Stats For Bios

Yeah, sounds sensible.

And by shipping I mean... delivering. Sending. Not releasing. Think that was clear.

But I would like to know how much is copilot. I'm not familar with Mac filesystems so I'm not sure how successful I'll be in finding the right folder to check.

Guess it is an obligatory question. But are they shipping full models? Because then they won't update daily which is necessary. I assumed all AI queries were sent back tot he data centres.

Also the number of peaks is very uncertain, and that's even before worrying about model selection.

The mean smooths over the wiggles, so most draws will have more than 5 peaks.

How the fuck is office 365 13GB!? It does the same thing it did 10 years ago. It does the same thing as libre office which is probably like 13kb.

Laptop hard drives aren't particularly getting bigger. But software bloat is. Gimme a 4TB laptop hard drive and you can have your 13GB word processor.

I feel this isn't a very stata thing to do. And I have the way stata creates and retrieves objects. But, the chatgpt output I'm getting is just nonsense. Never runs, doesn't do what it's supposed to etc.

Well I can safely conclude that chatgpt is unable to usefully help me with my stata problem.

I want to:
define a likelihood function
evaluate that likelihood over a grid
plot it

Two factor is just so annoying. Trying to log in to a shared band email address (not something I use weekly). Having to text the old guitarist to get him to 2FA me.

I just want to sign a waiver and have an insecure email address. This is not an important piece of private identity.

CANSSI postdoc w/ Alex Stringer (Waterloo) www.alexstringer.ca and me (McMaster): implementing/exploring Gauss-Hermite quadrature methods in lme4/glmmTMB canssi.ca/wp-content/u... (Alex has shown that Laplace approx is sometimes awful, we'd like to provide alternatives!) canssi.ca/program/dist...

Pure comprehensible input. No English. No "learning".

I've been using dreaming Spanish for a couple of years and think it's great. They just released dreaming French if you're looking to learn.
www.dreaming.com/french

Yeah I've gone down a bit of a google maps rabbit hole! Maybe I'll check the package docs sometime.

A run-down, closed-up venue. Looks pub size.

Sorry this has all got me on a quick nostalgia kick. This is the venue I learned to love live music in (the Freebutt). It got closed down because they built residential houses next to it, people moved in and didn't like the noise. And now it's just nothing. What an absolute waste.

We're the Norf-wards roads, we're the Norf-wards roads, we're the Norf-ward Brigh'on boys.

We're the Sarf-wards roads, we're the Sarf-wards roads, we're the Sarf-wards Brigh'on boys.

Brighton, Brighton by the sea, we are Brighton, Brighton by the sea and we'll viz you up, whoever you may be cause we are Brighton, Brighton by the sea.

What is "up"? At first I thought they must be rotated so that up is the mode. But then Seaford for example isn't. But Brighton just isn't that North/South.

Huh, never thought of Brighton as a grid. The area I grew up in up in, and place I hung out in like the Lanes weren't. Guess lots of Hove and along the seasfront is.

"I’m more likely now to check the weather forecast for night than day." @mothyblackburn.bsky.social in The Jewel Box. This really tickled me for some reason.

Reverse causality of reverse assignment. Maybe you have lasted this long *because* you didn't know about it. It's dangerous.

Yes good point. I definitely prefer to shift (when possible) the covariates such that the intercept is something like the population wide prevalence. Much easier to think about that way. I'm sure there's cases when that doesn't make sense though.

Yeah, you nearly always know which side of 0.5 the probability should be. For most epi work it's obvious that beta < 0.

But just having that N(0, 1.25) is a nice start point to think sensibly from.

Yup I love it to. I know sometime I'll do one that is a fail and it'll be horrible. But so far it's just deeply enjoyable.

Oh wow. Mind blown. #StatsSky

Yeah not sure why I got it so wrong! Coming from UK pounds. It was about 70p a few years ago but back to 50p now. Still, never the 90p I was assuming...

Wow sheets and pages are shit. A) just bad (possibly subjective and that I'm not used to them) and B) really un-interoperable with office.

If libre office can do it I'm sure apple can.

Got back from ASTMH to discover that the Canadian dollar is worth half of what I thought it was! Those beers suddenly feel much less of a burden on my wallet.

Don't apologise for small font on slides, fix it! Streamline sentences, prioritise content and spread over multiple slides.

Sad to have missed this. Lots of great symposia!

- Format didn't promote deep questions. Often questions left till end. Have to squish past people to walk to mic. Mostly short presentations with even shorter Q&A.

Overall, the vibe was fact finding rather than deep science. Not that surprising that it feels different to a stats conference. 3/3