owns The Washington Post.

And now the sixth richest could soon take over both Paramount and Warner Bros.

See the problem here?

TraCe Highlight Publication: The internationalization of intrastate conflict: A network perspective on empirical evidence and theoretical explanations, in Cooperation and Conflict, forthcoming

TraCe Highlight Publication: In this paper, TraCe researchers from Goethe University and PRIF introduce a network-based framework to conceptualize the internationalization of intrastate armed conflict. Empirically, they show that intrastate conflicts have indeed become more internationalized in recent years and identify and evaluate likely drivers of this trend. A preprint version of the forthcoming paper has been published as TraCe Working Paper No. 7.

TraCe Highlight Publication: Read more on our website.

📣 Explore the TraCe publication highlights: In @coco-journal.bsky.social, Frederik Schissler, @hannapfeifer.bsky.social, Constantin Ruhe, @reginesonja.bsky.social & Jonas Wolff take a closer look at the trend of internationalized intrastate armed conflicts.
🔗 www.trace-center.de/en/publicati...

READ THIS! Superb article from @3arabawy.substack.com on the Sudanese army's colonial origins. The army survives by reproducing the racialized fragmentations pioneered by the colonial state. One of the best accounts of the army I've ever read! + 3arabawy.substack.com/p/egypt-empire

Freue mich auf den Austausch

Armed Group Consolidation: Charting a Field of Inquiry The phenomenon of armed group fragmentation has given rise to substantial research. Consolidation in previously fragmented conflicts has attracted far less attention. This article charts armed grou...

While armed group fragmentation dominates research, consolidation is overlooked. @wlacher.bsky.social journal article maps "armed group consolidation" and proposes a new field of inquiry. Read the full article here 👇
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Magnificent job opportunity

Trennung von Festival-Chefin Tuttle zeichnet sich ab Ablösung, freiwilliger Rückzug oder einvernehmliche Trennung? Tricia Tuttles Tage als Berlinale-Chefin sind offenbar gezählt. Am Donnerstagmorgen findet eine außerordentliche Sitzung zur Neuausrichtun...

Mittlerweile völlig normal in deutschen Medien: Palästinenser, die eine Kufiya tragen oder eine palästinensische Flagge zeigen, werden als "Israel-Hasser" bezeichnet. So auch heute in der @rbb24.de Abendschau. Warum?

www.rbb24.de/kultur/berli...

This Must Be The Podcast: Mohammed Hafez In a provocative new article in the Middle East Journal, Mohammed Hafez argues that all threads of the Islamist project have failed, a collective exhaustion as complete as the post-1967 death of the p...

In 1994 Olivier Roy proclaimed the failure of political Islam. That proved premature. Now Mohammed Hafez says Islamism has reached the end of its road to nowhere. Will that prediction fare better? Fascinating conversation and additional thoughts.

abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/this-must-be...

Armed Group Consolidation: Charting a Field of Inquiry The phenomenon of armed group fragmentation has given rise to substantial research. Consolidation in previously fragmented conflicts has attracted far less attention. This article charts armed grou...

Has an armed group recently been consolidating control in a patchworked territory near you? Here's an attempt to think through this phenomenon.

The other dimension of Emirati-Saudi rivalry around the Red Sea The economic interests that the two Gulf monarchies have built in countries on the other side of the Red Sea will almost certainly outlive their current rivalry

By @yezidsayigh.bsky.social

Secret Marriages and Serial Divorce in Mauritania In the nation’s rapidly growing cities, intimacy, faith and money are being renegotiated

NEW: Secret marriages and serial divorce reveal how faith and intimacy are being renegotiated in Mauritania’s rapidly growing cities, write Josef Skrdlik and Oliver Dunn

newlinesmag.com/reportage/se...

Wenn ihr heute etwas lest, lasst es diesen Text sein. Bis zum letzten Wort.

Und dann gilt es, Folgendes zu hinterfragen: Weshalb findet sich in deutschen Leitmedien kein kontinuierlicher Journalismus, der staatliche Denunzierungskampagnen gegen die global wichtigsten Hilfsorganisationen analysiert?

The demise of conflict studies- Peacekeeping, Peacebuilding and Human Rights | BISA - Peacekeeping, Peacebuilding and Human Rights Working Group

Looking forward to this:

On 10 March, @yguichaoua.bsky.social and I will be discussing our @dissentmag.bsky.social essay on "The demise of conflict studies" with @christinecheng.bsky.social at this @mybisa.bsky.social online seminar - register here:

This looks interesting

Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey This first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip shows that violent deaths have substantially exceeded official figures whereas the demographic composition of casualties aligns ...

This new Lancet study would indicate that the death toll in Gaza is actually around 120,000 at minimum, if the undercount rate is similar since January 2025.

Armed Group Consolidation: Charting a Field of Inquiry The phenomenon of armed group fragmentation has given rise to substantial research. Consolidation in previously fragmented conflicts has attracted far less attention. This article charts armed grou...

Has an armed group recently been consolidating control in a patchworked territory near you? Here's an attempt to think through this phenomenon.

UN-Menschenrechtsbüro: Vereinte Nationen fordern EU auf, Rückführungen nach Libyen zu stoppen Die UN dokumentieren in einem Bericht schwere Menschenrechtsverletzungen in Libyen. Auch die EU wird kritisiert – für ihre Zusammenarbeit mit libyschen Akteuren.

Vereinte Nationen fordern EU auf, Rückführungen nach Libyen zu stoppen