Dr. Katherine Haenschen

It’s all of the above. I don’t have fridge capacity to cool everything before hand. I could keep it all outside for 24 hours on the porch… it’ll be in the 40s. I don’t have coolers and don’t want to have to handle ice bags.

2 or 3 cases of seltzer on the porch overnight will just have to do!

Is seltzer in cans a non-starter? What about spindrift?

Tweeps, what is a non-alcoholic beverage for adults I can serve at room temp at my child’s birthday party this weekend?

(Do people drink room temp LaCroix?)

What if you did it Pardon The Interruption-style where you had a countdown clock on each topic?

It's the intersection with being a Maine RV *and* being in a Dynata panel. I've used that firm. There are valid questions about whether one could weight it to representativeness.

My guess is that some group who wanted to help Fine was looking for a vehicle to wash their money. It's legal, after all. But it's odd, and I wonder why EDW said yes? There must be other seats that are Dem Woman vs. Actually Bad People in the primary and GE.

But what if my dense urban neighborhood contains a surface parking lot and I'm terrified that it might become 103 homes, of which 15 will be subsidized-affordable, within 1 block of a major transit stop? What if I want the parking lot to remain a parking lot?! What then?!

I actually think that tracks given a) prior turnout numbers in Maine general elections, both midterm and prez, which are usually high-turnout, combined with b) the kind of people who get enrolled into a panel survey from firms like Dynata.

I'm 100% serious when I say: In a state with only 1.1M RVs and 330k registered Dems to start, people are gonna get REAL TIRED of taking surveys (and maybe get tired of admitting they're sticking with the Nazi tattoo?)

What's your read on the latter? The Biden/Crockett overlap is obvious, but IMO Jimmy and Bernie don't have a ton in common (other than maybe plain-spoken anti-corruption, maybe anti-establishment?).

Huge E-Day swing in Loving County, was 4-2 Talarico in the Early voting, went 4-0 Crockett on E-Day! Those are raw votes. It has a population of 64 people.

Losing urban centers?! He carried Austin (Travis), San Antonio (Bexar), El Paso, Corpus (Nueces). There are cities in Texas other than Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth.

2026 Texas U.S. Senate Democratic Primary A congresswoman from Dallas and a state representative from Austin face off in the race to be the Democrats’ Senate nominee in the Lone Star state.

it's here but not there, odd

votehub.com/2026_tx_sen_...

Yes, when the Dem primary turnout includes 33% of people with No Primary history it's inclear that a panel is going to capture that.

Frankly that's why (IMO) most of the polling in this race is a hot mess! You'd have to sample the whole file and screen for intent to vote in Dem primary, no?

... Talarico winning Latinos is not a surprise for a number of reasons.

What's interesting here is the low turnout in some of these counties.

who is that?!

yup, I don't think we'll necessarily know tonight.

There's 254 Texas counties, it's a lot to keep track of. As someone who organized down there for 9 years, I am most curious about Bexar (San Antonio, heavily Latino, hotly contested DA Race; Jimmy taught public school there), El Paso, and the RGV generally.

Hays is the southern suburbs of Austin (Travis Co). Williamson (where he flipped a State Rep seat) is northern suburbs of Austin (Travis Co).

2026 Texas U.S. Senate Democratic Primary A congresswoman from Dallas and a state representative from Austin face off in the race to be the Democrats’ Senate nominee in the Lone Star state.

It's the margin AND the turnout:

Talarico nets 73k vote margin out of Travis in Early Vote.
Crockett nets 17k out of Harris (Houston) 👀
Crockett nets 16k out of Tarrant (Fort Worth)
Talarico carries Nueces (Corpus) but turnout low

votehub.com/2026_tx_sen_...

I once managed an appellate court race that spanned...
bastrop bell blanco burnet
caldwell coke concho
fayette hays irion
lampasas lee llano
mcculloch milam mills
(urr i forget some here)
travis williamson

I worked a judicial race one time where the candidates all had to name the ~30 some counties alphabetically. (I heard it so many times I could do it forward and backward.)

(I can still *almost* do it, 16 years later.)

Big night for those of us who can name 50+ Texas counties. (There are 254.)

Anyone who is STILL supporting Platner is both embarrassing themselves and making clear how little they value key constituencies in the Democratic Party.

Seems useful

What is your read on how any of this is impacting the race?

ooh i'd report that one as a phishing attempt to IT just for the heck of it

That's it! I "pre-registered" my Hot Takes on everything else and will release once I know if I was right or wrong and why. Happy voting!

3. Who are the no-primary voters in the Dem Primary breaking for in the Senate race? It's wild to see this! (And it'll definitely shake up down-ballot races for better and for worse, womp womp.)
bsky.app/profile/mcpl...

2. This is more of a comment than a question: Texas isn't really used to competitive statewide *paid media* campaigns (especially *between* Democrats), which has played out in some of the (cough) interpersonal strife I've seen among friends about the Dem senate primary.