Julius Garbe

Sea levels have risen by approximately 228 mm (22.8 cm) since the start of the 20th century.

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Screenshot from polarportal.dk, a website that makes research on the Arctic research conducted by Danish institutions available to the public and researchers. The image shows Greenland in tan and the Greenland Ice Sheet in red and white. The red part indicates melting and covers all except about 20% in the northeast, which is roughly the area higher than 2500 m above Se level. Below the map is a chart that compares 2025 melting to the 1981-2010 average. The average melting peaks in mid-July at about 35%. For the last few days, melting has occurred over roughly 80% of the area of Greenland, with a maximum melt area of 80.6% on 24 July 2025. This is the highest value in our dataset, which starts in 1981.

Melting over 80.6% of the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This is the highest value in our data set, which starts in 1981.

@polarportal.bsky.social

🇦🇶 Antarctica’s coastal zone is changing fast & it matters globally. A new #AntarcticRINGS review paper maps what we know, what we don’t & why it matters for sea-level rise. 🌊

Explore fresh insights, a Quantarctica-friendly data package & all figures as downloadable slides: scar.org/scar-news/cr...

📢PIK is hiring: Earth Resilience Analyst
⁉️postdoc to explore planetary resilience, tipping points & planetary boundaries
🧪 Earth system/climate science
💻 HPC & modeling
📍 Potsdam | Start: 01.09 | Deadline: 20.07
🔗 potsdam.pi-asp.de/bewerber-web...

*** Faktencheck***
In der Generaldebatte im Bundestag sprach Bundeskanzler Friedrich #Merz auch zum Klimaschutz. Er sagte:
"Selbst wenn wir alle morgen klimaneutral wären, würde keine einzige Naturkatastrophe weniger geschehen". Ein Faktencheck.
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The Global Tipping Points Conference 2025. Credit: Jim Wileman / University of Exeter

NEW – Tipping points: Window to avoid irreversible climate impacts is ‘rapidly closing’ | @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org @gsiexeter.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/ECWvN3z

Everyone, don’t fall for that fake story about SMOC reversal; the actual paper says nothing about Southern Ocean overturning circulation or deep water formation.
See John Kennedy’s thread.

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‘Tipping points’ experts issue urgent message to world leaders World leaders must take “immediate, unprecedented action” to prevent devastating climate tipping points, experts say. The Global Tipping Points Conference is taking place in Exeter this week, and almo...

Almost 200 of the delegates at this week's Global Tipping Points Conference in Exeter endorsed a statement calling for world leaders to take “immediate, unprecedented action” to prevent devastating #climate tipping points.

@gsiexeter.bsky.social

news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-e...

Continent-wide mapping shows increasing sensitivity of East Antarctica to meltwater ponding - Nature Climate Change This study provides a continent-wide assessment of surface meltwater area in Antarctica between 2006 and 2021, highlighting recent increases in magnitude and variability in East Antarctica, with indic...

I’m delighted to share that our new paper is now out in @natclimate.nature.com! Our long-term, monthly Antarctic-wide dataset of surface meltwater shows that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is becoming increasingly prone to surface meltwater ponding.

Call for submissions: Global Tipping Points article series in PLOS Climate - Latitude PLOS Climate is collaborating with the Global Tipping Points Conference 2025 on an interdisciplinary article series focusing on tipping points in natural…

Some fascinating discussions at the Global Tipping Points Conference here in Exeter this week! If you work on tipping points- and whether you're at the conference or not- check out our call for submissions!

latitude.plos.org/2025/06/call...

#GlobalTippingPointsConference #GlobalTippingPoints2025

Near Antarctica, Saltier Seas Mean Less Ice, Study Finds Briny warm water is mixing on the surface of the ocean, making sea ice melt faster, a new study found.

Some of the water around Antarctica has been getting saltier, which is making sea ice melt faster, a new study found.

‘It looks more likely with each day we burn fossil fuels’: polar scientist on Antarctic tipping points Despite working on polar science for the British Antarctic Survey for 20 years, Louise Sime finds the magnitude of potential sea-level rise hard to comprehend

‘It looks more likely with each day we burn fossil fuels’: polar scientist on Antarctic tipping points

Louise Sime finds the magnitude of potential sea-level rise painful to comprehend.

My fourth piece in the Guardian series, Tipping Points: On the Edge

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Believe it or not, the usual suspects are trying to sell the little blip at the end of the Antarctic ice loss curve (due to a few strong snowfall events in East Antarctica) as proof that "global warming is a hoax".
It shows once again that "climate skeptics" don't have honest arguments.

