Raphael Cunha

This is an interesting paper.

I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.

"The Credibility Revolution in Political Science"

osf.io/preprints/so...

🤦🏻‍♂️

The Making of International Status Abstract. With great power rivalry on the rise again, many worry that struggles for status among states could lead to war. As a growing consensus indicates

Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?

My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!

📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560

This is wild!

Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.

🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨

We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social

Any questions, please reach out to me

📣 Please share! 📣

jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.

This is a wonderful book! So happy to see this out! Congrats @mduque.bsky.social

AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans

Is this what hell is like?

AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans

Is this what hell is like?

📣Call for papers now open for our annual Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. Rome🔥, May 28-29, 2026.

More details below👇

A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain

This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Sandra Sequeira (LSE) on "Financial Security, Climate Shocks, and Social Cohesion".

Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.

GitHub - hadley/genzplyr: dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap dplyr but make it bussin fr fr no cap. Contribute to hadley/genzplyr development by creating an account on GitHub.

Do you teach #rstats? Do your students complain about how lame and old-fashioned dplyr is? Don't worry: I have the solution for you: github.com/hadley/genzp....

genzplyr is dplyr, but bussin fr fr no cap.

Comparing Experimental and Nonexperimental Methods: What Lessons Have We Learned Four Decades after LaLonde (1986)? (Fall 2025) - In 1986, Robert LaLonde published an article comparing nonexperimental estimates to experimental benchmarks (LaLonde 1986). He concluded that the nonexperimental methods at the time coul...

An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

EPSS 2026 submissions FAQ - EPSS Submissions are coming in fast for Belfast 2026 and so are your questions about submissions. Here are answers to the most common questions: Where do I go to submit? For panel submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/events/75765/symposia/create For paper submission: https://app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266/submissions/new? How many papers can I submit? We put a constraint of max one presentation per person. This does …

Please share!: Last week to apply for @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026

really good news is that there's been an amazing response to the call for papers already; now very excited for this meeting

⬇️ We put together a quick FAQ on Qs that have come up on submitting: epssnet.org/conferences/...

🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨

Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

But this is more about Petrobras being used by the government to extract bribes from private contractors, then Petrobras instrumentally bribing/lobbying the government for its own interests.

The Petrolão scandal itself was more instrumental in bringing down Dilma (though ultimately she was not charged for it in her impeachment, but for other things) than Lula.

The charge on which he was arrested (and then dropped) was for a bribe by a construction company (OAS), not Petrobras. Petrobras was at the center of the "Petrolao" scandal, where it took bribes in the form of kickbacks from contractors and passed them on to governing parties.

Looking forward to reading it when it's ready to share.

It also does run ad campaigns on policy issues or its own views on economic and social issues, though they're more indirect and advocacy-adjacent, closer to ESG stuff (but still sometimes timed with policy debates)

Having said that, there are a number of other formal and informal channels through which it can influence policy, since it has direct ties to the government as majority shareholder (e.g. some ministries appoint board members, govt nominates high-level executives, etc.).

Not an expert, but Petrobras is majority state owned, so not legally allowed to engage in any kind of election-related or partisan activities, nor is it allowed to engage in direct lobbying (also, there is no clear legal framework for lobbying in Brazil unlike the US).

Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models with R and Python Our world is complex. To make sense of it, data analysts routinely fit sophisticated statistical or machine learning models. Interpreting the results produced by such models can be challenging, and re...

I just ordered @vincentab.bsky.social 's epic new book Model to Meaning.

This project is one of the most exciting recent developments in data science. The book & #rstats / #python package show how to understand your model *within* its real-world context/use case.

www.routledge.com/Model-to-Mea...

YouTube video by Tiny Desk Brasil Céu : Tiny Desk Brasil

Absolutely beautiful performance.

Prosecuting the Powerful Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.

Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...

If people in government want my longer thoughts on why arbitrarily extending the time to ILR for people who are already here is bad (let alone the mass deportation policies of their rivals), and a sense of what I think a sustainable policy might be, then see:

benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...

New paper: LLMs are increasingly used to label data in political science. But how reliable are these annotations, and what are the consequences for scientific findings? What are best practices? Some new findings from a large empirical evaluation.
Paper: eddieyang.net/research/llm_annotation.pdf

BTW let's appreciate the sheer bathetic comedy of Trump's threats sliding from WE'RE GOING TO BAN ALL CRITICAL SOFTWARE WE WILL BRING YOUR ECONOMY TO A HALT down to WE'LL MAKE OUR OWN COOKING OIL SEE IF WE DON'T.