Orlando J. Pérez

2/ Migration is recast as an existential threat. The document declares “the era of mass migration is over” and elevates border control to the core of national security. That logic underpins deals that outsource detention, asylum processing, and enforcement to regional partners.

1/ Democracy barely figures in the new National Security Strategy. The "#Trump Corollary" formalizes a sphere-of-influence order in the Americas, built on enforcement rather than institutions. What counts is coercive capacity and alignment. whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

Is Trump about to go to war with Venezuela? Podcast Episode · ABC News Daily · 04/12/2025 · 16m

Is Trump about to go to war with #Venezuela?

I told the @abcnewsaustralia.bsky.social

"That gap between rhetoric and reality is where bad decisions get made."

Listen to the rest 👇

podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/i...

Alleged Narco President Hires GOP Lobbyists to Sing His Praises in Washington Despite the mounting evidence against Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, Republican legislators have yet to drop their support for him.

To understand why #Trump is pardoning @JuanOrlandoH, follow the $: “he turned to friends of Rubio for help … signed a deal with lobbying firm BGR Group to buttress his image as a dedicated ally and an implacable foe of organized crime.” www.vice.com/en/article/a...

So Trump is getting “tough” on drug trafficking by pardoning a convicted drug trafficker, former president of #Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández. Pardon a right-wing trafficker & topple a left-wing one, seems to be the policy! 🙄😓

Honduras is not Venezuela — but Washington shouldn’t get this wrong Honduras is a fragile democracy. A smart U.S. diplomacy is required as the presidential election approach

I write in @dallasmorningnews.bsky.social, “If Washington wants to help #Honduras avoid the fate of its authoritarian neighbors, it must act with clarity, consistency and restraint.” None of which the Trump adminitration is known for. www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

Opinion | I’m in Venezuela. This Is the True Cost of Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy.

“For all the deadly weapons floating off the coast, it seems increasingly clear that all the Trump administration’s push for regime change in #Venezuela has done so far is create a potentially disastrous political trap.” www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/o...

The Day After: What Successful Regime Change in Venezuela Would Really Take What if the “counternarcotics” strikes against boats suspected of moving drugs aren’t really about cocaine at all, but about toppling Venezuelan President

Regime change in #Venezuela isn’t a “weekend mission.” Any use of force has to reckon with coup-proofed security services, regional politics, and the costs of “the day after,” not just #Maduro. I unpack the military & political realities, @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...

Thousands protest crime and corruption in Mexico City as ‘Gen Z’ protests gain momentum The demonstration was mostly peaceful but ended with some young people clashing with the police.

From Nepal to Mexico City, Gen Z keeps emerging as the real opposition: organized, furious, and unwilling to treat corruption and violence as background noise. Parties can try to ride this wave, but they did not create it and may not be able to control it.
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...

It seems it’s dawning on some in DC that this #Venezuela adventure is more complex & the politics more difficult than saying: Maduro=bad; Machado=good; Tomahawks=coup->💨 democracy! @POTUS wanted to blow sh*t up, get a quick win & move on.The minute things got complicated he got cold feet. 🤷🏻‍♂️

With Venezuela, Trump poised to make mistake of epic proportions News that the administration may greenlight attacks inside the country, even remove Maduro, is already causing panic. It should.

Thanks @QuincyInst @RStatecraft for publishing my piece on the risks of escalation in #Venezuela. “A wiser approach for Washington is to prioritize intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation with allies — rather than rely on … kinetic strikes.”
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-venezu...

Why Blowing Up Venezuelan Boats Won’t Stop the Flow of Drugs www.nytimes.com/interactive/... I said something similar a few weeks ago! 🤔

I wrote in The Dallas Morning News: “Turning the armed forces toward specific domestic political targets breaches a core norm: an apolitical military. Latin American history is clear. Internal security missions make generals central actors in domestic governance.”
www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm...

Do “normies” watch late night TV?

Panama in China-US Strategic Competition Insights from Orlando J. Pérez.

Panama in China-US Strategic Competition thediplomat.com/2025/09/pana... "Suppose Panama can show that a sovereignty-first, rules-based posture unlocks U.S. and allied capital without foreclosing commercial ties to China."

Opinion | Brazil Just Succeeded Where America Failed

Brazil Just Succeeded Where America Failed www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/o... “With all its flaws, Brazilian democracy is healthier today than America’s. Keenly aware of their country’s authoritarian past, Brazil’s judicial and political authorities did not take democracy for granted.”

more than a decade of public scholarship has taught me that the moments when it's most tempting to react strongly and quickly are the ones when it's most useful to step back, seek context, and force yourself to think slowly. i don't always follow it, but those are my guidelines for myself.

Only Trump can make John Bolton seem sympathetic! 🙄

And Mulino has already made his strategic decision: US is the preferred partner…🤷🏻‍♂️

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9/ These Latin American examples show the pitfalls of turning soldiers into policemen. They often blur institutional boundaries, weaken civilian policing, and chip away at democratic norms.

8/ Effectiveness vs. legitimacy: Militarization can reduce visible crime in the short term but often degrades investigative capacity and police professionalism, which harms long-run security. #Mexico’s expansion of military roles beyond security further weakens civilian institutions.

7/ Rule-of-law trade-offs: States of exception or NIAC (non-international armed conflict) labels, as declared in #Ecuador, can lower rights protections and judicial scrutiny.

6/ In #ElSalvador, sustained militarized policing consolidates executive dominance, sidelines judicial oversight, and habituates the armed forces and police to extraordinary powers.

5/ Outcomes on crime are mixed; the governance trade-offs are clearer. #Mexico’s security policy under #AMLO normalized military roles far beyond policing, concentrating budgets and administrative tasks in the armed forces and weakening civilian agencies.

4/ Repeated internal missions expand military leverage over civilians. #Brazil’s GLO (Garantia da Lei e da Ordem) gives the presidency a legal on-ramp to grant soldiers temporary police powers. While GLO should be “episodic.” The practice has become a feature of Brazilian democracy.

3/ Militarized policing is politically attractive yet institutionally costly. Publics often trust armies more than police, which tempts executives to deploy soldiers for street crime and order maintenance. That choice tends to raise the risk of abuses, blur accountability, and slow police reform.

The Generals’ Labyrinth: Crime and the Military in Mexico | International Crisis Group Mexico’s outgoing president has deployed more soldiers than ever to fight crime. But levels of violence remain high. His successor should set limits to the military’s role in public safety while worki...

2/ Domestic deployments of military forces risk undermining civilian control and normalizing the use of force in everyday governance. Latin America provides plenty of evidence for the corrosive effect of militarizing public security. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

1/ The @deptofdefense.govmirrors.com is weighing a “Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force.” 600 Guard troops split between Alabama and Arizona, deployable in one hour. 🧵https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/

One thing that didn't make it into today's piece:

Washington, DC already has by far the highest number of law enforcement officers per capita of any city of 250k+.