Picture of the Italian town of Karthaus

📣 New paper: Where do we want the glaciological
community to be in 2073?
Some context: The Karthaus summer school is an occasion where parts of our research community comes together — In 2023, I was lucky to participate myself and it was the year in which a new workshop was included in the program.

Antarctic ice has grown again – but this does not buck overall melt trend Study shows ice sheet gained mass from 2021 to 2023, due to extreme snowfall that was also an effect of climate crisis

Antarctic ice has grown again – but this does not buck overall melt trend — @theguardian.com

You know those “Antarctica Today” posts I’d put up for a while, showing surface melt extent accross Antarctica for every day of the melt season (Oct - April)?

They relied 100% on this data stream. Take it offline, that goes away completely.

Sea ice extent uses it too.

Assessment of Abrupt Shifts in CMIP6 Models Using Edge Detection Large-scale abrupt shifts are present in most CMIP6 models At higher levels of global warming there is a higher risk of large-scale abrupt shifts in CMIP6 models There is a high diversity in the...

Check out our results on abrupt shifts in climate models: dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025...

We scan the CMIP6 database for abrupt shifts and analyse the results for the subpolar gyre, sea ice, and other subsystems. Already at low levels of global warming there is a risk of large-scale abrupt shifts.

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report. The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.

Our new paper updating key metrics in the IPCC is now out, and the news is grim:

⬆️ Human induced warming now at 1.36C
⬆️ Rate of warming now 0.27C / decade
⬆️ Sharp increase in Earth's energy imbalance
⬇️ Remaining 1.5C carbon budget only 130 GtCO2

essd.copernicus.org/...

⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began.

This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1

New Climate Study Highlights Dire Sea Level Warnings - Inside Climate News To learn about how polar ice sheets melted during an ancient era, scientists examined fossil coral reefs in the tropics.

Recent research suggests that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has an on-off switch that’s sensitive to global temperatures. Human-caused warming is close to tripping the switch, which could raise sea levels by more than expected over the coming decades.

New Climate Study Highlights Dire Sea Level Warnings - Inside Climate News To learn about how polar ice sheets melted during an ancient era, scientists examined fossil coral reefs in the tropics.

One scientist I recently interviewed said every new study that comes out suggests it's more and more likely the West Antarctic Ice Sheet can collapse at warming levels near today's.

In mid-May, temperatures soared in Greenland and Iceland. Climate change made the record-breaking heat about 3°C hotter.

Our latest rapid study is a reminder that cold climate countries are also experiencing unprecedented heat and a warning that it is driving rapid ice loss ☀️🧊

🧵

Great summary of our recent paper about Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping points 👇

Map of deep convection locations across models

One of the most immediate climate tipping point dangers is an abrupt cooling of the subpolar gyre, with major impacts on 🇪🇺 climate possible in the next decades. 🌊
Great how @swinda.bsky.social Falkena et al. use advanced causal inference methods to tease out the mechanisms!
arxiv.org/html/2408.16...

Indeed! Here’s the study this article is based on. In fact, depending on model settings, we find WAIS collapse even without any further warming. The +0.25°C is kind of an upper bound.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet near tipping point – the next few years are critical | Polar Journal The West Antarctic Ice Sheet could reach its tipping point with only minimal additional ocean warming – with long-term consequences for global sea levels. But a small window of time remains to take co...

🌡️🧊 The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may already be in overshoot.
A new study shows it could collapse irreversibly with just 0.25 °C more ocean warming – raising global sea levels by around 4 meters. The next few years are critical.

polarjournal.net/west-antarct...

If we limit warming to the Paris Climate Agreement of 1.5ºC, then we don't have to worry about dangerous levels of sea-level rise, right? Actually, no. Our research suggests that this is too warm. 🧵 1/n phys.org/news/2025-05...

This is not the actual cover of Nature, just shown here for illustrative purposes. We did submit this figure for consideration for their cover. Print run in two weeks, we'll know by then if it gets used.

Out today in Nature, our paper on the drivers of the record 2023 summer heating of the North Atlantic. Temperatures warmed to record levels in just a few months. The impacts on climate & ecosystems were severe. A thread on how this work came about and what we found.👇👇🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss - Communications Earth & Environment The Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits hysteresis and irreversible ice loss, with West Antarctic collapse contributing over 4 m of sea-level rise even under minimal additional warming, according to 800,000-...

New research: West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse contributes over 4 m sea-level rise with little (0.25 °C) or even no ocean warming above present

#climatecrisis
www.nature.com/articles/s43...